UFC Vegas 56: One Question for Every Fight
From the top to the bottom of Saturday's fight card, these are the things that capture my interest about each pairing this weekend
In the lede to this week’s Fight-By-Fight Preview, I likened this card to the opening hot sauce in the Hot Ones wings line-up and I think that a pretty solid comparison if I do say so myself.
No one struggles with that opening wing — it’s just a classic, simple way to get things started, much like this is a straightforward, basic way to kick off a three-month stretch with fights every Saturday. Some might want to skip over to some of the more spicy offerings right away, which is totally understandable, but anyone that sits down to take in this event knows what they’re getting into and should have a reasonably good time.
Now, can even standard wings turn out badly?
Of course — they can be poorly cooked, under- or over-sauced, depending on your tastes, or maybe they’re the tiny little wings that would prompt my dads throughout North American to make some variation of an “Are these chicken wings or pigeon wings?” joke to whomever is unfortunately within earshot.
But most of the time, wings are pretty solid, and this fight card should be no different.
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Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Q: Who will stand as the top heavyweight gatekeeper after Saturday?
Let’s be real about this: the Top 5 in the heavyweight division is pretty well established and Derrick Lewis holds down his own spot as a consistently entertaining chaos agent currently residing at No. 6 in the rankings, which leaves these two — the Nos. 7 and 8 fighters in the division — battling this weekend to see who becomes the top guy hopefuls have to beat before getting into the Octagon with one of those Top 5 talents.
It’s already been that way for each of them, as last year, both fought Ciryl Gane, and each has previously lost to Curtis Blaydes. Earlier this year, Volkov served that “final exam” roll for Tom Aspinall in London and the Team Kaobon man passed with flying colours. Now, rather than shuffling each in there with one of the few up-and-comers in the Top 15, they’re stationed opposite one another to see who continues to hold down their current position and who is forced to take a step back and serve that roll against the junior varsity.
I know that doesn’t sound particularly compelling to some (perhaps many) but these are the kinds of fights that keep divisions moving and build up a proper hierarchy in a given weight class, so while they’re not sexy fights, they’re vitally important to the overall ecosystem.
Additionally, if folks are going to moan about “unknown” lightweights with incredible upside on lengthy winning streaks being tabbed to headline a show like this later this month, I sure as shit don’t want to hear any further pissing and moaning about two established Top 10 heavyweights with nine combined main event assignments between them topping the card here.
You can’t have it both ways, you miserable, unsatisfied bastards.
Dan Ige vs. Movsar Evloev
Q: Is Evloev ready to take the next step?
These are the kinds of matchups I like the most in this entire sport: a pairing between an established veteran and an emerging talent that looks capable of being a contender, but has not yet passed that last hurdle to reach the Top 10.
Evloev is 5-0 in the UFC, 15-0 overall and 28 years old; he’s right in that spot where if he’s going to be a contender, he’s going to graduate to that spot in the next 12-18 months, and a win like this is the only thing standing in his way. Not that a loss here would preclude him from ever becoming a contender, it’s just that it would bump him back a step in his journey, making a victory or two mandatory before he gets another chance to clear this hurdle.
And Ige is quite a goddamn hurdle.
He’s basically stepped into the Jeremy Stephens role in the Top 10, beating those that are not quite ready to be contenders (Bektic, Barboza, Gavin Tucker), but coming up short in competitive, grimy battles with the select competitors stationed ahead of him in the rankings. He too has room to take that next step forward at some point in the next 18 months, and handing Evloev his first loss would be a good indication that he’s ready to do just that.
This should be a very instructional fight that serves as the opening bout in a collection of critical featherweight contests slated to take place over the next eight weeks. By the time August rolls around, we’ll have a very good idea of how things stack up in the 145-pound ranks, and it might look a little different than it does now.
Michael Trizano vs. Lucas Almeida
Q: Why can’t I get a good read on Trizano?
Trizano has been someone that piqued my interest from the time he beat Joe Giannetti to win the lightweight competition on Season 27 of The Ultimate Fighter, and not just because he donned a horrifically ugly American flag cowboy hat.
That win pushed his record to 7-0 and he moved to 8-0 with a split decision win over Luis Pena four months later in what a lot of people viewed as the real finale after Pena was forced out with an injury. After that, he moved down to featherweight, lost to Grant Dawson (understandable) and then missed two years of action. He returned with a win over Ludovit Klein, and then lost last time out to Hakeem Dawodu in a fight where he showed solid accuracy with his strikes, but simply didn’t throw enough.
