Fighters to Watch 2021, Part I: Strawweight & Flyweight
A detailed look at the expansive collection of fighters to keep tabs on as we head into the new year, starting with the 115- and 125-pound divisions.
Whenever I get ready to sit down and put together something gigantic like this — and this is going to be massive, which is why I’m breaking it up into three parts and not just dropping a 10,000 word tome to kick off the year — I have an internal discussion with myself about why it matters so much to me.
Why do I want to spend a number of hours stationed behind this keyboard, combing through the UFC roster, building out a spreadsheet of all the competitors I’m looking forward to seeing more from and enjoying in 2021 like some kind of obsessive, breaking down each weight class into six categories: Champion, Contenders, In the Mix, Emerging, Prospects, and Wild Cards.
My guess is that less than 30 people will check out this post and less than 100 will view the project as a whole, less than five of whom will even sign up for the free subscription. The ROI on this venture in terms of clicks versus time invested is terrible, but it doesn’t matter, and it gets back to that internal discussion I have with myself about why I’m doing this.
I do this because this is how I wish the sport was covered — with incredible depth and detail and excitement and anticipation, where nerding out about someone with one UFC appearance and only moderate upside wasn’t dismissed as being a shill or a try-hard or something fake because so many people would rather shit on everything and find the negative in everything.
I do this because seeing it suggested that Deiveson Figueiredo and Kevin Holland were “unknown” or “anonymous” heading into last year doesn’t sit right with me, given that the former was a standout contender in a division everyone always claims to love and the latter had showed promise through his first five UFC appearances, winning three straight between a short-notice debut loss to Thiago Santos and a submission defeat to emerging standout Brendan Allen.
I do this because even if less than 30 people read this, I want to be on record as paying attention to each and every one of the 284 fighters whose names are going to grace this three-part series — not in an “I like (insert brand) before they were cool and I want to lord it over you” way; I just want it stated that someone is paying attention, even if it’s just one guy on the West Coast of Canada, because ultimately, we all want to know someone is paying attention and appreciative of our work.
And I appreciate what all these athletes have done in advance of this year and can’t wait to see what they do in 2021.
STRAWWEIGHT
CHAMPION
Zhang Weili: the 31-year-old titleholder only fought once in 2020, but made the absolute most of it, pairing with Joanna Jedrzejczyk to co-author the Fight of the Year. In addition to extending her winning streak to 21, the performance cemented her standing as the top strawweight in the sport, highlighted her talents and toughness, and positioned Zhang as a potential major star if she is able to maintain her place atop the division for an extended period of time.
CONTENDERS
Joanna Jedrzejczyk: the former champion is in a strange position in her career, heading into 2021 with a 2-4 record over her last six fights where each of those losses came in championship fights, with two of them — her second fight with Rose Namajunas and last year’s classic with Zhang — being tight, competitive affairs.
It’s going to be interesting to see how Jedrzejczyk is booked to start the year and how that fight plays out. She’s still a contender, but will she earn another title shot, become a Joseph Benavidez type who knocks off other hopefuls, or will 2021 be the year she starts to slide down the rankings or makes a switch to the 125-pound weight class?
Rose Namajunas: “Thug Rose” rebounded from her championship loss to Jessica Andrade in 2019 by landing on the happy side of a split decision verdict in the 2020 rematch, starting fast and holding on down the stretch as the Brazilian tried to rally.
The 28-year-old feels like she is first in line to challenge for the title this year and has refuted Dana White’s suggestion that she’s not interested. She’s a sharp, technical fighter with an abundance of talent and room to still grow, which is why I hope we get more than one appearance from Namajunas in 2021.
Yan Xiaonan: “Nine” has won all six of her UFC appearances to date and is unbeaten in a dozen straight, with 11 victories and one No Contest. After wrapping up 2019 with a win over Angela Hill, the 31-year-old Chinese fighter posted consecutive decision wins over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Claudia Gadelha, putting herself on the short list of potential title challengers.
This is obviously going to be a pivotal year for Yan, who is squarely in the “biggest fight of her career” from this point forward. She could get paired with either of her fellow contenders above or stationed opposite one of the handful of competitors working their way up the ranks and needing a win over an established contender to join that group themselves.
IN THE MIX
Carla Esparza: Dana White mentioned that Esparza might get the next title shot, which was both a little surprising and totally reasonable given that the inaugural strawweight champion has earned four straight victories. The reason for the surprise is that three of those four triumphs were narrow victories, as she chased a majority decision nod against Alexa Grasso with consecutive split decision victories over Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez.
Esparza has done an excellent job of carving out a niche for herself in the strawweight division, holding steady as a Top 10 fixture and perennial fringe contender, but can she take the next step and actually become a bona fide contender? The question may be moot if she is awarded the next title shot, however I’m more inclined to believe Namajunas will face Zhang and “The Cookie Monster” will have to prove herself deserving in a high profile pairing early in 2021.
Part of the reason Esparza isn’t listed as a contender is that even as the first champion in the division’s history, it has never felt like the promotion was particularly interested in hustling her back into the title chase. The other part is that she got smashed by Jedrzejczyk in their championship fight and rag-dolled by Tatiana Suarez when they fought, so I kind of think she’s a flimsy contender at best.
Angela Hill: after registering her first UFC stoppage win in September 2019, Hill decided to do her best Donald Cerrone impression by fighting (and winning) in both January and February. Success resulted in a step up in competition and a shift in her results, as “Overkill” dropped consecutive split decisions to Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson to close out 2020.
One could make a case that Hill won each of those contests (they were close fights), but the more important part is that the former Ultimate Fighter contestant, who debuted in the UFC with just a single professional fight on her resume, has morphed into a fringe contender and legitimate Top 10 talent in the strawweight ranks, and could very well take another step forward in the next 12 months.
