Fighters to Watch 2022: Middleweights
Israel Adesanya still reigns, Robert Whittaker is getting his rematch, but who else could make some waves in the next 12 months?
We’re almost there; the end is in sight.
I don’t say that because I’m eager to be done with this series in an “I’m so over this” way or anything, just that I’ve really enjoyed putting these names out there and have been so much more organized and diligent about getting it done before the first UFC fight week of the year arrives that I’m genuinely excited to get into the swing of something different this weekend and beyond.
So here we are at middleweight, which, if you’ve listened to any of the podcasts I’ve done with my pal Sean Sheehan from SevereMMA (and you should have!), you’ll know both he and I feel like the 185-pound weight class is shallow, short on viable contenders, and, unfortunately, doesn’t have the kind of emerging class climbing the ranks that you see in the women’s flyweight division or men’s bantamweight divisions, for instance.
And with the championship rematch between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker announced for February, there will be opportunities available in the first half of the year for contenders to emerge, but at this point, with how things have shaken out in the division over the last couple years, it’s hard to see anyone other than the two men that will do battle at UFC 271 ruling the division.
Honestly, I think the best-case scenario for the division is a Whittaker victory and a trilogy fight in the second half of the year — July if everyone is healthy, September if there are bumps and bruises, December if it’s something serious — so that there is plenty of time to sort the rest out and be ready to move forward anew in 2023, but maybe that’s just me.
Here are the middleweights I’m watching closely this year.
Check out previous instalments in the Fighters to Watch 2022 series here (number of athletes discussed in parenthesis):
Strawweights (29)
Flyweights (41)
Bantamweights (43)
Featherweights (31)
Lightweights (33)
Welterweights (24)
MIDDLEWEIGHT
ISRAEL ADESANYA
I loved Adesanya taking his shot and going up to challenge Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title early last year — he didn’t have a contender at the ready, it was a chance to make history, and he came up short; no harm, no foul.
I also loved that he came back, said, “Bring me whoever is next!” and then again looked quizzically at Marvin Vettori when he stood there thinking he won their rematch the same way he though the won their first encounter. To be clear: he didn’t win either, and that’s not up for debate.
What I’m really interested to see is how the 32-year-old middleweight titleholder used these last six months to add to his arsenal and improve himself ahead of this rematch with Whittaker. As much as Adesanya is full of swagger and moxie — he’s a big Dude Qualities guy for sure — he’s also a technician and a diligent student, so I would assume there will be elements of his game that look much improved, more refined, or more complex when he returns in February than they did in June.
I’m also curious to see what he says about this fight, given how the first one was relatively light work, but Whittaker is clearly in a better place now than he was then. My assumption is that he’s taking this one as seriously as a heart attack, but could there be a little hubris after how thoroughly he dismantled “The Reaper” the first time around.
As always, Adesanya remains one of the most entertaining, must-see competitors on the roster, and worth the price of admission every time he competes.
ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN: when you have the ability to post a “one strike, one knockdown, one finish” performance in the Octagon, you have to be included on this list, even after getting out-hustled by someone that didn’t make the cut earlier in the year. Alhassan has terrorizing power, and after struggling to make weight in his final two welterweight appearances, I’m eager to see what he looks like at ‘85 and if an aggressive approach and his ferocious power can produce consistent success for him in 2022. Even if it doesn’t, he’s one of those electric talents you just can’t take your eyes off… until his gas tank starts running low, then you’re free to go.
BRENDAN ALLEN: despite getting stopped in his last appearance of the year — and twice in his last four fights — Allen is too young, and too skilled for me to dismiss quite yet. Now, maybe his performance against Punahele Soriano will stand as a high-water mark for his UFC run, but he looked too good in that fight to cast him aside despite some clear flaws. He needs to be more defensively responsible, and should use his striking as a way to get to his grappling, which is where he’s strongest IMO, and he needs to be more patient when he gets there too. Can he? I don’t know, but he wouldn’t be the first fighter to struggle against the best opponents he’s faced, make some changes, show some improvements, and really put it all together in their late 20s.
BRYAN BATTLE: I got real Kelvin Gastelum on TUF 17 vibes from Battle, and not just because he was the penultimate fighter assigned to a team either. Right now, he’s almost all Dude Qualities, which isn’t to say that he doesn’t have skills, but just that they're far from refined and he’s still figuring out who he is as a fighter. But he’s 6-1 as a pro, has sound finishing instincts, showed some resolve in his TUF Finale win over Gilbert Urbina, and is one of the few younger fighters in the division that sill has a ton of room to grow and develop.
