Fighters to Watch 2021, Part II: Bantamweights
Continuing my detailed look at the expansive collection of fighters to keep tabs heading into the new year with the 135-pound weight class.
BANTAMWEIGHT
CHAMPION
AMANDA NUNES: this woman is making history every time she steps into the Octagon, so if you’re not paying attention yet or aren’t excited to see her compete every time out, I’m not sure what to tell you.
Nunes is the best female fighter of all time and deserving of a place in the pantheon of all-time greats regardless of gender as the first “Champ Champ” to actually defend both titles simultaneously. For all the praise we heap upon Conor for being the first, and DC and Cejudo for matching the accomplishment, only “The Lioness” has kept both titles and successfully defended both titles and she doesn’t appear to be slowing down either.
The beauty of Nunes’ current position is that she can shift up to featherweight to defend her belt against Megan Anderson, which gives the UFC time to cobble together some key fights in the 135-pound weight class in order to see if a deserving challenger will emerge. Even if someone does, Nunes has been so dominant, so impressive that she’s still going to be a considerable favourite, and while that may dissuade some from getting excited, it gets me pumped to see what else she can do.
CONTENDERS
GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE: “The Iron Lady” is undefeated in the UFC when she doesn’t fight Amanda Nunes, which is a fact that doesn’t get brought up or discussed enough as far as I’m concerned. This is no different than when Joseph Benavidez was “Unbeaten & Dominick Cruz” coming out of the WEC and “Unbeaten & Cruz / DJ” prior to his ACL surgery in the UFC, and yet de Randamie remains a somewhat disparaged, unappreciated competitor.
And it’s not like she’s beaten a collection of scrubs, either — her last four wins have come over Holly Holm, Raquel Pennington, Aspen Ladd, and Julianna Pena; the first three line up right behind her in the rankings, while Pena is at No. 7.
She’s positioned to be a potential spoiler at the top of the division because a third fight with Nunes is likely a ways off, so it will be interesting to see if someone can unseat the Dutch veteran or if de Randamie will just keep rolling against non-Nunes foes.
HOLLY HOLM: the former bantamweight champ is in a comparable position to de Randamie in that she separated herself from the pack of contenders in 2020, posting unanimous decision wins over Pennington and Irene Aldana.
The crazy thing to think about with Holm is that she’s still very much a work-in-progress and making major strides inside the cage, as exhibited by her significantly improved wrestling and clinch work in recent fights. She won UFC gold in her rookie campaign in the Octagon and is still less than a decade into her mixed martial arts career, which is actually kind of wild to think about if you ask me because it feels like she’s been around forever.
Holm and de Randamie both lost to Nunes in 2019 (and fought each other in 2017), but with each earning key victories last year, it feels natural for them to fight again in 2021. Whether the winner gets another crack at Nunes is still up for discussion, however the prospects of seeing that fight again, ideally without any after-the-horn hijinx, is enough to get me keyed up and keeping tabs on “The Preacher’s Daughter.”
IN THE MIX
IRENE ALDANA: this feel like a pivotal year for the Mexican bantamweight, who parlayed a knockout win over Ketlen Vieira into a clash with Holm, but then had little offer when the two met in October. Aldana is 5-2 after starting her UFC career with consecutive losses, and one of those losses was a split decision, but at the same time, the only effort that really stands out is the win over Vieira.
2021 is about proving that performance wasn’t an aberration; that she didn’t just clipped the Brazilian coming in too aggressively and that she can replicate that effort each time out. I’m not saying she has to start stacking first-round knockouts, but rather that we need to see consistent, dominant efforts or else it’s really going to be time to give up the dream of Aldana emerging as a bona fide contender in the 135-pound weight class.
As I said throughout the first instalment of this series: there is nothing at all wrong with banking multiple years in the 5-10 range in the rankings, winning 2/3 or 3/4 of your fights; it’s just helpful to know sooner rather than later if that’s who a fighter is, and that’s where I’m at with Aldana.
YANA KUNITSKAYA: she’s been on the UFC roster for three years and I’m still not 100-percent sure where she fits, which, in a shallow division, is why Kunitskaya is currently considered “in the mix.”
The 31-year-old won a wholly forgettable fight against Julija Stoliarenko last year and has won three-of-four since her hurried, featherweight debut opposite Cris Cyborg a little less than four years ago, but again, I’m not entirely sure what to do with that because (a) her best win is 29-28 sweep of the scorecards against Marion Reneau, and (b) she got mugged in her most important fight since against Aspen Ladd.