Kanako Murata: maybe declaring Murata “in the mix” is a little premature after just a single UFC appearance and victory, but the Japanese standout won the Invicta FC strawweight title before shuffling into the Octagon and thoroughly out-hustled Randa Markos in her promotional debut, so if she hasn’t earned this spot yet, she’s getting mighty close.
The 27-year-old has a tremendous background in judo and wrestling, as well as an eight-fight winning streak, a good team at home in Japan, a ton of quality partners at CSA and Team Alpha Male when she comes to train in the United States, and the backing of Sakuraba, who gave her his mask and okayed her to use his walkout music.
If Sakuraba is in on a fighter, I’m in on a fighter, and eager to see what next year produces.
Amanda Ribas: the super-happy, ultra-energetic Brazilian followed up her 2-0 rookie campaign with a 2-0 sophomore season in the Octagon, defeating Randa Markos in March before submitting Paige VanZant in July. Now 4-0 in the UFC and 10-1 overall, Ribas is one of the brightest young stars on the roster and someone who is going to be a fixture in the title conversation for years to come, starting as soon as this summer.
Currently slated to face Marina Rodriguez towards the end of January, a fifth consecutive UFC triumph (and sixth straight win overall) would elevate her to being a contender, but it will be curious to see how she acquits herself from here on out. As great as she’s looked — and she’s looked phenomenal — Ribas is still only 27 and has yet to face any high-end talent, so while she could continue to excel, she could stumble as well, which is what makes this year such an intriguing one for the emerging standout.
Marina Rodriguez: the Brazilian began her UFC tenure with a 2-0-2 record in four fights, but landed in the loss column for the first time in 2020, falling on the short side of a 2-1 split opposite Esparza in July. She now gone two fights without a victory and has a date with Amanda Ribas on tap next, so a three-fight slide isn’t out of the question.
The bout with Ribas may not answer the questions I have about Rodriguez and whether she’s reached her ceiling in the strawweight division because I believe Ribas will be a contender by the end of the year, if not sooner, but we should know by the end of the year. There is nothing wrong with maxing out in the 7-10 range — plenty of people have enjoyed tremendous overall careers never really ascending beyond that point — and I’m curious to know whether that’s as far as Rodriguez will climb or if she’s just hit a speed bump on her way to holding down a place in the Top 5 and becoming a contender herself.
Tecia Torres: a four-fight losing streak made many wonder if Torres’ days a Top 10 fighter were over, but the “Tiny Tornado” enters 2021 on a two-fight winning streak after out-hustling Brianna Van Buren in June and piecing up short-notice replacement Sam Hughes last month.
Torres would probably be best suited to fighting in the atomweight division (though I’m not sure how she would lose an additional 10 pounds), but even as an undersized strawweight, she had the quickness and technical skills to serve as a constant presence in the 7-10 range. What’s going to be interesting to see in the year ahead is whether she can parlay her recent success into bigger opportunities and perhaps finally clear that last hurdle and become a legitimate contender for the first time.
Michelle Waterson: a lot of what I said about Torres applies to Waterson as well, as the 34-year-old has hung around the fringes of contention from the outset of her UFC career, but has failed to score that signature win that elevates her into title contention. The difference, in my opinion, is that there has always and will always be greater interest in seeing “The Karate Hottie” succeed, which means despite her track record, more opportunities are always in the offing.
She edged out Hill to halt a two-fight slide, and was slated to face Ribas before being forced to withdraw. She’s faced a lot of the top names in the division, so it’s difficult to see a way forward for Waterson at this point, unless she’s tabbed to face Yan or paired off with one of the division’s wild cards later in the year.
EMERGING
Mackenzie Dern: she stumbled at the end of 2019, suffering her first career loss (to Ribas), but flashed her top-end potential in 2020, becoming the first woman to earn a leg lock finish inside the Octagon and collecting a trio of quality victories overall.
Dern is dynamic on the ground, but hasn’t quite figured out how to force fights to the canvas, which will be key. As much as it’s great that she’s working with Jason Parillo and has flashed toughness and pop on her feet, her best chance to making a move up the divisional ladder is by playing to her strengths.
We won’t have to wait very long to find out what kind of year it could be for Dern, as she’s scheduled to face Nina Ansaroff in April, which should indicate whether she’s going to keep rolling or hold steady for a couple fights as she continues honing her all-around skill set now that she’s facing Top 15 competition.
Virna Jandiroba: the former Invicta FC champ dropped a close fight to Dern in December and fell to Esparza in her promotional debut, with victories over Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig in between. She’s positioned her in the lower third of the rankings with the potential to climb higher, but like many in this group, it’s all about how these next couple fights play out.
Does she settle in as a fringe Top 10 fighter, serving as a stiff litmus test? Does she get a little more comfortable and move into the Top 10, falling into a Waterson-esque space? Or does she take a step back, slipping from the rankings and becoming more of a “win one, lose one” type?
Amanda Lemos: the 33-year-old Brazilian is someone I really don’t have a strong read on and it excites me. She's won back-to-back fights following a two-year suspension, and is 8-1-1 overall, but has faced limited competition and is a complete unknown in terms of where her ceiling rests.
I have my guesses, but I’d much rather have actual evidence to base my impressions on, so I’m super-eager to see her get back in the Octagon, ideally against an established veteran or fighter in the lower third of the rankings. I wouldn’t be shocked if she made a run towards the Top 10, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see her stumble against a ranked opponent or established foe either, which is why I simply want to see her fight a couple more times so that I can get a clearer read on where she fits in the division.
Mallory Martin: there is a toughness and tenacity to Martin that is hard to ignore and easy to like, and it’s why I’m really interested in seeing where her career goes next.
She didn’t get a contract after winning on the Contender Series, but went to Invicta, got a good win, and got called up to the UFC, losing to Jandiroba in her debut. After getting blasted in the first round in her next fight against Hannah Cifers, Martin rallied to record a second-round submission win, showing the kind of resilience and grit you just can’t teach.