Part of me wonders if the two years off really sapped his mojo and he’s still just really working himself back into “fighting regularly” shape? I also wonder if I’ve always kind of mislabeled him as a decent wrestler when he’s more of a jack-of-all-trades type? Furthermore, I question whether he’s just kind of topped out as a middle class featherweight, but I also think that maybe he’s best suited fighting at lightweight and he just needs to go back to ‘55 in order to find consistent success again.
This fight with Almeida is a chance to show whether he’s more than this, more than a guy that’s going to go 2-3 or 3-2 every five fights in the UFC. There is nothing wrong with being that guy — it’s infinitely better than going 0-3 and washing out — but he always kind of struck me as capable of more than that, and I’m curious to try and get a better read on what, if anything, is holding him back at the moment.
Poliana Botelho vs. Karine Silva
Q: Will Silva be someone the UFC can showcase going forward?
There is one reason and only one reason why this fight on the main card: Silva scored a second-round stoppage win on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) last fall and the hope is that the 28-year-old Brazilian can become an intriguing figure in the 125-pound weight class.
Botelho has been in the UFC been in the UFC for nearly five years. She’s 3-3 inside the Octagon, with wins over a tetra-pack of fighters that are no longer with the company, and losses to the three competitors she faced that are. She’s lost two straight and three of her last four, and she’ll be 34 at the end of the year, so it’s pretty safe to say that her ceiling has been established and it’s well below the Top 15 in the 125-pound weight class.
Silva has good size, good power, and reasonable finishing instincts for the division, having earned each of her last four detailed wins by stoppage, but she’s also been fighter marginal competition; her last five opponents produce a Natan Levy Number of (-2), which is not great given that one of them never fought again ever, and her DWCS opponent has yet to book her next fight.
This looks like a sendup of a DWCS grad who already has a stoppage in her highlight reel, and I’m interested to see if it works out the way the UFC is hoping, but also if Silva can convince me to pay close attention to her next fight at the same time.
Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Q: Where does Osbourne fit in the flyweight division?
For a guy that has only had four UFC appearance, Osbourne has had a weird career thus far.
The DWCS grad (Class of ‘19) has fought in three weight classes and had one catchweight bout, cobbling together a 2-2 record that includes a blistering finish and him being finished in blistering fashion. He’s ostensibly fought his last two bouts at flyweight (his last opponent missed weight, hence the catchweight fight) and has shown flashes through this run of being a potential action guy who routinely delivers entertaining fights, but I still don’t feel certain about that yet, and that is strange for me.
It’s not a “he still needs more time to develop” thing because I think I have a good read on where Osbourne tops out within the division, but rather that I don’t feel like I have anywhere near enough information to determine where his floor sits because he’s bounced around weight classes and got blitzed by Manel Kape in his flyweight debut.
Adashev is a solid, if unspectacular kickboxer coming off a solid win over Ryan Benoit where he looked sharp early, caught an injury, and struggled from then on, which means this should actually be a good chance to get a better read on Osbourne and where he will fit in the division long term… or at least what the baseline is for him.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov
Q: What can we possibly expect from Mozharov?
So I wrote this question in the afternoon — like at 3:30pm PST on Tuesday — while I was trying to be productive as I waited to go pick my wife up from work. I’d done some research on Mozharov already, got a bit of a feel for him, and jotted this down.
And then this hit my timeline Tuesday evening:
Not that I wasn’t already there, but now I’m even more in the “What the fuck is reasonable to expect from this dude on Saturday night?” camp!
Look, you wanna build your career facing randoms, crushing cans, and looking SWOLE on IG? Have at it, but when you land on the UFC roster, I have HUGE questions about what you actually bring to the table and right now, the only answers I can provide are muscles, tattoos, and zero wins over relevant fighters, as Cheick Kone is the most familiar name on Mozharov’s resume and he’s in the “professional opponent” stage of his career now.
What’s wild (at least to me) is that Menifield is just aggressive and wild and cardio-compromised enough that I’m not ruling out any outcome when it comes to this fight. This might be the most intrigued I’ve been for a bout like this all year. I can’t wait to see what this dude brings to the table on Saturday. I’m guessing it’s going to be not much, but who’s to say for sure at this point?
Felice Herrig vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Q: Care to question how difficult and cruel this sport can be?
It’s always wild to me how people can be so cavalier and dismissive of the challenges, hardships, and general anguish the men and women that step into the Octagon (or any combat sports venue) go through in their careers and for their entertainment. This fight feels like a reminder of all those things at once.
Herrig was in the midst of her best run in the UFC when she dropped a split decision to Kowalkiewicz at UFC 223. She lost her next fight to Michelle Waterson, blew out her ACL after that, spent two years on the sidelines, and returned to get tapped out in less than two minutes by Virna Jandiroba in the summer of 2020 before another nearly two-year hiatus.