My natural inclination is to view bantamweight as clearly tiered, with Nunes at a level unto herself, de Randamie and Holm paired together, and then a whole pack of people jockeying for position in the next tier, including Kunitskaya. This is the year where she needs to solidify her standing in that third group, at the very least, and with a matchup against Vieira on the books for February, she gets an opportunity to do so nice and early.
ASPEN LADD: after feeling like the precocious upstart for a number of years, Ladd enters 2021 facing some questions as she’s set to turn 26 in March and is coming off a major knee injury.
Now, she’s looked very good and flashed top-end potential throughout her career, flash knockout loss to de Randamie notwithstanding, and has the kind of bullying style that shouldn’t be too compromised by her recent injury, but I can’t be alone in wanting to see her take another clear step forward this year.
Because bantamweight is so shallow and the competition is so even beyond the first two tiers, she’s risen to No. 3 in the rankings without having that signature win that really makes me believe she’s a contender. Personally, I’d love to see her re-booked against one of the women she’s paired off with last year — Julianna Pena and Sara McMann — over another veteran like Raquel Pennington so I can see her beat someone of real substance before I keep proclaiming her to be a future contender.
SARA MCMANN: like Holm, McMann fought for UFC gold in her rookie season on the roster, catching a knee to the midsection from Ronda Rousey at UFC 170 to kick off a seven-year run of inconsistent results.
She’s slated to face Pena at UFC 257 and I can tell you right now that she’ll be that card’s “Fighter I Can’t Quit” because I’m still convinced that the Olympic silver medalist has what it takes to become a contender, even though she turned 40 in September and hasn’t won consecutive fights in a long, long time.
I’ve always held out belief that McMann could parlay her wrestling pedigree into being a dominant grappler in the UFC and while she’s shown glimpses of that, there have also been more than a few instances of bad decision-making and poor Fight IQ. This really feels like a make-or-break year for McMann and I’m eager to see how it all shakes out.
RAQUEL PENNINGTON: on paper, the former Ultimate Fighter contestant looks like she might be the fourth-best fighter in the division, given that all but one of her UFC setbacks have come against the trio of women who clearly stand out above the rest of the pack — Nunes, Holm (twice), and de Randamie; the other loss came against Jessica Andrade, and she’s since avenged it.
After losing to Holm for a second time last January, “Rocky” got back into the win column with a solid showing against Marion Reneau and feels primed to fall into a Jimmie Rivera, Derek Brunson kind of role in the 135-pound ranks.
What I’m curious to see is if she can avoid that fate by turning in a couple really strong outings in 2021 to shake things up a little. The opportunities will be there, but she needs to do more than grind out good victories if she hopes to eventually work her way back into title contention and recapture the impressive form she teased with her breakout win over Miesha Tate at UFC 205.
JULIANNA PENA: it honestly feels a little weird to categorize 2021 as crucial for Pena, but that’s how it feels to me.
She looked solid in her return to action in 2019 against Nicco Montano, but she stumbled in her third-round submission loss to de Randamie in October. It was the second time she’s come up short in as many bouts against elite competition, and while there were positive moments, there were also technical mistakes and missed opportunities, and I really need to see those corrected in order to believe she has legit championship upside in this division.
A strong effort against McMann would solidify her place in the middle of the Top 10 and likely set her up for another marquee assignment later in the year, but it’s that second fight that will be the next most important bout of her career.
KETLEN VIEIRA: the Brazilian was on the brink of title contention — if not the frontrunner for a title shot — following her unanimous decision win over Cat Zingano at UFC 222, but then she had a major knee injury and got knocked out by Aldana in her return, momentarily knocking her out of the title queue.
She got back into the win column last year with a good, but not great decision win over Sijara Eubanks, and has a date with Kunitskaya on the books for late February that will give her a chance to get back into the thick of the chase.
Like most of her contemporaries in this grouping, my interest in Vieira in 2021 is about seeing if she’s capable of being more than a solid fighter in the middle of the Top 10 going forward. She and Ladd probably possess the most upside, but that means they’re under the most pressure as well.
EMERGING
JULIA AVILA: the 32-year-old “Raging Panda” looked primed to make a quick run towards contention after following up her debut win over Pannie Kianzad with a 21-second knockout of Gina Mazany, but Avila run into Sijara Eubanks in September, landed on the wrong side of a unanimous decision verdict and now has to regroup a little as 2021 gets underway.