Working with the crew at Elevation Fight Team is a huge positive, and having AKA connections is a plus as well. She’s 6-1 over her last seven after losing two straight to very good fighters early in her career, so continued improvements and developments could result in her emerging as a contender in the next 12-18 months, depending on how things shake out.
Brianna Van Buren: following a breakout return to action in 2019, it looked like 2020 could be a big year for “The Bull,” but she stumbled in her lone assignment against Torres and now she heads into 2021 looking to regain the momentum she lost as a result.
She too is probably best suited for atomweight, but she showed with her Phoenix series win in 2019 that she’s still more than capable of handling her business in the 115-pound weight class. Torres was too skilled, too experienced, too smart for Van Buren, but that doesn’t mean she can’t regroup, learn from that setback, and make the charge many anticipated in 2020 in the year ahead.
PROSPECTS
Cheyanne Buys: one of five women to earn a UFC contract this past season on the Contender Series, Buys is a relentless, punishing fighter who actually wants to go the distance because then she gets more opportunity to swing on her opponents; true story.
She looked great in her summer appearance inside the Apex, mauling Hilarie Rose while pushing her winning streak to four. Training out of Fortis MMA is a massive positive, as is the fact that her husband, JP Buys, is a solid prospect as well. The 25-year-old has flashed solid potential throughout her career, but the real tests are still ahead of her, starting with a pairing against fellow prospect Kay Hansen.
Her first year in the UFC will go a long way to determining what her future may look like, and a win over Hansen would be an impressive way to start.
Kay Hansen: I picked Hansen as my top prospect in the division, even though she’s coming off a loss to Cory McKenna, because she’s already shown a strong submission game and the kind of steely resolve that often turns good fighters in to great fighters. I’m not a big fan of the matchup with Buys because a quality prospect is automatically catching a loss, but given that she’s 21, a second straight setback wouldn’t be the end of the world for the undeniably talented Hansen.
With all the attention Maycee Barber got earlier in her career, I’m surprised Hansen hasn’t received more, as she might have a better shot at breaking Jon Jones’ record for being the youngest UFC champion of all time than Barber does at this point.
Loma Lookboonme: while the other three women in this grouping have the potential to emerge as contenders in the next 18-24 months, I believe Lookboonme is more of a long-term prospect, having only made the shift to MMA from Muay Thai at the start of 2018.
She looked good in her debut win over Aleksandra Albu in 2019 and rebounded nicely from a too much, too soon bout against Angela Hill in February with a quality win over Jinh Yu Frey. With more experience and more training, the 24-year-old from Thailand could grow into a Top 15 fixture and a consistently entertaining member of the strawweight ranks.
Cory McKenna: “The Hobbit” outworked then-LFA champ Vanessa Demopoulos to earn a UFC contract this summer, then narrowly edged out Hansen on the cards in her promotional debut, pushing her record to 6-1 overall.
I love that she started competing in Cage Warriors right out of the gate because facing quality competition and getting those “big show” jitters out of the way early should make her continued assimilation into the strawweight ranks easier; training at Team Alpha Male should help as well. McKenna is more powerful than her baby face suggests and should flourish in the future, provided she doesn’t get hustled up the divisional ladder too soon.
WILD CARDS
Nina Ansaroff: the 35-year-old veteran hasn’t fought since losing to Tatiana Suarez in June 2019, having taken the last 18 months off to have a child with her wife, UFC “Champ-Champ” Amanda Nunes.
Prior to her loss to Suarez and pregnancy hiatus, Ansaroff had won four straight, showing the best form of her career, blending her karate-based striking with quality clinch work en route to wins over Angela Hill, Randa Markos, and Claudia Gadelha. She remained active in the gym throughout her pregnancy and an immediate return to form isn’t out of the question, plus she’s paired off with Dern, which means it won’t take long to find out if “The Strina” is going to resume being a contender or have to take a step back as she gets back into the swing of things.
Claudia Gadelha: it’s been a weird three years for Gadelha, who has remained in the Top 10, but looked nothing like the perennial contender and former title challenger she was earlier in the her career. Though she’s 3-2 during that time, you could make a case that she should be 1-4, as she’s benefitted from a couple split decision verdicts going her way, and while there is no questioning her toughness or pedigree, I’m curious to see which way her career goes from here.
Gadelha has the talent to squeeze out a few more years as a fringe contender, but she could just as easily hit a sharp decline at any point now after more than a dozen years competing in the cage. Shifting her training to New Jersey has tightened up her boxing and improved her cardio (a little), but she’s no longer the dominant athlete she was earlier in her career and quicker, more active foes tend to give her fits.
We’ve seen numerous veterans go through a lull before making one last run, but I’m not sure Gadelha has that in her at this point, which is why I’m curious to see her compete again in 2021.
Livinha Souza: when she was fighting under the Invicta FC banner, I thought Souza was destined to be a divisional standout for years on end — she had the swagger and skills and with more experience, I believed she’d become a dominant force, but that hasn’t been the case.
She’s been limited to four fights over the last three years, and though she’s 3-1 in those outings, only her UFC debut against the overmatched (and now retired) Alex Chambers was particularly impressive. I’m not sure what it is that has halted her rise and stifled her development, but this feels like a make or break year for Souza in terms of becoming a contender.
Injuries have been part of the issue, so hopefully she can return to health and a more active schedule because even if she doesn’t become the dominant fighter I once envisioned, she’s still a consistently entertaining addition to the division.
Tatiana Suarez: there might not be a bigger question mark in the UFC at this point than Suarez, who is 8-0 overall and was in line for a title shot before a neck injury put her on the sidelines following her June 2019 win over Ansaroff. It’s mostly been crickets since, and if she can’t make it back soon, her championship window could close… or at least reach the point where it’s only left open a crack and she’ll really have to work to get it back open.