That win over Herrig is the last win Kowalkiewicz registered, as she enters on a five-fight slide, having most recently been submitted in rapid fashion by Jessica Penne last August. She went from being 10-0 and challenging for championship gold at UFC 205 to 12-7 heading into Saturday’s contest, while also dealing with various personal health issues outside of the cage.
As much as we’re here to enjoy the fights and records matter and all that stuff, take a minute once in a while to recognize what these athletes put themselves through, how difficult it must be at times (all the time), and give them some love on whatever social media platform you prefer, rather than just giving them shit or being ambivalent about it all.
I’m glad to see these two women back doing what they love and genuinely wish they could each emerge victorious on Saturday. Unfortunately, that’s not how this cruel, cruel sport works.
Alex da Silva vs. Joe Solecki
Q: How will Solecki respond following his first UFC loss?
The first fight after any loss is always interesting to me, but even more so when it’s a fighter’s first UFC loss because how the athlete responds feels extremely instructive to me.
Solecki dropped a split decision to Jared Gordon last time out, snapping his three-fight UFC winning streak and his overall six-fight run of success. The last time he lost came by knockout against Nikolas Motta in a fight where you can honestly say he just got caught, and before that, it was in his fourth pro fight, which means he was still just figuring things out and caught a loss; these things happen.
But the DWCS grad (Class of ‘19) was probably feeling pretty confident about things heading into his fight with Gordon, having out-grappled Jim Miller in his previous appearance, and now it’s time to hit the reset button and try to get moving in the right direction again. On paper, this feels like a fight where if Solecki can close the distance and force da Silva to grapple, he should have success, as the Brazilian prefers to swing hammers, but he kind of hit a wall a little bit against Gordon and I’m curious to see how that impacts his performance this weekend, if at all.
I like Solecki — I think he can be a quality middle class lightweight for a long time, and perhaps work a little higher than that with a couple breaks and a little more development, but I really want to see how he responds to that setback in this one.
Damon Jackson vs. Daniel Argueta
Q: Can “The Leech” keep rolling?
Jackson is having a nice little second run in the UFC, entering Saturday’s contest on a two-fight winning streak and having won three of four since returning to the fold. After dominating and submitting Kamuela Kirk last time out, the Fortis MMA man called for a meeting with a ranked opponent, but it didn’t come to pass, as Jackson initially landed opposite fellow veteran Darrick Minner, who was forced to withdraw and replaced by Argueta.
As much as this isn’t the fight Jackson had lobbied for, it’s still an opportunity for “The Leech” to post a third straight victory and really solidify himself as a terrific veteran presence just outside the Top 15.
The 33-year-old is one of those guys that got to the UFC without really being tested in a major way, stumbled, and got bounced back to the regional circuit. He was in the right place at the right time for a return to the roster, rallied to beat Bektic and has been solid in his last two efforts against guys that are a cut or two below the upper tier… and every division needs those guys and to have a couple of those guys on the kind of little run Jackson is on right now.
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Niklas Stolze
Q: Can Saint Denis show more than ridiculous toughness?
Saint Denis made his promotional debut last fall at UFC 267, losing to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a fight that could have been stopped at multiple points in the first two rounds, and turned into a “How is this guy still standing and firing back?” type of experience.
While some people like to marvel at that kind of resolve and toughness — and I get it, to a degree — praising someone for their toughness in this sport usually means they can take a beating and keep coming forward, which isn’t exactly what you want as the top bullet point under “Traits and Abilities” on your CV. Like as much as Darren Elkins has made a career about being able to take punishment and still press on, I guarantee he would much rather get out of there quickly without having to rally back every single time...
And so this weekend, I want to see what else Saint Denis brings to the table besides clearly being able to take some big shots and not go to sleep.
I think people conflate a fighter surviving until the end of a fight as Saint Denis did against EZDS with the referee making the right call in not stopping the fight, and I don’t think those things are necessarily linked in that way. The fight could have been stopped, it wasn’t, and now we all recognize what a tough cuss Saint Denis is, but you’ve got to be more than that to get by in this sport today, at least at this level.
Tony Gravely vs. Johnny Munoz Jr.
Q: Has Gravely addressed his conditioning issues?
Calling them “conditioning issues” probably isn’t fair, because I don’t think that Gravely is in bad shape or lacks cardio. What I mean is this:
Gravely works a grappling-heavy approach that takes a lot of energy, and as such, he has a tendency to get tired as fights continue to progress and he’s forced to continually work for takedowns, fight to maintain position, and work on the feet. There have been multiple instances where he’ll be rolling around, scoring takedowns and doing his thing, only for the energy stores to run dry and his opponent come rallying back.