You have to like her power and aggressiveness, but like so many others in the bantamweight ranks, the year ahead is all about figuring out exactly where Avila fits and getting a better read on where her ceiling lies in this division.
The potential is there and a loss to Eubanks isn’t the end of the world, however Avila will need to bounce back in the first three or four months if she wants to make real headway and get within striking distance of title contention before the year is out.
PANNIE KIANZAD: since losing to Avila, Kianzad has rattled off three straight solid performances, posting victories over Jessica-Rose Clark, Bethe Correia, and Eubanks to move ahead of both in the rankings and validate my “Can’t Quit” feelings about her.
Even though she’s 18 fights into her career and we’ve been knowing about her since at least 2015, Kianzad just turned 29 and it’s that wealth of experience and the improvements she’s made over the last several fights that have me really excited to see what 2021 holds for her.
In a division that feels wide open beyond the top three spots, another win or two could elevate Kianzad into the mix and from there, who knows what happens? She is looking a lot like a late bloomer right about now and I’m curious to see if that is indeed the case over the next 12-18 months.
PROSPECTS
MACY CHIASSON: the Fortis MMA product won Season 28 of The Ultimate Fighter with just two professional bouts under her belt, which tells you what kind of upside she brings to the table.
Chiasson is 3-1 in the Octagon since then, and rebounded from her first loss with a quality effort against Shanna Young, but this is going to be the year that further clarifies where she’s at in her development, where she fits in the division at the moment, and whether or not she can grow into a title contender in the next 24 months.
She’s scheduled to face Marion Reneau on February 6 and that bout should provide some clarity about the questions above, as the high school P.E. teacher is a savvy veteran who will force Chiasson to be at her best in order to post her fourth UFC victory.
TRACY CORTEZ: with each passing effort, I get more and more excited about Cortez’ upside in the division.
The 27-year-old has rattled off eight straight victories overall, including two straight inside the Octagon, and does a very good job of staying in her lane and sticking to what she does best. The Fight Ready representative has beaten a couple quality prospects on the way to the UFC and should face a step up in competition in her first appearance of 2021, which will be a great opportunity to gauge where she’s at in her development and what to expect over the next year.
NORMA DUMONT: heading into her sophomore appearance in the Octagon, I wanted to know more about Dumont, who debuted up a division and got laid out by Megan Anderson. In that second bout, she out-hustled veteran Ashlee Evans-Smith, earning a unanimous decision win and establishing herself as someone to track in the division going forward.
The Brazilian is 30 years old, but just six fights into her career, so it’s difficult to know right now how she projects out going forward. That said, she has a combat sports background and looked strong against “Rebel Girl,” who is a steady measuring stick type.
We’ve seen a ton of “promising” Brazilians given a push in recent years, with most of them fizzling out, so it will be interesting to see what Dumont can do for an encore after registering her first UFC victory in November.
BEA MALECKI: Malecki’s first two professional fights have come inside the Octagon and she’s won them both, following up her debut win over Duda Santana with a unanimous decision triumph over Veronica Macedo last March.
Training out of Fortis MMA, the former Ultimate Fighter contestant is surrounded by an excellent team, has very good height and length for the division, and is one of those “I have no idea where this is going to go” types who could morph into a contender in two years time or just as easily hit the skids and wash out of the UFC.
Those types of fighters intrigue the hell out of me and I can’t wait to see what Malecki has to offer in her third UFC appearance, whenever it comes.
SABINA MAZO: the 23-year-old Mazo is moving up to bantamweight after spending the first 10 fights of her career competing primarily in the 125-pound weight class, and she has the potential to make a rapid climb up the rankings.
She’s won three straight after dropping her promotional debut, and has the kind of varied offensive game that makes her an interesting addition to the 135-pound ranks. Could she become the eventual successor to de Randamie — another Muay Thai stylist with a more well-rounded game than people remember who forges a pretty strong career for herself inside the UFC cage?
At this point, anything is possible with the promising Mazo and her late February assignment against Alexis Davis looks like a great opportunity to get an early read on what to expect from this move up to bantamweight.
KAROL ROSA: a teammate and training partner of flyweight contender and former strawweight champ Jessica Andrade, Rosa has won each of her first two UFC starts and four straight heading into 2021 to land a place on this list.