The longer she’s out, the more Suarez feels like a potential “What If”— an undeniable talent who never got the chance to really prove it because her career was undone by injuries. She dominated in each of her first three UFC appearances and still beat Ansaroff handily despite dealing with the neck problems that have kept her sidelined since, so projecting her as a contender and potential champion wasn’t a stretch.
If she does come back, the 30-year-old Californian and cancer survivor will need a tune-up fight or two (IMO) before getting back into the thick of the chase, but if she’s anywhere near the fighter she was before this absence, it likely wouldn’t take long for her to reclaim her position near the top of the list of contenders.
Polyiana Viana: there are a bunch of fighters that it will always take me longer to abandon than others and Viana is one of those, most likely because she is responsible for the lone blemish on Amanda Ribas’ record and I just can’t comprehend how you beat Ribas, but struggle against Hannah Cifers?
Now, the obvious answer is that the former happened more than five years ago when Ribas was green and Viana hasn’t really progressed since then, but just when I was ready to be out on the 28-year-old Brazilian, she rolls into the Octagon at the end of August and scores a two-minute submission win over Emily Whitmire, pulling me right back in.
She’s paired off with Martin in the middle of February, and the outcome of that one should make it clear whether she has a future in the division or if I’m going to have to find a way to quit her in 2021.
FLYWEIGHT
CHAMPION
Valentina Shevchenko: y’all may be at the point with “Bullet” where her losing a round and not completely mauling opponents is cause for concern or hand-wringing, but me, I’m over here fascinated by the dominant champion, eager to see her do her thing each and every time she steps into the cage.
Now that she’s worked her way through the “solid, but nothing special” challengers, several of who remain, Shevchenko could face her first truly serious threat in 2021 and I’m absolutely dying to see how it plays out because from a skill standpoint, there are few in the UFC with the kind of complete arsenal the champion brings to the Octagon.
And if she wins her eventual showdown with Jessica Andrade, it’s going to be time to really start talking about both a third bout with Amanda Nunes and the potential for 32-year-old to make a run at Demetrious Johnson’s record for consecutive successful title defences.
I know she’s only at four now and the record is 11, but two or three every year for the next three years and she’s there. It’s not out of the question; that’s all I’m saying.
CONTENDERS
Jessica Andrade: it’s impossible not to like the way Andrade fights or to quibble with her results, as the former strawweight champion has only lost to elite talent since departing the bantamweight division, where she was grossly undersized, yet still managed to produce a winning record.
She moved to flyweight in October and immediately made herself a contender by roasting the insides of former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian, and it’s her ferocious approach and uncanny strength/power combo that makes her such an intriguing addition to the division and threat to Shevchenko.
We’ve been looking for the challenger that could really push the champion and if anyone is going to be able to do it, it’s going to be Andrade.
Katlyn Chookagian: “Blonde Fighter” gets huge props in my books because after each of her last two losses (Shevchenko, Andrade), she’s come right back in a couple of months and earned clean, unanimous decision wins over solid competition. That tells you she’s legit and she’s not going anywhere, which makes her a crucial and interesting figure in this division.
At this point, she’s not moving beyond No. 2 in the division, but she can cause a whole lot of chaos hanging out there, out-working and out-pointing anyone and everyone hoping to land themselves a title shot. She did it to Cynthia Calvillo last time out, and there aren’t many fighters in the division I would against her at this point.
Watching her potentially thrive as a spoiler in the Joseph Benavidez style would be really, really fun.
Jennifer Maia: so now that everyone has finally realized that Maia is legit because she took a round of Shevchenko, I hope they keep that same energy when the Brazilian returns to action and looks to steady herself in the Top 5 in 2021.
The former Invicta FC champ seems to have put prior weight cutting issues behind her and could end up being the 1B to Chookagian’s 1A as a tandem that busts up hopefuls and ruins their title dreams at the top of the division. Honestly, if they both do that for the next 12-18 months, posting 3-4 wins each, you pair them up again and give the winner another title shot.
You’re welcome, UFC matchmakers.
Lauren Murphy: if you’re looking for someone who is going to make a whole bunch of noise guaranteed in 2021, look no further than Murphy, who has been stumping for a title shot since posting her fourth straight win in October.
On the one hand, four consecutive victories is the best of anyone in the Top 5, so she has a case, but none of those wins have come against Top 5 competition, and one doesn’t generally collect a title opportunity after beating a short-notice newcomer who hasn’t fought anyone of consequence.
Murphy might be the only person on this list who is here because I’m curious to see if she won’t fight, opting instead to take a “title fight or bust” approach. It’s a risky, risky play, but so too is rolling the dice against one of the other contenders listed ahead of her, so either way, it’s going to be real interesting to see how things shake out.
IN THE MIX
Viviane Araujo: while the rest of the fighters in this section have all been close to contention or had their opportunities already, Araujo is the lone member of the group that feels like she still has the potential to take another step forward and graduate to the contender class.
She's 3-1 in the UFC and lost to Eye two fights ago, which could be a case of stumbling in your first big assignment just as much as it could be an indication of where she tops out. The Cerrado MMA product bounced back with a good win over Montana De La Rosa last time out and is slated to face Roxanne Modafferi on January 20, which should provide a strong indication of where she’s at and what the rest of 2021 holds.
It’s not a must-win fight in terms of her UFC career, but if she wants to take another step forward, that’s a must-win fight.
Joanne Calderwood: raise your hand if you knew Calderwood just turned 35? For the record, my hand is not up because I was surprised as hell to find out she’s that old, and it actually has me rethinking putting her in this group.
When her title fight with Shevchenko was delayed this summer, Calderwood rolled the dice by taking a fight with Maia and ended up paying a hefty price, getting subbed out in the first round to lose her spot in the pecking order and raise further questions about her ability (or inability) to win key fights. If you go back through her resume, it shows that she’s excelled against overmatched competition and faltered against experienced, more steady foes, and that’s not something that changes when you’re in your mid-30s and prepping for your 20th career fight.