DEREK BRUNSON: the 38-year-old veteran added to more victories to his resume in 2021, extending his winning streak to five and putting him within spitting distance of a championship opportunity… except we’ve already seen him face both Adesanya and Whittaker, and neither were particularly competitive. Now, that’s not to say that “Blonde Brunson” hasn’t made changes, improved, and could provide them with a more competitive fight should they meet again, but just that it’s a little more difficult to get excited for those bouts, as it is for most top-end pairings at ‘85, where everyone has pretty much fought everyone else, with Adesanya and Whittaker proving themselves to be head-and-shoulders ahead of everyone else.
JARED CANNONIER: Cannonier, who turns 38 in March, is another one of those very good, but not good enough to get by Whittaker competitors that make up the top-end of the middleweight ranks. He’s won four of five since moving to ‘85, but faltered against “Bobby Knuckles,” which shouldn’t preclude him from getting further opportunities, it just makes it that little bit harder to get all the way excited about him. He’s set to face Brunson in what should be a bout to determine the next No. 1 contender (provided we don’t need a trilogy fight), and he has the power and speed needed to halt Brunson’s ascent, so it should be a compelling clash with legit stakes that everyone checks out.
PAULO COSTA: here’s another “too talented for me to dismiss” fighter, but I’m getting close. Between the stupid excuses for his poor performance against Adesanya to his “yeah, I’m not making ‘85” position ahead of his October loss to Vettori, “Borrachina” is currently, in my opinion, the biggest diva in the UFC. The problem is that he’s a talented fighter too, with menacing power and a marauding style that makes him a serious threat when he actually wants to compete. He would actually make a really compelling addition to the light heavyweight ranks, but even before his fight with Vettori, he was adamant that he was going to remain at middleweight, so that’s likely to be the next battle he faces.
CHRIS CURTIS: “The Action Man” was one of the best stories of 2021, finally making his UFC debut in November and posting a pair of stoppage wins over ascending talents to close out the year. As Sean and I discussed in our last “State of the UFC Address” (join the Patreon, you cowards!), Curtis is simply a very good professional fighter, and that general soundness is enough to carry him into the Top 15 and beyond in a shallow division. The 34-year-old also knows who he is as a fighter, where he’s at in his career, and those two things contribute to what makes him dangerous, exciting to watch, and a live wire at ‘85 this year.
KYLE DAUKAUS: this is a critical year for Daukaus in terms of his development and figuring out where he fits in the division long term, as 2021 was almost a complete wash. He had multiple fights cancelled, lost a bout to Phil Hawes, and then had that whole headbutt, No Contest deal with Kevin Holland, who then pulled out of a rematch and is seemingly moving to welterweight. The younger Daukaus is a very good grappler and fundamentally sound, so there is room for growth and definite upside there, however he needs to start putting it together and taking positive steps forward in order to escape being cast as a mid-pack guy.
DRICUS DU PLESSIS: the soon-to-be 28-year-old South African picked up his second finish in as many UFC starts last year, dropping Trevin Giles with a cold right hand off the fence less than two minutes into the second round of their UFC 264 engagement. He was forced to withdraw from what could have been a real interesting scrap with Andre Muniz in December, but remains one of the bigger upside question marks in the division for me. Du Plessis has obvious power, a very good record with a couple big wins (beating Roberto Soldic is huge, even if he lost the rematch), and he’s looked sharp through his first two UFC outings, so it will be interesting to see whom he’s matched up with next and where he’s able to take things in 2022.
ALBERT DURAEV: in trying to keep the number of athletes discussed in this series to under 350, I cut out a lot of the established class, DWCS graduates that have yet to make their debuts (except for Jake Hadley), and most of the people like Duraev — competitors in their 30s that I’m pretty sure I know where they top out that have limited UFC experience. I’m including “Machete” even though he only looked average in his debut win over Roman Kopylov because he has the skills, talent, and opportunity in a shallow division to string together two or three more wins and be facing a ranked opponent, and from there, you never know what could happen. I don’t necessarily think he even reaches that point, but he’s made the cut just in case.