I know a lot of people will want to dismiss her out of hand because she’s yet to face anyone of real substance and the likelihood that she morphs into a contender isn’t particularly high, but Rosa is 26 years old, 13-3 overall, and scheduled to face Nicco Montano early next month, and a win there could bring a lot more attention her way.
The Parana Vale Tudo rep is precisely the kind of “under the radar” talent I enjoy tracking because two more good wins and she’ll be knocking on the door of the Top 15, leaving plenty of people trying to play catch up to figure out who she is and why they didn’t see her coming.
WILD CARDS
JESSICA-ROSE CLARK: sidelined for the first half of the year after suffering a major knee injury last year, the 33-year-old Aussie looked the best she has throughout her UFC career last time out, collecting a third-round stoppage win over Sarah Alpar.
The veteran, who won her first two UFC assignments and is 3-2 overall in the Octagon, has finally found a home at CSA and has put a lot of time and effort into her training and physical conditioning over the last couple years, and the results were apparent in her win back in September.
Given how good she looked last time out, I’m not putting it out of the realm of possibility that she comes back and rattles off another quality win or two to become a dark horse in the division heading into next year.
BANTAMWEIGHT
CHAMPION
PETR YAN: “The Siberian Gangster” went from zero UFC appearances to the top of the bantamweight heap in 750 days, posting seven victories in just over two years and looking dominant at every turn.
Now, he’s setting his sights on even bigger goals, like cleaning out the highly competitive division and chasing down Demetrious Johnson’s record for the most consecutive successful title defences in UFC history, which sits at 11.
Champions are obvious must-follows, but with a slate of highly skilled contenders waiting to challenge for the title and how impressive he’s looked thus far, Yan just might be at the absolute top of the list of Fighters to Watch in the year ahead.
CONTENDERS
FRANKIE EDGAR: we should all be following Edgar like he was our guru and we his devoted acolytes because whatever this dude is doing, it’s working and he heads into 2021 as a contender in the bantamweight division.
Regardless of how you scored his fight with Pedro Munhoz, I need you to be honest: you didn’t think “The Answer” was going to look as good as he did at age 39, moving down a division after getting blasted by “The Korean Zombie” to end 2019 and having lost three of his previous four fights, did you?
I didn’t and now I feel like an idiot for doubting Edgar, who could realistically fight for a gold in a third weight class with a victory over Cory Sandhagen in early February.
CODY GARBRANDT: I originally had Garbrandt listed as a wild card because he’s battling lingering injuries and illness, and was most recently expected to go down to flyweight to face Deiveson Figueiredo, but I switched things up because the Figs-Moreno rematch puts an immediate title shot on ice and he’s clearly going to get a marquee assignment whenever he comes back.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from “No Love” this year because while he looked quick and powerful in his win over Raphael Assuncao in June, he’d also been knocked out in his previous three fights. Even if you want to throw out his losses to TJ Dillashaw, there is still the bout with Pedro Munhoz, where he made the same mistakes and miscalculations he did in his twin title fights with his former teammate.
There is no denying his talent, but I have some real questions I want to have answered.
CORY SANDHAGEN: the Elevation Fight Team member closed out his third year on the UFC roster by rebounding from his quick submission loss to Aljamain Sterling by finishing Marlon Moraes, dropping the Brazilian veteran with a spinning wheel kick before driving home the coffin nails.
He feels like the next evolution of Dominick Cruz to me — a guy that can do everything, moves well, and is tactically and technically sharp — and I’m very curious to see if that holds up over the next 12 months, beginning with his bout against Edgar.
A win there puts him in the running to face the winner of the pending title fight between Yan and Sterling, so it behooves anyone that considers themselves a fight fan to pay close attention to the 28-year-old “Sandman” from here on out.
ALJAMAIN STERLING: it’s been a steady climb to contention for Sterling, but he’s finally in line to challenge for the title after choking out Sandhagen last summer to extend his winning streak to five.
There haven't been any massive leaps forward for “Aljo” over the years — he’s just routinely tightened things up, learning from losses, fine-tuning his approach, and fighting with both greater urgency and more patience, if that makes sense, en route to reaching the point most forecasted he would reach when he arrived on the scene in 2014.
He’s got a massive test in front of him in whenever he and Yan get booked, but given the way he’s risen to the occasion in each of his last five outings, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the best version of “The Funkmaster” that evening, win or lose.
IN THE MIX
JOSE ALDO: the former featherweight kingpin showed he’s still got something left in the tank at the end of last year by switching up his style and riding out the final five minutes to secure a much-needed win over Marlon “Chito” Vera to snap a three-fight losing streak.