She’s penciled in against Jessica Eye at UFC 253 and it really feels like the outcome of that fight will dictate her future: a win puts her back in the thick of the title chase, but a loss likely knocks her out of it for good.
Cynthia Calvillo: Calvillo is like the junior version of Calderwood — older than you think (33), constantly hanging around contention, and yet to earn that key victory that carries her into contention. Ironically, her biggest win to date is probably her win over Calderwood back when they were both still competing at strawweight.
She scored a good win over Jessica Eye last summer in a tepid main event, setting up a clash with Chookagian (after she withdrew from a fight with Murphy), and she, well, how should I put this? She shit the bed.
Now, I think Chookagian is much better than people give her credit for and expected her to win, but Calvillo had very little to offer and kind of felt like she didn’t belong. She’s subsequently had shoulder surgery to correct a lingering issues, so maybe that was it, but the pressure is on for her to put in some better efforts in the second half of the year if she wants to become a contender in the 125-pound weight class.
Jessica Eye: it has to seem weird that I have Chookagian as a contender and Eye down here “in the mix” even though she’s holds the win in their head-to-head encounter, but it’s what has happened since — and what I see her future being — that prompts the split.
Eye got trucked by Shevchenko two summers back, rebounded with a good win over Viviane Araujo, and then got out-hustled by Calvillo. She’s set to face Calderwood at UFC 257 in what feels like a “Loser Leaves This Section” match, but even if she wins, I’m not sure she’s hustling back into actual contention any time soon.
My presumption is that Eye has hit the Pedro Munhoz, Jeremy Stephens phase of her career, where she’s still a Top 10 talent, but clearly behind the Top 5. Her wins aren’t particularly compelling and she’s not a major star by any metric, so it feels to me like she’d need to string together four or five really good outings in order to get back into contention and I just don’t see that happening.
But I’m really interested to see if she can prove me wrong.
Roxanne Modafferi: “The Happy Warrior” has alternated losses and wins since returning to the UFC, but closed out 2020 on a high note, earning her second career victory over Andrea Lee to cement her place in the Top 10. If Eye is the Munhoz or Stephens of the division, Modafferi is the Neil Magny — a steady, “good everywhere, but not great anywhere,” veteran hand who can be counted on to have the exact type of year she had in 2020, where she lost to Murphy, but out-hustled Lee.
The reason I’m keen to continue tracking Modafferi’s efforts in the year ahead is that she inexplicably keeps getting better. Fighters that have competed for 17 years and amassed 42 fights aren’t supposed to keep developing, but Modafferi has defied those norms, so I’m not putting it past her to keep surprising in 2021.
After all, it was just a year ago that she was positioned as the “sacrificial lamb” against Maycee Barber and went out and battered “The Future.”
EMERGING
Maycee Barber: her timeline for taking over the world got knocked off track last January when she got outworked y Modafferi and suffered a torn ACL in the process. To be clear, Modafferi was getting the better of things before Barber’s ACL blew apart, not the other way around.
Despite the setback, she’s still one of the top up-and-coming talents on the UFC roster — a 22-year-old upstart that has shown good pop in her hands and plenty of toughness, while still having clear areas she needs to continue improving, like keeping her head off the center line and not moving straight back when she’s getting punched in the face, but that will (hopefully) come with more experience.
One of my favourite things to watch for and track is how hyped up prospects respond from their first encounter with adversity and that’s where Barber is heading into 2021, and her return about against Alexa Grasso will go a long way to clarifying how “The Future” is going to rebound from her first loss and if she her big dreams of dominating the division and breaking Jon Jones’ record for becoming the youngest UFC champion in history is something she needs to move on from chasing.
Mayra Bueno Silva: “Sheetara” hasn’t earned much attention thus far because she’s fought just three times since earning a contract in the summer of 2018, but the 29-year-old Brazilian holds stoppage wins over Gillian Robertson and Mara Romero Borella and enters 2021 as a dark horse to track in the 125-pound weight class.
The fact that she lost a unanimous decision to the middling Maryna Moroz in her sophomore outing dampens the optimism just a little, but plenty of people have “How did they lose that fight?” results on their record and still go on to do great things; see Miocic, Stipe.
The majority of her victories have come by way of submission, including each of her two UFC wins, so the point of interest in watching the Brazilian going forward is how she rounds out the rest of her game and adapts when she’s forced to stay on the feet, because the only other option is becoming the female Demian Maia and I don’t think her jiu jitsu is anywhere close to as good as the long-time contenders.
Montana De La Rosa: the former Ultimate Fighter contestant is signed up to face Bueno Silva at the end of February in a bout that will propel one of the emerging talents forward and leave the other one staring down some tough questions about their future.
De La Rosa has a solid amount of experience against quality competition and is still only 25, so the potential for further development and an eventual ascension in the flyweight ranks is far from out of the question.
What I really want to see from De La Rosa is a shift to a bigger, more established gym because I genuinely believe that training with other high level fighters is crucial for up-and-comers, especially those that aren’t obviously preternaturally talented, which, no dis, she’s not. A couple years working with an established crew, getting rounds and rotations in with a bunch of strong training partners and I think she could flourish.
Gillian Robertson: “The Savage” is in a similar position to De La Rosa in that she too is 25, has fought solid competition the whole way through, and has flashed potential. She had little to offer down the stretch of her fight against Taila Santos last month and it raised questions about her development and what kind of future she can have in the 125-pound ranks.
Her jiu jitsu is very good, but like so many fighters, Robertson doesn’t have the wrestling or striking needed to create easy opportunities to put herself in advantageous positions, nor does she have the athleticism or wherewithal to work her way out of bad spots. As such, she’s kind of stuck needing to land on top, and that just won’t cut in if she wants to make a run at the Top 10.