TRESEAN GORE: the 27-year-old earned a place in the TUF 29 middleweight finals, but was scratched after suffering a knee injury. He’ll square off with Bryan Battle next month in their postponed meeting, and is a genuinely interesting prospect to me because of both is power and raw potential. Gore is unproven and untested, but has a sound foundation and could develop into a very good fighter with the right coaching the right opportunities, and the right matchups. Battle is a good test and that fight should provide some clarity about where he stands at the moment.
JACK HERMANSSON: “The Joker” stumbled at the end of 2020, dropping a decision to Marvin Vettori, but rebounded nicely in his lone appearance of 2021, weathering the early storm before rallying to maul Edmen Shahbazyan. He’s lined up to face Sean Strickland at the start of next month in what is a pivotal contest for each, and is another member of the pack of fighters just outside of contention that could earn themselves a championship opportunity with another good win or two in 2022.
ANTHONY HERNANDEZ: I honestly have no idea where Hernandez fits in the 185-pound hierarchy because every time I back him, he falters, and every time I think he’s going to continue sliding, he scores a victory. Last year, he choked out Rodolfo Vieira in a come-from-behind, “damn that was impressive” effort that is hard not to over-rate because of Vieira’s BJJ pedigree, but I feel like his next performance is the one that is going to be most telling. If he can secure a victory and turn his upset finish into the start of a streak, I might have to start buying in again, but for now, I’m taking a hands-off, wait-and-see approach because I’m not sure “Fluffy” will ever be consistent enough to make a real push towards the rankings.
NASSOURDINE IMAVOV: there is as small chance that folks still aren’t all the way in on Imavov, opting instead to downplay his dominant finishes over Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan based on those competitors’ respective struggles, but me? I’m all-in on “The Russian Sniper.” While I won’t go as far as to say he’s going to win gold or challenge for the title (though he could), I do think the Fernand Lopez-coached emerging talent can be a long-term, impact figure in the division. Even at age 25, he knows who he is as a fighter, fights within himself, and is completely unflustered in the cage, and when you combine those things with his natural gifts and polished skills, you have a very intriguing up-and-comer to watch.
JULIAN MARQUEZ: the 31-year-old returned after more than two years on the sidelines to collect back-to-back submission wins over Maki Pitolo and Sam Alvey. He was pulled from a fight in October against Jordan Wright for “non-COVID health issues” and is slated to step in with Daukaus in mid-February, which will be a critical engagement for “The Cuban Missile Crisis.” Marquez could be another Chris Curtis-type — a solid professional fighter with good all-around skills and excellent coaching — and a couple more good wins would land him in the Top 15, at which point, all bets are off. This division being so wide open means there are opportunities for a lot of fighters in 2022.
NICK MAXIMOV: the Nick Diaz disciple is an interesting prospect. He’s not quite the 13th-best prospect under 25 in my opinion, given that he struggled down the stretch of his fight with Cody Brundage at UFC 266, but an interesting prospect nonetheless. Like his mentors Nick and Nathan, his grappling is sharp, but he’s more of a grinder than a finisher, and his striking is still a serious work-in-progress, so if he’s going to develop into a real name within the division — and not just a guy propped up by his Diaz Brother allegiances — it’s going to be a couple years. I don’t think he ever quite gets there, but we’ll see.
ANDRE MUNIZ: it is beyond wild to me that Muniz won Submission of the Year at a number of outlets just a couple short weeks after being the guy everyone forgot about and wasn’t talking about heading into UFC 269, but hey — what do I know? I’m just a guy with a newsletter whose work doesn’t seem to get enough traffic or in front of the right people for anyone to want to give me a shot at writing about this sport on a bigger platform. The 31-year-old gives me major Demian Maia vibes without the concern that he’s going to go through that phase where Maia wanted to become a boxer, and that makes he really dangerous in a division where he only needs a couple more wins to land amongst the top contenders.
ALEX PEREIRA: the former Glory Kickboxing two-weight champ made his successful UFC debut in November, stopping Andreas Michailidis at UFC 268 in NYC, putting him on the right track to progress up the rankings in the middleweight division. He’s taking a major step up in for his second assignment, signing to face fellow Brazilian Bruno Silva, but it’s the kind of fight the 32-year-old needs in order to expedite a push towards potentially facing Adesanya, whom he beat twice in their kickboxing days. Beating Silva is no easy task, but would be a major feather in his cap and put him in line for another considerable step up in competition in the second half of the year.