For me, Aldo is the definition of “in the mix” — an established name who is always going to be booked in high profile pairings, but someone who isn’t quite in contention at the moment. I think the post-Vera declarations that he’s still a contender were a little much, but he’s also clearly not ready to be put out to pasture.
What I’m really interested in seeing this year is if his willingness to go to his grappling and change things up against Vera was a one-time deal or not because if we get a more tactical, “take what you’re giving me” Aldo in 2021, he has the pedigree and savvy to be a potential agent of chaos in an already chaotic and competitive division.
ROB FONT: it took until the final event of 2020 for Font to get back into the Octagon after dealing with a major knee injury, but the New England Cartel member made the most of it by wiping out Marlon Moraes to earn the biggest win of his career.
Now it’s all about seeing what he can do for an encore.
I don’t want to pull the old “Did Font win or did Moraes lose” crap that talking heads do all the time with team sports… however you know there are going to be a gang of people that are quick to point out the Brazilian’s decline and fail to give the former Pizza Hut delivery man his due. I’m not going to be one of those people — Font looked dope and can bust up anyone with his crisp hands — but I am very, very interested to see what comes next.
PEDRO MUNHOZ: the 34-year-old Brazilian might be the gold standard for fighters who are fixtures in the Top 10 of their division, but still never earned a title shot.
Munhoz enters 2021 on a two-fight slide, though an argument can certainly be made that he deserved the nod in his main event assignment against Frankie Edgar last year, and stationed at No. 8 in the rankings. He’s 8-5 (1 NC) in the division with wins over Font, Brett Johns, and Garbrandt, and decision losses to Assuncao, Jimmie Rivera, John Dodson, Sterling, and Edgar, with three of those five being split decision verdicts.
It feels like things could go either way for Munhoz at this point — either he takes a step back and falls out of the Top 10 or his picks up a couple wins and pushes closer to the Top 5 — and you’ll find me planted on my couch, eagerly watching to see which one it is all year long.
JIMMIE RIVERA: another divisional stalwart with the potential to muddy things up in 2021, Rivera got back into the win column with a featherweight victory over Cody Stamann this summer, snapping a two-fight skid and giving himself a little breathing room after a 1-3 run following his incredible 20-fight winning streak.
He’s only 31 and is one of the more technically sound, fundamentally clean fighters in the division, which makes him a constant threat to knock off an upstart or topple a favoured fellow contender trying to hustle into title contention. He’s going to need a few good wins to get back into contention, especially having already lost to Yan and Sterling, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rivera settle into a being the Jeremy Stephens of the bantamweight division this year.
He’s set to run it back with Munhoz later this month, with the winner climbing closer to the Top 5 and the loser occupying that veteran gatekeeper role.
CODY STAMANN: I think you’ve got to give Stamann a little bit of a pass for his loss to Rivera this past summer because it seemed like he was literally trying to fight through the agony of suddenly losing his little brother a month earlier and he wasn’t quite as crisp as you would normally expect him to be.
While it’s surprising that Rivera is only 31, it’s equally surprising that Stamann is already 31, which might limit his upside a little, but I’m genuinely curious to see what he can do with a full camp and having gone through the grieving process in 2021. He profiles as an Al Iaquinta type to me and I want to see if that’s right.
EMERGING
RAONI BARCELOS: it is absolutely bonkers to me that more people haven’t been checking for Barcelos before now because it’s not like he’s someone that just appeared out of nowhere; the guy was the RFA featherweight champ and fought good competition to reach that point before graduating to the UFC.
Since entering the Octagon, all the 33-year-old Brazilian has done is go 5-0, pushing his winning streak to nine and setting up a bout with his countryman Assuncao late next month.
A sixth straight victory over someone as established and respected as Assuncao would elevate Barcelos from “emerging” to “in the mix,” and one more win would make him a contender, so I recommend all of you that haven’t been paying attention remedy that right now.
MERAB DVALISHVILI: after losing the first two fights of his UFC career, “The Machine” has now collected five straight victories to force his way into the Top 15 and stand as a dark horse in the bantamweight division.
The relentless grappler from the Serra Longo Fight Team has piled up takedowns in bunches during that span, using his superior wrestling and unmatched conditioning to drown the opposition. Where some wrestlers want to put you on the canvas and keep you there, Dvalishvili almost prefers to let you get back up, just so he can scoop you into the air, dump you back on the mat, and break your spirits a little more.
It’s going to be interesting to see how he gets booked in 2021 because (a) he deserves a step up in competition, and (b) he’s teammates with Sterling, so there is a little “bodyguard” potential for the charismatic Georgian.
CASEY KENNEY: the former Contender Series competitor quietly logged four appearances in 2020, bouncing back from an early loss to Dvalishvili to enter this year on a three-fight winning streak, with a date opposite Dominick Cruz on the books for UFC 259.
Kenney is a different type of grappler than Dvalishvili, coming from a judo base and looking to chase submissions a little more readily, but he too does a good job of frustrating and tiring out opponents with his unrelenting pace, capitalizing on mistakes, flashing improving striking, and just making his foes work for every single inch inside the Octagon.
This fight with Cruz is a massive step up and tremendous opportunity for the unheralded Arizona-based bantamweight, who could move to the fringes of title contention if he’s able to topple the two-time champ.
GUSTAVO LOPEZ: the 31-year-old made his debut on short notice, losing to Dvalishvili at a catchweight of 140 pounds in a fight that honestly feels like one you just kind of toss aside. He gave a much more accurate accounting of himself in his sophomore showing, trucking former training partner Anthony Birchak in a little over two-and-a-half minutes.
Training out of Xtreme Couture, Lopez is a well-round, all-action fighter whose losses have come against solid competition and who could morph into a fun addition to the 135-pound ranks. He’s set to make his 2021 debut against prospect Adrian Yanez in March and how that one plays out should help clarify what comes next for Lopez and what kind of role he might settle into in the division.
SEAN O’MALLEY: there aren’t many fighters on the roster whose next appearance is as important as O’Malley’s next appearance is, as “Sugar” stumbled last time out, getting chopped down while rolling his ankle multiple times in a loss to Chito Vera that he still hasn’t really accepted.
The 26-year-old is one of those odd cases of a fighter whose hype is both justified and over-the-top, because while he’s clearly talented and carries tremendous potential, he’s also not the transcendent “Luka Doncic of MMA” he was cast as heading into his loss to Vera.
It’s going to be real interesting to see who the UFC matches O’Malley up with next, and how he responds to faltering in the spotlight for the first time.
RICKY SIMON: the 28-year-old from the Pacific Northwest bounced back after back-to-back setbacks in 2019 with a good win over Ray Borg in May. Now 4-2 in the UFC, Simon has steadied himself and found his footing in the division, which put him in a position to potentially make a move up the rankings in 2021.
He’s been getting in work with Team Oyama of late and was scheduled to face Brian Kelleher later this month, only to have the fight scrapped for a second time. He’s already had some very good performances inside the Octagon and is the type of fighter I can easily see stringing together three, four, five wins over the next two years to hustle his way into the Top 10.
I’m always going to bet on competitors who fought a tough slate on the regional circuit and have already shown me something inside the Octagon and Simon is one of those guys.
SONG YADONG: after beginning his UFC run with four consecutive impressive outings, Song has stumbled a little in each of his last two outings.
While his resume officially shows a win over Chito Vera and a majority draw with Stamann, the former was a true coin-flip decision and the latter was scored for Stamann by 10 of the 14 at-home judges according to MMA Decisions. Now, there is nothing wrong with a 23-year-old upstart having a little rough patch as he works his way up the ranks, however, it does put Song under the microscope a little heading into this year.
I think Song has a ton of potential and I’m really curious to see if he can level up in 2021.
PROSPECTS
MARIO BAUTISTA: I love low-key dudes that very few people are checking for and Bautista is absolutely one of those guys.
After getting dropped in against Sandhagen on short notice in his debut, the MMA Lab product has picked up back-to-back wins, mostly recently winning a “Battle of the Prospects” against Miles Johns in convincing fashion.
He turned 27 last summer, so he’s just hitting his athletic prime, and is 8-1 overall. Combined with the fact that he works with an excellent team and has flashed solid potential over his last two outings and you’ve got the makings of a quintessential “Guy I’m FollowingThat No One Else is Paying Attention To This Year.”
RANDY COSTA: “The Zohan” earned his second straight first-round stoppage win in September, blasting Journey Newsom with a head kick just 41 seconds into the fight. Now 6-1 overall and a little more comfortable in the Octagon than he was in his debut against Brandon Davis, the 26-year-old New England native is certainly one to keep tabs on in the 135-pound weight class.
Costa rose to the UFC ranks pretty quickly and without facing anyone of real substance on the regional circuit, so these first couple years should be about gaining experience, honing his craft, and establishing a baseline for expectations going forward. Of course, if he goes out and blasts his way through Trevin Jones in less than five minutes for his third straight stoppage victory at UFC 259, expect Costa to get hustled up the divisional ladder once again.
MONTEL JACKSON: I’m still a big believer in Jackson, who earned a victory on the Contender Series one year after his professional debut and was competing inside the Octagon two months later.
The 28-year-old earned a first-round submission win over Brian Kelleher two years back, which tells you what kind of potential he has, and his two losses have come against Simon and Brett Johns, a tremendously talented bantamweight who departed the promotion last year.
With a little more seasoning, I still feel like Jackson could develop into a Top 15 fixture, and I’m eager to see if he can live up to those projections.
MILES JOHNS: one loss isn’t enough to cause me to abandon ship on a prospect, especially when that loss came against another prospect, and not when you’ve already rebounded with a solid bounce-back performance.
As mentioned, Johns got stopped by Bautista in February, but got back into the win column in October, collecting a third-round finish of his own to push his record to 10-1. The Fortis MMA product had nothing but success on the regional circuit, and looked sharp in his Contender Series win before eking out a decision victory in his promotional debut.
Now that he’s got the first three out of the way, it’s time to see if Johns can find a rhythm and start making some headway in the talent-rich 135-pound weight class.
NATE MANESS: after suffering the first loss of his career in his final appearance of 2019, Maness bounced back in a major way last year, earning a regional circuit win in February before posting consecutive victories inside the Octagon to go 3-0 in 2020 and push his record to 13-1 overall.
The 29-year-old showcased his toughness and resiliency in late November, weathering an early and consistent attack against Luke Sanders before connecting with a clean counter in the second that put the former RFA champ on the deck, allowing Maness to sink in the fight-ending rear-naked choke.
He’s one of the more seasoned members of this grouping, so it wouldn’t be surprising to me at all if he were to race out ahead of the rest of the pack and work his way into the middle class and possibly higher over the next 12 months while some of these other guys log valuable experience and make slower progress.
UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV: the cousin of reigning (?) lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov, the unbeaten 25-year-old had three different bouts fall through in 2020, delaying his promotional debut.
Like many members of this camp, Nurmagomedov has been heavily hyped ahead of his first foray into the Octagon and on paper, it looks justified, as he’s won a dozen straight. That said, a lot of people felt the same way about Abubakar Nurmagomedov and he didn’t make it out of the first round of his debut, so I’m taking the cautiously optimistic and infinitely curious approach with this one.
Currently slated to take on Sergey Morozov at UFC 257, it will be very interesting to see how he does in his first UFC outing and if the undoubted tensions between his camp and the headlining Irishman result in any pre-fight distractions.
SAID NURMAGOMEDOV: Said rebounded from his second professional setback and first loss in the UFC with a blistering effort in his lone appearance of 2020, sitting down Mark Striegl with a left hook before pounding him out on the canvas.
Still only 28 years old, Nurmagomedov has garnered lofty praise and projections from his coaches and teammates over the years and has flashed that potential thus far in his UFC journey, but what I’m really paying attention to this year is whether he can develop some consistency in terms of being available.
He’s only fought four times in the last three years and while COVID certainly factored into that last year, it will be difficult for Nurmagomedov (or anyone) to build momentum and climb the divisional ladder if he’s only fighting every eight or nine months.
KYLER PHILLIPS: one of the top prospects to emerge out of The MMA Lab over the last handful of years, Phillips has quietly posted back-to-back UFC victories to push his record to 8-1 overall and start making some waves in the bantamweight ranks.
A well-rounded fighter who has methodically worked his way to this point by facing a steady diet of solid opposition, the 25-year-old Phillips feels like one of the top potential breakout candidates in the division. His lone career setback came against Josh Barnett protege and former Pancrase champ Victor Henry and he kind of got hosed by not getting a contract coming out of The Ultimate Fighter after losing a majority decision against eventual winner Brad Katona.
But he’s here now and already making the most of it, and as good as he’s looked thus far, I fully anticipate him to take things up a notch or two over the next 12 months.
DRAKO RODRIGUEZ: sporting a 7-1 record, Rodriguez hits the UFC with a lot of expectations after being at the center of a contract dispute on the regional circuit and scoring a contract this past summer with a first-round submission win on the Contender Series.