This is a pivotal year for the Din Thomas protege — she’s been in the UFC for three full years, flashed some potential, but is kind of stuck spinning her wheels at the moment. If she can string together a couple quality outings, Robertson could head into next year as a fringe contender, but otherwise, she might find herself constantly fighting for her place on the roster.
Taila Santos: I wasn’t expecting Santos to run through Robertson the way she did last month; she felt like someone that had a pumped up record built against bad competition and was primed to get exposed as such. Instead, she controlled the action for the final two rounds, posting her second UFC win in three starts and heads into 2021 as one of the most intriguing female fighters on the roster.
Part of it is that her loss came against Mara Romero Borella, who has lost four straight since and is 2-5 inside the Octagon. Part of it is that I overrated Robertson. But with my expectations and understandings reset, I’m really curious to see what she can do next time out, when she goes in search of a third straight UFC win.
A step up in competition should come — what’s Andrea Lee up to? — and a win there would put her in the Top 10, which is a pretty quick and slick ascent and the kind of thing you really have no choice but to pay attention to.
PROSPECTS
Mariya Agapova: landing on the wrong side of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history will either force Agapova to look inward, work on all the elements that contributed to her downfall against Shana Dobson, and start fresh with more humility and less swagger in 2021, or it could end up being the fight we all look back on two, three, five years from now as the moment that derailed the cocky upstart from Kazahkstan who has never really found her footing in the UFC.
I was super-high on Agapova heading into that fight and remain bullish on her future prospects — she shown plenty of upside since her Contender Series appearance, and feels like a fighter who needed a loss like that to get things dialled in. Now, it’s not out of the question that she’s a one-round fighter who fades hard if she doesn’t finish in the opening five minutes, but that’s why she’s on this list — we don't know and I’m desperate to find out.
Liana Jojua: there won’t be very many fighters featured in this series that have a losing record in the Octagon, but Jojua was overmatched in her debut, looked very good in her sophomore win, and showed flashes in her third appearance before a pesky cut on her nose brought the fight to a halt.
The 25-year-old Georgian has made marked improvements from fight-to-fight and is one of those raw, younger fighters that I could see taking a major step forward in the next year or two, so I want to watch closely to see if it’s going to happen or not. How she’s booked is going to have a big influence on that, so my hope is that she doesn’t repeatedly get hustled in against superior prospects or proven vets, but only time will tell.
Miranda Maverick: the 23-year-old Maverick is the one who gave Jojua that pesky cut on her nose, which resulted in the former Invicta FC Phoenix Series winner earning a first-round stoppage win in her UFC debut.
There is a lot to like about Maverick going forward — she has a sound ground game, solid striking with good pop, and she’s a plus athlete, moving really well inside the cage. She’s faced quality competition on the way to reaching the UFC roster, and if she’s brought along at a reasonable pace, could certainly become a permanent fixture in the Top 10, if not more.
Heading into 2021, I really want to see how she develops from fight-to-fight because she showed a good ability to adjust on the fly against Jojua and if that translates into make big gains in the gym, it could very well expedite her rise up the ranks. At this point, I think I’m higher on Maverick than I am Maycee Barber, and I real curious to see how she measures up against her more hyped contemporary over the next 12 months.
WILD CARDS
Alexa Grasso: once projected to be a contender and possible star, Grasso has struggled with injuries and an inability to successfully make weight since moving to the UFC, resulting in a a 4-3 record and a ton of lingering questions as she heads into 2021.
On the plus side, she moved up to flyweight and looked good in her debut, outworking Ji Yeon Kim over three rounds in August. She’s also still only 27, which means she’s just now entering her athletic prime, and she’s always had strong fundamentals, so it’s not like she’s needed major technical upgrades this whole way along.
But because she’s been hit-or-miss throughout her UFC run, it’s impossible for me to allow myself to get too hyped up about her prospects at this point because I’ve been let down too many times in the past. Every time she’s looked good, it’s been followed by a flat effort, and I’m eager to see if Grasso can find a rhythm in the coming year.
She’s positioned opposite Barber at UFC 257 and that is absolutely the right fight for her at this moment and one that is high on my list of most anticipated bouts for January because no matter how it shakes out, we’re going to have a better understanding of where each of those athletes stand less than a month into the year.
Andrea Lee: it surprises me every time I open up Lee’s Tapology page and see that she’s lost three straight because she remains an ever-presence figure in the Top 15. Two of those three losses were by split decision, and all three came against ranked opponents, so it’s hard to knock her too much for her struggles, especially given that she’s been through a ton of personal upheaval over the last couple years.
But man does she need a win in a big way to start 2021.
Lee has long shown flashes of potential, but she’s struggled in crucial matchups, and it feels like this is her last chance to string together a couple quality wins and make a run before she’s relegated to being a permanent gatekeeper in the lower third of the flyweight ranks.
Gina Mazany: Mazany was always overmatched and undersized fighting at bantamweight, but looked good in her flyweight debut, registering a third-round stoppage win over Rachael Ostovich at the end of November.
Now that she’s made the move to ‘25 and relocated to Missouri to work with James Krause & Crew at Glory MMA & Fitness, it’s going to be real interesting to see what Mazany can do. She’s tough as nails and solid everywhere, plus her conditioning should improve as she settles into a better training and weight-cutting routine, all of which makes her an intriguing dark horse in the division, at least to me.
I wouldn’t be shocked at all if she has a little Jessica Eye-like run here where she posts three or four quality efforts now that she’s in the right division.
Antonina Shevchenko: the elder Shevchenko sister is 3-2 in the UFC, having alternated wins and losses, beating unranked opponents and losing to more seasoned competitors Roxanne Modafferi and Katlyn Chookagian.
At 36, she’s probably reached her final form as a fighter, but would it really be surprising if she were to settle in somewhere in the 7-12 range in the division and served as a bit of a bouncer for her sister, knocking off the odd hopeful and overhyped prospect between matchups against a couple of veterans?
