Fighters to Watch 2022: Welterweights
After a standout year from the reigning champ, who are the fighters that might potentially make waves in the 170-pound weight division in 2022?
So I was listening to Monday’s Ryen Russillo podcast with Trent Dilfer, and the former NFL QB dropped a term that I immediately knew I was going to add into my lexicon for describing fighters.
And yes, I said those words aloud while I was driving to the pharmacy in the snow — “Well I’m adding that to my lexicon for describing fighters.”
Dilfer was talking about Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, the sophomore gunslinger who is more of a Brett Favre-type versus the hyper-athletic, quick release types that are his contemporaries today. In breaking down what makes Burrow great, Dilfer said he’s high in “DQ — Dude Qualities” and I instantly knew what he meant.
Burrow has moxie, the right kind of stubbornness, and that ineffable something that makes you know you want him under center in January when you’re down four with two minutes on the clock and no timeouts. He’s one of those guys that will take the extra second in order to make the play, even if it means getting walloped, because, he kind of enjoys getting walloped, as long as he makes the play.
There are a lot of fighters that have high DQ scores — my guy Pat Sabatini is a perfect example, as someone that doesn’t blow you away with his athleticism or one individual skill, but is just dogged and game and tough and competitive as all get-out.
So I want to say thanks to Trent Dilfer for the term, and look forward to breaking it out routinely going forward.
Onto the welterweights!
Check out previous instalments in the Fighters to Watch 2022 series here (number of athletes discussed in parenthesis):
Strawweights (29)
Flyweights (41)
Bantamweights (43)
Featherweights (31)
Lightweights (33)
WELTERWEIGHT
KAMARU USMAN
“The Nigerian Nightmare” was the unanimous Fighter of the Year in 2021 after successfully defending his title three times and running his record to 15-0 in the UFC, leaving him one victory shy of equaling Anderson Silva’s record for the most consecutive victories in UFC history.
It honestly feels like we’re not talking about that piece and Usman’s overall amazing run enough, or at least not with the right framing. While all kinds of people want to litigate whether he or Georges St-Pierre is the greatest welterweight of all-time, I just want to sit here, say that both were awesome, and enjoy what Usman is doing without immediately trying to turn it into some kind of debate or argument.
Usman’s three victories in 2021 all showed us a little something different.
The win over Gilbert Burns showcased his resolve, as he got clipped early and was forced to steady himself before rallying back and finishing the fight early in the third. His victory over Jorge Masvidal two months later exemplified the work he’s been doing with Trevor Wittman and how far he’s come as a striker, with his knockout win over “Gamebred” earning copious amounts of Knockout of the Year love.
And his second narrow win over Colby Covington in November illustrated that Usman has the wherewithal to navigate challenging fights and do what he needs to in order to retain his title and continue marching forward. His American rival gave him everything he’s got for the second time, and for the second time, Usman was just a smidge better.
What’s really interesting (to me, at least) as we embark on another year with the 34-year-old atop the division is that there isn’t an immediate contender at the ready or anyone that truly stands out above the pack; rather, there are three or four hopefuls that are likely a win away, meaning we may not see the champ defend his title until Q2 or even Q3.
SEAN BRADY: speaking of guys with high DQ scores… Brady kept his unbeaten run going in 2021 with wins over Jake Matthews and Michael Chiesa, climbing into the rankings and establishing himself as one of the top emerging contenders in the UFC. The heavily-inked Philly man isn’t going to wow you with any one skill (though his grappling is terrific), but instead he’s just a complete fighter who keeps getting better every time out. He honestly reminds me a lot of Usman when he was climbing the ranks, and I look forward to seeing how he does when facing even greater challenges in 2022.
RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ: if Sayif Saud is “The General” at Fortis MMA, Brahimaj has already climbed to the rank of Captain and has his sights set on Major. In addition to being an ascending coach and cornerman, the 29-year-old is also an intriguing welterweight, who rebounded from having his ear torn off his head to secure a dominant first-round submission win in his lone appearance of 2021. He’s up against Court McGee next week in a fight that should tell us more about where he fits in the division and what the next 18-24 months could entail.
RANDY BROWN: it’s taken a few years, but the former Lookin’ for a Fight discovery seems to be putting everything together nicely, entering 2022 on a two-fight winning streak and having won four of his last five. The 31-year-old has excellent length for the division and uses it well, plus he’s an opportunistic finisher, as evident in his no-hooks finish of Alex Oliveira last April. He’s due a step up in competition again, likely against someone on the fringes of the Top 15, if not a member of the lower third, so who he’s paired off with and that one shakes out should be extremely instructive.
GILBERT BURNS: you’ve got to give it up to Burns, man. After having Usman in a bad spot and then getting finished himself, Burns started chasing down every opportunity he could, working diligently to talk his way into a major fight that would put him right back in the title conversation. He ultimately landed opposite Stephen Thompson, grinding out a good win, and should face another Top 10 opponent in his first assignment of 2022.
MICHAEL CHIESA: “Maverick” started 2021 with his fourth straight win since moving to welterweight, but closed the year on a two-fight slide, getting submitted by Vicente Luque in September before dropping a decision to Brady in late November. He was coming on in the final stages of that three-round scrap with Brady, and had good moments against Luque; he simply got ahead of himself and got caught. I think Chiesa’s destiny is to be the guy Jeremy Stephens was at featherweight for a really long time: serving as that tough veteran out just outside of the Top 5 that hopefuls have to beat in order to prove they’re legit contenders.
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV: I still have no idea where Chimaev’s ceiling rests, but with each passing appearance, it climbs higher and higher for me. He wiped out Li Jingliang in his lone appearance of 2021, pitching his third straight shutout, showing no lingering issues from his struggles with COVID and cementing his standing as a looming boogeyman in the 170-pound weight class. I still want to see him face and beat a Top 10 opponent before garnering a championship opportunity, but even I can understand just giving him the next shot to see what he can do at this point. Provided he remains healthy, 2022 should be a pivotal year for the ultra-talented 27-year-old.
COLBY COVINGTON: the fact that Covington is 0-2 against Usman doesn’t actually do justice to how close those two fights were, how talented a fighter and dogged a competitor “Chaos” is, or how in a non-Usman world, he’d probably be a dominant champion. Put the personality and persona piece aside — the dude can fucking fight! A reset into the Katlyn Chookagian, “show me you deserve a title shot,” last boss before the final boss role is likely where he ends up for the next year, but even that brings the potential for some really interesting and potentially entertaining fights.
NATHAN DIAZ: I can’t with this guy and his acolytes any more. I get the anti-hero appeal and why people find him amusing, but I tend to focus on results and the active ecosystem, and Diaz doesn’t live in that world. He’ll get a big fight in 2022 because he always ends up in a big fight whenever he feels like taking a big fight, but pretending he’s a player in the title picture or anything more than the UFC’s version of “The Rock,” parachuting into WWE for major one-off appearances here and there is a mistake. (Note: being The Rock is a great gig and I’m happy Diaz is getting his bread; he’s just not a guy I want to hear talked about as a divisional threat, because he’s just not at this point.)
LEON EDWARDS: it’s fitting Edwards follows Diaz in this list because despite beating him in June, “Rocky” still feels like he’s trailing the Stockton native in the title chase, as preposterous as that sounds. The 30-year-old from Birmingham (by way of Kingston, Jamaica) is unbeaten in his last 10, has a win over Vicente Luque, and his last loss came against Usman. He’s the closest thing to a No. 1 contender there is in the division at the moment, though I’m not sure he gets the next shot. He’s certainly done enough to merit an opportunity, but Edwards remains the poster boy for how merit only gets you so far these days.
IAN GARRY: the 24-year-old Irishman had his UFC debut in November after racking up two more wins under the Cage Warriors banner in the first half of the year. Though it wasn’t as one-sided as I think most envisioned, Garry still secured a first-round finish, validating the hype to a certain degree and setting himself up as one of the top emerging names to track in the entire UFC heading into 2022. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Garry take more of a Sean O’Malley approach going forward, rather than hustling into the deep end right away, as he’s only eight fights into his pro career.
TREVIN GILES: I’m including Giles, who is 5-3 in the UFC across two divisions, in this list because I’m curious to see what he looks like at welterweight following after making his last seven starts in the 185-pound ranks. He was an undefeated prospect when he arrived in the UFC, beat good competition on the way to the Octagon (Ryan Spann, Brendan Allen), and has flashed upside and power in the past, so I want to get a closer look before saying where I think he fits. Fortunately, we don't have to wait too long as Giles is scheduled to face DWCS grad Michael Morales at UFC 270.
CARLSTON HARRIS: the 34-year-old Harris was one of my favorite new additions to the UFC roster in 2021, posting a pair of first-round finishes to instantly establish himself in the 170-pound weight class. He’s lost just once in his last 10 fights (to a very talented fighter, Jarrah Hussein Al-Silawi), and is slated to face undefeated hopeful Shavkat Rakhmonov in early February. A win there raises his stock and puts Harris in that mid-pack class, with an avenue to facing a Top 15 opponent in the second half of the year.
KEVIN HOLLAND: I think Holland has a ton of talent, but I just want to see it. Enough with the social media posts and playing the part and yapping during fights — go out there and actually execute, otherwise what good is any of the other stuff? After a 5-0 year in 2020, the former middleweight went 0-2 with a No Contest in 2021, and now he’s headed to welterweight, where there are still wrestlers that are going to test his takedown defence and ability to get back to his feet. I honestly feel like 2022 is a make-or-break year for the 29-year-old.