The former King of the Cage standout’s only loss came against current UFC bantamweight Tony Gravely and he was poised to take on Aiemann Zahabi in his debut last month, but the French-Canadian was forced to the sidelines with a positive COVID test and the bout has yet to be rescheduled.
Rodriguez has a bunch of quick finishes on his resume and I’m always a little hesitant to get too hyped about a young fighter who may have simply be wrecking bums, so needless to say I’ll be paying close attention to his eventual debut in order to recalibrate my expectations for “The Great Drakolini” one way or the other.
JACK SHORE: unbeaten in 13 professional fights, Shore is the best prospect in the division and maybe the best prospect in the entire UFC in my opinion. He rose through the ranks under the Cage Warriors banner, and has earned finishes in all but one of his wins, plus he went 12-0 as an amateur too.
“Tank” feels like a more dynamic, more fluid version of Brett Johns, who is someone I hold in high regard and can’t believe the UFC let walk. Similar to his countryman and training partner, he’s a strong grappler with a good submission game, but what sets Shore apart is that he’s a superior athlete with a little more sandpaper to him.
He was slated to face Khalid Taha in November, but the bout was scuttled and he hasn’t been re-booked as of yet. Once he does, however, I suggest you pay close attention because the 25-year-old from Wales will be in the thick of the title chase before too long.
ADRIAN YANEZ: the former LFA standout followed up his blistering first-round knockout win on the Contender Series with a blistering first-round knockout win in his promotional debut two months later, pushing his winning streak to five and establishing himself as one to watch in the process.
Yanez’ only loss have come against quality competition and I love fighters that work their way to the UFC through top-shelf promotions, so it’s easy to understand why so many people are so high on the 27-year-old heading into this year.
He’s matched up against Gustavo Lopez towards the end of March and that will be a really instructive fight for both men, in my opinion. If he can continue racking up ridiculous finishes, Yanez will get a jetpack strapped onto his back, and even if he simply keeps adding check marks in the win column, he should be one of the more high-profile prospects in the lighter weight classes this year.
WILD CARDS
RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO: timing and politics kept Assuncao from ever challenging for bantamweight gold and now he heads into the 2021 campaign on a three-fight slide.
Now, those losses are to Garbrandt and Sandhagen and Marlon Moraes, whom he previously beat, so it’s not like he’s getting beaten by middle tier talent, but the pressure is on the 38-year-old to right the ship and show that he’s still deserving of a place in the Top 10 when he squares off with Barcelos next month.
As someone who has long advocated for Assuncao to get more respect, I will be paying close attention to his next fight and figuring out what comes next from there.
DOMINICK CRUZ: the fact that he’s following up a championship opportunity with a bout against Casey Kenney tells you all you need to know about where Cruz is at in his career and why he’s listed as a wild card, and I say that with no disrespect intended towards Kenney.
The former two-time bantamweight titleholder hasn’t won a fight since UFC 199.
UFC 199.
Pedigree says he should be considered a contender, but when your last victory came in June 2016, before Amanda Nunes ascended to the bantamweight throne, I can’t do it. I’m super-keen to see how he looks fighting for the second time in less than 12 months for the first time in forever, but for now, Cruz is strictly a wild card.
TJ DILLASHAW: I wrote an Ultimate Fighter journal / diary with Dillashaw for Heavy MMA way back in the day, so I’ve been in from the outset, but now, just like everyone else, I’m 100-percent in “prove yourself” mode with the returning former champion.
It doesn’t matter whether I believe his cheating was limited to his last appearance or not — I need to see him go out and have the kind of success he enjoyed before the scandal while returning negative test results multiple times before I’m going to be comfortable getting back to advocating for Dillashaw to be considered a contender.
The skills are there, no doubt, but the cloud of skepticism hangs over his head and it’s on him to sort it all out.
CHITO VERA: I really wanted to put Vera “in the mix,” but I just couldn’t overlook his poor decision-making at the start of the third round of his fight with Aldo and inability to extricate himself from a bad situation.
All the momentum was on his side and then he went rushing in haphazardly, got taken down, and spent the majority of the round doing very little on the canvas. What could have been a major victory that carried him to the brink of contention turned into a disappointing loss and now I’m left wanting to see how he responds, how he adjusts before allowing myself to get too hyped about Vera again.
Next Up: Featherweight