She looked outstanding against Ariane Lipski last time out, and I’m very curious to see if she can become a hitman of sorts in the 125-pound weight class.
FLYWEIGHT
CHAMPION
Deiveson Figueiredo: when you’re the reigning Fighter of the Year, you’re an automatic Fighter to Watch, but in addition to that, how could you possibly not be over-the-moon excited to see more of the flyweight champ in 2021?
Figueiredo fought four times last year — all of them were exciting, all of them were impactful, all of them made me want to see more of him, and I don’t think it’s going to be any different this year. The fact that his 2021 campaign will begin with a rematch against Brandon Moreno only ups the ante because their first fight was dope and the prospects of each competing on a full camp, with no hospital visits or hinderances, makes it an obvious Fight of the Year candidate.
Here’s the other thing for me: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Figueiredo has an even better year in 2021 and repeats as Fighter of the Year. He likes to stay active, has poured resources into his career, and we talked about a potential move to Las Vegas last year, so further improvements and another string of standout efforts is not at all out of the question, which is really, really exciting.
CONTENDERS
Askar Askarov: if you needed more proof that 2020 was a long year that taxed our memories (amongst other things), this is your reminder that Askarov stiffened Tim Elliott and left him teetering on the brink of collapse a year ago, giving him his first UFC victory and announcing himself as a force in the flyweight division in the process.
The unbeaten Russian followed up that win with a unanimous decision triumph over Alexandre Pantoja to join the short list of qualified contenders in the 125-pound ranks and enters 2021 feeling like the prohibitive favourite to be the guy to face the winner of the Figueiredo-Moreno rematch.
He’s slated to face Joseph Benavidez at UFC 259 in March and a win there would make it damn near impossible to deny him a championship opportunity, especially if Cody Garbrandt remains sidelined or the powers that be opt to pivot away from giving him a title fight after an extended absence. Askarov is 13-0-1 and looks to be the real deal, with the year ahead set to serve as the test of that.
Brandon Moreno: do I really need to explain it?
“The Assassin Baby” went five hard rounds with Figueiredo, absorbed a nasty kick to the pills, and was still all smiles and good vibes after the fight, despite going through hell and not getting the win. He’s 3-0-2 in five fights since returning to the UFC (the first draw was against Askarov) and 6-2-2 overall inside the Octagon, having grown considerably from his two setbacks to become a more patient, less emotional fighter.
On top of that, Moreno just turned 27, so we’re at the start of what should be the best three-to-five year run of his career, all of which adds up to the talented Mexican contender being an undeniable must-watch fighter in 2021.
IN THE MIX
Manel Kape: the former Rizin standout has been out of action since New Year’s Eve 2019 after a pair of UFC appearances fell through in 2020, but all that did was up the anticipation for Kape to make his first foray into the Octagon, which is no scheduled to take place in early February against Alexandre Pantoja.
The 27-year-old Portuguese newcomer carries a ton of hype and three-fight winning streak into his UFC debut, with his most recent appearance being a second-round stoppage win over Kai Asakura. Kape has a little bit of a “Boogeyman” feel to him right now because those that are high on him are super-high on him and projecting him to march right into contention, and in a division that is currently enjoying a bit of a breakout, a guy like that is going to get people talking and draw people in.
And here’s the thing: a victory over Pantoja will put him in contention, so his believers could be absolutely right, which is why that fight is one of the best on the schedule for the opening quarter of the 2021 calendar.
Kai Kara-France: if there is anyone in this group that I feel unsure about them belonging here, it’s Kara-France, but that’s precisely why I will be paying close attention to him this year.
The former Ultimate Fighter contestant has been a Top 10 staple for the last year, but is 0-2 against ranked opponents, losing to both Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. That’s not necessarily the end of the world, but it’s also something to keep tabs on because it could be a strong indicator of where his ceiling lies.
He’s still only 27 and has a wealth of experience, plus he trains with a great group at City Kickboxing, so those might just be hiccups or he could be the division’s Jeremy Stephens (I’ve referenced Jeremy Stephens a lot in this thing!), but if he’s going to make a run, it needs to start now.
Alexandre Pantoja: the Brazilian veteran feels like the new Jussier Formiga — the guy who beats everyone except the absolute best in the division and stays entrenched in the 4-7 range in the rankings for the next 3-5 years. He’s 6-3 in the UFC, with his most recent setbacks coming against the champ and Askarov, and he’s been enlisted to welcome Kape to the Octagon for the first time, which further cements his “top-end litmus test” status.
Every division needs a guy like this, and at the same time, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Pantoja beat Kape and earn himself a title shot in 2021, given that he has a history with Moreno (two wins) and a Top 5 pedigree.
Alex Perez: I know that his loss to Figueiredo at UFC 255 wasn’t the first loss of Perez’ career, but it’s one of those losses where I’m just ultra-curious to see how he responds because it went south in a hurry and that’s the kind of high profile setback that can mess with your head.
Now, I think he’ll be fine because he’s rebounded from a stoppage loss before and is surrounding by excellent coaches and teammates, but still: you bust your ass to get a title shot and then get tapped out in under two minutes? That’s the kind of result that has me paying real close attention to you the next time you step into the cage.
Brandon Royval: one of the top newcomers of 2020, Royval subbed out Tim Elliot and Kai Kara-France before dislocating his shoulder in a first-round loss to Moreno at UFC 255, which led to the creepy highlight of his coach, Marc Montoya, gentling popping it back into place while staring into the camera like a goddamn serial killer.
The 28-year-old Factory X product has an exciting, attacking style and was running neck-and-neck with Moreno before things took a turn down the stretch of that fight, so it will be curious to see whom he gets paired off with and how he performs once he’s cleared to return to action.
Any time you make a run towards title contention in your rookie campaign, I’m going to be dialled in for your sophomore season; it’s as simple as that.