VICENTE LUQUE: the 30-year-old Brazilian followed up his two-win 2020 with a two-win 2021, finishing both Tyron Woodley and Michael Chiesa with D’Arce chokes in under five minutes. “The Silent Assassin” has climbed into the Top 5 and has an outside case for a title shot next, but most likely needs one more win. He’d make an interesting dance partner for Chimaev, and a fight with Gilbert Burns would be awesome if they weren’t best friends. The only thing I don’t want to see is Luque facing Colby Covington, simply because “Chaos” shouldn’t be picking off fresh contender just yet.
JAKE MATTHEWS: I still think Matthews has some upside in the 170-pound ranks, and refuse to hold a third-round submission loss to Sean Brady against him. He’s still just 27 despite having been in the UFC since the middle of 2014, and is 6-2 since moving to welterweight. He likely tops out in that pack just behind the Top 15, but I’d like to see him fight a little more frequently and face someone that isn’t Brady before settling on that assessment.
BELAL MUHAMMAD: Muhammad accomplished all his goals for 2021, earning a pair of victories and climbing into the Top 5 following his relentless win over Stephen Thompson on the year-end show. The Chicagoland native is a grinder with a bottomless gas tank, and as much as you know what’s coming, he’s still hard to stop and keep off you. He has 10 wins in his last 12 appearances, but has already faced Luque and Edwards, so that might make him the perfect partner for Burns or Brady whenever he’s ready to start his 2022 campaign.
GEOFF NEAL: the Fortis MMA representative ended a little two-fight skid with a unanimous decision victory over Santiago Ponzinibbio at the start of December, returning to the form that carried him into the Top 10 at the close of 2020. Watching him fight, it often seems like the only thing standing between Neal and greater success is his own hesitation, which I’m sure Sayif Saud will continue to address. He’s a dangerous talent in the Top 15 and someone to watch as a potential ascending talent in the welterweight ranks.
MICHEL PEREIRA: Pereira doesn’t look like a 28-year-old and he doesn’t look like a welterweight on fight night, but here we are, with “Demolidor” entering 2022 on a three-fight winning streak in the 170-pound weight class. He’s dialled back the crazy in those three victories and it has resulted in fewer mistakes, which is a positive tradeoff for giving up some of his suddenness and highlight reel attacks. He’s pencilled in opposite Muslim Salikhov next weekend, and the winner has to be someone we talk about heading into Q2.
SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV: a perfect 14-0 for his career, including 2-0 in the UFC, Rakhmonov is one of several emerging talents from former Soviet nations with the potential to climb into the Top 15 or higher in their respective divisions this year. He made quick work of “Cowboy” Oliveira in his debut and followed it up with a second-round finish of Michel Prazeres in June, setting him up for his impending showdown with Harris. With another finish there, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 25-year-old “Nomad” get an earlier-than-most look at facing a Top 15 opponent.
DANIEL RODRIGUEZ: I have a hard time trying to write about Rodriguez because he’s 6-1 in the division and folks know he’s good, but he’s also one of those cats who slip from memory when talking about the people on the fringes of the Top 15 because he’s just a blue-collar, meat-and-potatoes fighter that doesn’t blow you away with any one skill. He made the most of his three opportunities in 2021, capping things with an upset win over Kevin Lee, and feels like he should be fighting one of the guys in the lower third of the rankings coming off a loss in his first fight of 2022. Tell me you wouldn’t watch Rodriguez vs. Jingliang or Ponzinibbio…
MUSLIM SALIKHOV: “King of Kung Fu” has won five straight after losing his promotional debut, out-working Francisco Trinaldo in his lone appearance of 2021. The 37-year-old has a limited window to push into the Top 10 or beyond, and his impending date with Pereira, should he win, would be a catalyst to carrying him into matchups with higher-ranked opposition, potentially. Honestly, he’s more likely to remain in this range, as there is no need to risk a genuine emerging talent opposite a 37-year-old fighter, but we’ll see.
MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER: when you register two knockout wins in under 20 seconds in the same year, you make this ensemble, even if “Semi” did drop a decision to Khaos Williams in between his 16-second finish of Jason Witt and 15-second win over Martin Sano Jr. in September. The 29-year-old former college football player is 3-1 in the UFC and still just putting the pieces together on who he is as a fighter, but with his power, he’s a perennial threat, and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he connected a few more dots and made a little push in 2022.
KHAOS WILLIAMS: the final man on this list collected a pair of victories in 2021, out-working Semelsberger in June before stopping Miguel Baeza in mid-November. The Michigan native is 4-1 in the UFC and carries tremendous power, though he’s shown an ability to work deeper into fights since debuting with back-to-back rapid finishes last year. There are still elements of his game that we haven’t seen tested, primarily his wrestling and grappling, but just on his striking skills and overall athleticism alone, Williams is one to watch at welterweight going forward.
Tune in tomorrow for the next instalment in the Fighters to Watch 2022 series, where we’ll take a look at the middleweight division.