GREGORY RODRIGUES: “Robocop” has been on a roll since losing to Jordan Williams on Season 4 of DWCS, rattling off four straight victories, including a pair of wins inside the Octagon. The 29-year-old scored a second-round stoppage win over Jun Yong Park in October in a fun back-and-forth scrap, and yet he’s inked to welcome DWCS grad Armen Petrosyan (but not that Armen Petrosyan) to the Octagon for the first time at the end of February. He likely tops out as an always entertaining member of that group that lives between 16-30 in the rankings, but as I’ve been saying the whole way through this, middleweight is wide open and with enough wins, anyone can crack the Top 15.
BRUNO SILVA: the 32-year-old earned three stoppage victories in seven months to establish himself as an intriguing figure in the 185-pound weight class, and his impending date with Pereira carries a great deal of violent potential and divisional significance. He’s won seven straight, all by stoppage, and has shown legitimate fight-changing power, rallying to beat Andrew Sanchez in the third after dropping the first two rounds, and with a victory over Pereira, “Blindado” should be considered a dark horse contender.
PUNAHELE SORIANO: the Xtreme Couture product returned after a year on the sidelines recovering from hip surgery with a first-round stoppage win in January, but suffered his first professional loss to Brendan Allen in July. He’s still in the developmental stages of his career — he’s 8-1 overall — and has a good foundation to build upon, plus a terrific group around him, but in order to make real headway in the division, the Hawaiian needs to do more than look to land big shots on the feet. His pairing with Maximov in February will be instructive in terms of figuring out where each fighter is at in their development.
SEAN STRICKLAND: the 30-year-old Californian may not belong in a civilized society, but inside the Octagon, he’s mighty competitive, having pushed his winning streak to five with two more victories in 2021. Strickland remains unbeaten in middleweight competition — he went 15-0 at ‘85 to start his career, made a seven-fight stopover at welterweight, missed two years, and came back to add four more victories at middleweight. He’s another one of these guys that just knows who he is, fights within himself, and is suffocating to deal with on the feet because while he doesn’t have big power, his conditioning is excellent, his technique is clean, and he never stops coming forward. If he beats Hermansson next month, he’ll be a win away from challenging for gold.
DARREN TILL: this is another guy in the “I’m done with this dude” camp for me, because for all the attention he generates, all the talk about how good he is — and I hate that I’m about to say this — what has he really done? His best win is a questionable split decision nod over “Wonderboy” in a fight where he missed weight by a considerable margin, which, fair play, is a good win, but beyond that, he edged out Kelvin Gastelum, who can’t buy a win, and stopped Donald Cerrone over four years ago. He reads to me as a guy that has no idea how to look at himself in the mirror, acknowledge his shortcomings and struggles genuinely, and take the steps needed to correct things, opting instead to paint the most favorable picture of himself possible, and I just feel like guys like that will always have a hard time actually reaching the top. Till is 1-4 in his last five, coming off a major knee injury, and in desperate need of not only a win, but a statement performance that gives people a reason to believe he can be the contender he and many others claim him to be.
MARVIN VETTORI: I think Vettori is currently operating at the absolute peak of his powers and deserves more credit than he gets for what he’s accomplished over the last handful of years. Sure, he’s lost to Adesanya twice, but he’s 6-0 against everyone else since their first encounter, and amassed that record without having a particularly dynamic skill set. The 28-year-old Italian is solid everywhere, but it’s his conditioning and relentlessness that make him formidable and a threat to everyone other than “The Last Stylebender” in the 185-pound weight class.
ROBERT WHITTAKER: the former middleweight champ used the last 18 months to re-affirm his standing as the top fighter in the division behind the champion and set up a rematch with Adesanya, which currently stands as the most anticipated fight on the calendar for me; yes, more than Ngannou-Gane in two weeks. Whittaker is technically sharp, excellent at making mid-fight adjustments, and a major Dude Qualities guy as well, and while he got blown out in his first meeting with Adesanya, I’m ultra-curious to see what a second fight between the two looks like now that “The Reaper” is in a better place mentally and physically.
Tune in tomorrow for the next instalment in the Fighters to Watch 2022 series, where we’ll wrap things up in the light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions.