Cards like this are the most nerve-racking for me when it comes to making predictions.
Last week? Yeah, I had a pretty good sense of how things would play out across most of the fights, and while I got a couple wrong, that’s bound to happen from time-to-time.
But this week? This week is one big banana skin.
While there are a couple fights I’m pretty confident in my assessment of how they’ll go, for the most part, this is a well-matched card where it’s conceivable that either side could emerge victorious. Outside of the short-notice bout between David Onama and Garrett Armfield, no one is more than a -250 favourite (Caio Borralho, Jamie Mullarkey) and no one is greater than a +225 dog (Douglas Silva de Andrade), which is basically the oddsmakers’ way of saying, “We’re not sure how these are going to play out either!”
The hilarious part — where hilarious means “Spencer might have some actual issues” — is that I relish these opportunities more than I do the cards like last week where I had a great sense of things. Going 8-3 with a No Contest last week is solid, almost standard, but putting up an 8-4 or better this week would be an achievement, given how even and difficult to diagnose most of these matchups are on Saturday.
Here’s to challenges!
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Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
I adore fights like this because they’re bound to provide us vital information about where each fighter stands in the hierarchy right now.
Dos Anjos has looked good in his two bouts since returning to lightweight, but each was against a short-notice replacement, so it was expected that he would flourish. Prior to that, he’d struggled in bouts like this against younger, ascending competitors, and not just during his welterweight run either; Tony Ferguson was still on the come-up when he beat RDA in Mexico City as well.
As for Fiziev, he’s won five straight since getting blasted in no time flat in his UFC debut, and enters off a third-round stoppage win over Brad Riddell. Those fights have played out largely on the feet and Dos Anjos is likely going to look to test his takedown defence in this one. Additionally, this is his first five-round assignment in the UFC, and while conditioning has never appeared to be an issue in the past, a main event against a veteran looking to grapple brings a completely new set of circumstances to deal with.
Prediction: Click Play on the Video Above for My Pick
Caio Borralho vs. Armen Petrosyan
So I’m picking Borralho and while I feel fairly confident with that selection here, I’m still not sold going forward.
The reason I’m confidently picking him here is because Petrosyan got taken down three times in a fight that lasted four minutes on Dana White’s Contender Series, and while that guy (Kaloyan Kolev) couldn’t keep him on the deck or avoid getting clubbed, Borralho should have no such issues. I honestly think three takedowns — one in each round — would be enough to secure him the unanimous decision victory, if he wanted to play it hella safe, hang out in top position, and just frustrated and neutralize the kickboxer.
The more likely scenario, however, is that once Borralho gets Petrosyan on the deck, he hunts a submission, and probably finds one.
Prediction: Caio Borralho
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
If he fights with anywhere near the urgency and sharpness he displayed against Cody Stamann, Nurmagomedov should win this one handily.
He’s a dangerous striker and opportunistic grappler who should get opportunities to do both as Silva de Andrade has never met a fistfight he didn’t like and, while possessing legit power and a quality submission arsenal of his own, tends to get a little loose with things, which creates situations where he can get stung and stuck in nightmarish positions.
Now, having said that, I would not be at all surprised to see the Brazilian come out and connect with something hellacious while Nurmagomedov was trying to do too much — a big right mid-spin, a takedown and choke off a lazy kick attempt; something like that. “D-Silva” is brimming with confidence after consecutive stoppage wins and if Nurmagomedov takes him even the slightest bit lightly, he could slip up.
But the most likely outcome is Nurmagomedov fighting reasonably smart, having success, and securing another victory.
Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov
Jared Vanderaa vs. Chase Sherman
Vanderaa ain’t great, but he’s good enough to get inside, put Sherman on the mat, and find a submission like each of his last two opponents have. Worst case, he takes Sherman down and pounds out a finish from top position.
Either way, I don’t see this lasting more than a round.
If it does, all bets are off because Vanderaa is infinitely hittable and we’re talking about the big boys, so a couple good power shots can dramatically impact the course of the fight, which is why we’re probably going to see the DWCS alum do everything in his power to get this to the deck early, where he can put his ground-and-pound or his submission game to use.
Prediction: Jared Vanderaa
Cynthia Calvillo vs. Nina Nunes
Is it weird that I’m picking this based mostly off Calvillo’s last result?
On paper, I think this is mostly a coin-flip fight — Calvillo should have a little grappling advantage, Nunes a slight edge in the striking, and the tale of the tape is virtually identical. So while Nunes got quickly tapped in her first fight back after giving birth to her daughter and that fight was more than a year ago, I like that she’s moving up a division here, and can’t shake that Calvillo had zero to offer Andrea Lee eight months ago.
Nunes isn’t quite as athletic as Lee, but she brings a similar kick-heavy, steady offensive pressure game, and if Calvillo wilted and couldn’t fire then, I’m going to need to see something from her here before I can fathom picking her again, at least when she’s in a competitive matchup like this. I’m all for corners stopping fights and think we should see it far more often than we do, but I’m also wary of those situations, especially when no one was thinking that would be the outcome of that fight.
I expect Nunes to deliver something similar to her performance against Claudia Gadelha here — work in space, land and move, fight out of the clinch and avoid takedowns; lather, rinse, repeat, as needed.
Prediction: Nina Nunes
Michael Johnson vs. Jamie Mullarkey
I really don’t understand why Mullarkey is as big a favourite in this fight as Borralho is in his bout, as I don’t see a clear path to victory for the Australian here like I do for the Brazilian in the co-main event.
In fact, I actually think Johnson wins this fight, so g’head and get your underdog on, friends.
Look, I get that “The Menace” has been wildly inconsistent and mostly underwhelming over the last (looks at watch) half-dozen years or so, but look at the level of competition he’s faced? Now look at the level of competition Mullarkey has faced, including who he beat (two guys that aren’t in the UFC any longer) and who beat him (the two best fighters he faced, plus Fares Ziam), and now try to tell me I’m crazy for thinking Johnson finds a way to get this done?
The former Ultimate Fighter finalist looked sharp in his win over Alan Patrick earlier this year, and won’t have to deal with as much length or movement or spinning attacks here. This should be a straight up boxing match with the occasional threat of a takedown thrown in, and while the punters seem to side with Mullarkey (like they didn't against Jalin Turner), I’m siding with Johnson to find a home for his still sharp left hand.
Prediction: Michael Johnson
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Preliminary Card Picks
Aiemann Zahabi def. Ricky Turcios
Cortney Casey def. Antonina Shevchenko
Tresean Gore def. Cody Brundage
David Onama def. Garrett Armfield
Kennedy Nzechukwu def. Karl Roberson
Ronnie Lawrence def. Saidyokub Kakhramonov
2022 PDP Record: 174-93-0, 1 NC (.649)
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