I don’t know how you address those things — rigorous cardio and conditioning? — but it’s the kind of thing that will continue to work against, and quite frankly limit Gravely if he can’t remedy it in the future, especially given that he’s a little chinny. It’s one thing if you’re spent from grinding, but are defensively responsible and can take a shot, but we’ve seen Gravely get tagged and put on skates, and the risk of that only increases when you’re exhausted.
This should be more of a grappling and scrambling contest, so it will be interesting to see how his gas tank holds up and what it tells us about his prospects going forward.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jeff Molina
Q: How quickly will Molina progress up the flyweight ranks?
I know how quickly I would like to see Molina progress up the flyweight ranks (not quickly at all; he’s 24 with 12 fights), but the reality is that life in a relatively shallow division can often mean prospects get pushed a little quicker than they should.
Zane Simon lists 40 fighters in the flyweight division at the moment, and with 16 of those being the champion and those ranked in the Top 15, that leaves 23 potential opponents for Molina; 21 if you eliminate Daniel Lacerda, who he beat last time out, and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, whom he’s facing this weekend.
Provided Molina wins this weekend, there is still room and time for fights against unranked foes like Malcolm Gordon or Francisco Figueredo or the winner of the Adashev-Osbourne fight higher up on this card, but after that, you’re starting to get into “… and now you’re facing a ranked opponent” territory and that’s tricky. I know I advocate for athletes not having to win 7-10 fights before getting a championship opportunity all the time, however there is also something to be said for not hustling relatively young, relatively inexperienced fighters into the deep end of the talent pool too quickly, as it’s a good way to stunt their progression.
It’s not that I don’t think Molina will be capable of hanging with fighters in the lower third of the Top 15 a couple fights from now — I think he could hang with a couple of them tomorrow if necessary — it’s that I want to see young talents get every opportunity to progress on a gradual scale, rather than take these huge jumps the could lead to unnecessary falls.
Small steps forwards and back; not big peaks and deep valleys.
Andreas Michailidis vs. Rinat Fakheretdinov
Q: Where will Fakhretdinov fit in the welterweight division?
This is actually two questions in one because as much as I want to know where within the hierarchy the Russian newcomer will slot in, I’m also curious to see if he will actually be competing in the welterweight division, as Saturday’s bout against Michailidis is the first time to my knowledge and research that Fakhretdinov has fought at 170 pounds since a one-off in 2018 against a French stand-in named Kevin Oliver.
Do I question that he can make the weight? No.
Do I question whether he needs to fight at welterweight? Yeah. I mean, middleweight is a wide open field while welterweight has tons of talent, so why not skip the weight cut, fight where you’ve been having success, and have the drop to ‘70 in your back pocket should things go sideways at ‘85?
What’s weird about this matchup is that each of them is dropping down, which means this is the third weight class for Michailidis in four fights, as he debuted at light heavyweight with a loss, fought twice at middleweight, and now targets welterweight.
And from a “where does he slot in talent-wise” perspective, Fakhretdinov is one of those guys that has largely faced cannon fodder throughout his career, with a couple former UFC competitors that appear to be trending towards “professional opponent” status. His Natan Levy Number is (+8) which looks terrific, but it’s skewed by having faced one opponent that has gone 20-5 since their meeting, which drags that number from an ugly negative to something more presentable.
TL;DR version: Fakhretdinov is a complete question mark to me on every level.
Erin Blanchfield vs. JJ Aldrich
Q: What in the hell is this fight doing opening the show?
I know I’m the guy that says fight card placement doesn't matter, but once again, I say that in regards to how we talk about these competitors, and this fight is a perfect illustration of that because it has absolutely no business being the first bout of the evening.
I would argue this is the third best fight on the card, behind the final two pairings, and yet it’s stationed here, as the curtain-jerker, where it’s quite possibly going to run at 9am PST on Saturday, which makes zero sense. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t talk about how much upside Blanchfield has (bushels) or how tough and durable and generally solid Aldrich is (she’s all of those things), but good grief do I ever need someone to explain this one to me.
This is precisely what Luke Thomas would refer to as promotional malpractice, especially given how so many people popped for Blanchfield’s last fight against Miranda Maverick, which took place on the early prelims of a pay-per-view show. Everyone in the industry recognizes that she could develop into a contender within the next couple years, and now she’s faced with a stern, veteran challenge, and it’s the opening fight of the night, stationed behind a handful of very low stakes contests featuring relatively inexperienced UFC talents?
What gives?
All of the above stated and established, all it really means is that you, dear reader, need to be watching from the opening fight on Saturday, even if you then dip out until the main card or the final two fights or whatever, because Blanchfield is legit and Aldrich is a gamer and this is a terrific fight that people need to see.