EMERGING
David Dvorak: the 28-year-old from the Czech Republic earned a pair of victories in as many UFC starts last year, outworking Bruno Silva and Jordan Espinosa to push his overall winning streak to 15 and establish himself as one to watch in the flyweight division.
Given how shallow the talent pool is and how quickly the fighters at the top of the heap seem to be hustling into the cage, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dvorak get an expedited push in 2021, and I’m genuinely curious to find out if he could hang with the likes of Pantoja and Royval and everyone else stationed ahead of him in the rankings.
He is the quintessential emerging talent that gets labelled as “unknown” because too many folks simply haven’t bothered to pay attention thus far, but hopefully that all changes in the coming year.
Jimmy Flick: when you hit a goddamn flying triangle choke in your promotional debut, I’m going to make a point of watching you fight every single time you step into the Octagon.
Flick is one of those “young veterans” who has racked up experience on the regional circuit and is finally getting a look in the big leagues, and his non-stop attacking style should make him a fan favourite in 2021. Dude is relentless in his pursuit of submissions and gives of serious Midwest good dude vibes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a Darren Elkins type over the next 12-18 months.
Raulian Paiva: he’s 25, massive for the division, riding a two-fight winning streak and might have beaten Kara-France in his promotional debut a couple years ago… I don’t know about you, but that’s a guy I want to see more from and pay close attention to going forward.
Paiva already has a 20-3 record and looks better and better each time he makes the walk to the Octagon. He has long, crisp boxing, beat a couple solid veterans before arriving in the UFC, and feels like a guy that could morph into a Top 5 talent in the next 12-18 months, depending on matchups, health, and luck.
PROSPECTS
JP Buys: the 24-year-old “Young Savage” joined his wife Cheyanne in making the UFC roster in 2020, collecting a first-round stoppage win on the Contender Series that, while disputed, came after a dominant round that showcased Buys’ upside.
I don’t want to call him a specialist because he’s not one-dimensional by any stretch, but his wrestling is his strong suit and it makes him an intriguing addition to this weight class because there aren’t any really dynamic wrestlers in the mix, so there is an obviously lane for him if he’s able to cobble together some wins.
Additionally, I’m always going to pay close attention to upstarts that fight under the Fortis MMA banner because I have the utmost respect for Sayif Saud and the team down there, so put it all together and Buys is an obvious must-watch candidate for me in 2021.
Jeff Molina: another Missouri native to keep tabs on in the coming year, Molina looked very good in his Contender Series win this summer, outworking Jacob Silva in a non-stop scrap to push his record to 8-2 overall and earn a UFC contract.
He’s faced limited competition on his way to the big leagues, which makes him more of a long-term prospect for me, but given his current run of success, his obvious potential, and the fact that trains with a good team, I’m really interested to see how he does and how much he grows during his first year on the UFC roster.
Sumudaerji: here’s what I wrote earlier in the week when I declared “The Tibetan Eagle” my top prospect in the division:
The 24-year-old has tremendous height and reach for the division, a long, powerful left hand, and has already logged 17 professional fights, amassing a 13-4 record, including back-to-back wins inside the Octagon.
He looked so good against Malcolm Gordon in his flyweight debut that even on that performance alone, he should be someone that people are making a point of tuning in to see the next time he fights. I mean, that’s part of what we’re all here for right, is to find new stars and watch guys develop?
Tagir Ulanbekov: the 29-year-old is 12-1 overall, trains with Khabib Nurmagomedov and that crew, and his lone loss is a majority decision verdict against the guy listed below him here. Again, if someone like that doesn’t pique your interest, then we have very different reasons for following the fight game and how we approach it.
He’s won four straight overall and his record is flecked with finishes, so it will be interesting to see if he can improve on his unanimous decision win over Bruno Silva in his debut next time he steps into the cage. Just like Dvorak, Ulanbekov feels like a guy that could make a quick climb up the rankings to me, and so I will be watching him closely in 2021.
Zalgas Zhumagulov: although he’s older than most prospects (32) and coming off a loss (to Raulian Paiva), I have to include Zhumagulov here because prior to arriving in the UFC, he went back-to-back-to-back against Tyson Nam, Ulanbekov, and former flyweight title challenger Ali Bagautinov.
Of anyone on this list, “Double Z” (my nickname for him, though not official) is on the shortest leash — a second consecutive loss, no matter whom it’s against, would drop him from my watch list, but for now, I have to give him another look because the fight with Paiva was solid and his pre-UFC run was impressive.
WILD CARDS
Joseph Benavidez: there might not be a fighter in the sport that wants to put 2020 behind them more than Benavidez, who twice came up short in his bid to claim the flyweight title. He’s stuck in contender purgatory yet again and has now been stopped in back-to-back fights, with the second being so one-sided that it kind of renders any argument about the clash of heads that opened the door to his first loss to Figueiredo moot at this point.
Now 36 years old, all eyes will be on Benavidez in March when he faces Askarov because it feels like that result could very well dictate his future. If he wins, he’s back to being a top-end gatekeeper in the flyweight division, but if he falters, he could opt to hang’em up and move on to something else.
Benavidez has been a consummate professional for his entire career and is beloved by fans and his contemporaries, which makes where he’s at heading into this year a major point of interest.
Matheus Nicolau: the Brazilian is back in the UFC after being part of the “cut too soon collective” when the promotion thought it was going to do away with the division.
He was 3-1 during his first stint with the UFC, won each of his two fights after being let go, and is still only 27, so he’s the true definition of a wild card heading into this year. Nicolau was on the fringes of contention before getting caught against Dustin Ortiz in 2018 and it’s not at all inconceivable that he puts together a couple victories, lands a place in the Top 10, and makes a run at the title before the year is out.
Even if you weren’t in on Nicolau during his first tour of duty in the UFC, he’s definitely someone to keep close tabs on this time around.
Next Up: Bantamweight & Featherweight