Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 25
Reyes or Prochazka? Swanson or Chikadze? Step inside and find out.
Last week in this space, I announced that “We’re going streaking!” a la Frank “The Tank” Ricard in Old School.
Well guess what?
My wife didn’t pick me up while I was running down the middle of the road butt naked, prompting me to question whether KFC was still open because a 9-4 night at UFC 261 means the hot streak continues, so I just might make it all the way to the quad!
Over the last five events — UFC Vegas 22 through UFC 261 — the worst I’ve done is a .600 winning percentage (6/10 at UFC 260) and combined, I’ve gone 39/56 with my picks during that stretch, good for a .696 winning percentage.
As I said last week, it’s hard to keep a run like this going all year because upsets happen, bad analysis happens, and things always tend to get away from you at some point or another, so I’m going to keep enjoying it, keep having a couple laughs about it in the lede to this piece each week, and hopefully keep handing you some ways to make a couple bucks if you’re turning these picks into wagers like my guy Patty B from Mission.
This is another competitive slate of fights, so let’s see if we can’t carve out another good night and keep this thing rolling into May.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 25.
Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka
John Hyon Ko, Ryan Galloway and I got into these top two fights in the last third of the SCMP Live Chat Q&A on Thursday night and I stand by the analysis I offered there:
As much as I like the chaotic violence Jiri Prochazka brings to the table, I do think he tends to get hit too much and Reyes has more weapons at his disposal than Volkan Oezdemir did and has shown an ability to utilize those weapons in ways that many fighters just don’t have, like his ability land back foot counters like the one Dan Tom highlighted here in his fight with Jared Cannonier:
I also think Reyes’ ability to fire off kicks to all levels is a wrinkle that Prochazka didn’t have to contend with against Oezdemir and a potential path to victory for “The Devastator,” who looks to halt a two-fight skid on Saturday.
While I believe there could be moments where Reyes is in trouble — and don’t dismiss Prochazka’s ability to win this fight — I do believe the two-time title challenger will take advantages of the newcomer’s low hands and willingness to trade, earning a stoppage victory somewhere between the second and fourth rounds.
Prediction: Dominick Reyes by TKO
Cub Swanson vs. Giga Chikadze
As I mentioned in 10 Things yesterday, Swanson is someone I’m always going to root for and enjoy watching compete, and I think this is a crucial matchup for Chikadze, who has looked good against middling competition thus far.
While it’s tempting to roll with the guy on a five-fight winning streak with a kickboxing pedigree and lots of supporters who believe he’s destined for big things in the featherweight division, I’m siding with Swanson because I’m more of a “show me” than “tell me” kind of guy and I just haven’t seen anything out of Chikadze yet that has me convinced he can deal with the diversity of skills “Killer Cub” brings to the Octagon.
I honestly think this is going to be a fight where we see Swanson’s wrestling and grappling skills on display again, as it’s an area people often overlook when it comes to his repertoire and it should, in theory, the weakest elements of Chikadze’s game. Even though his UFC career has been highlighted by striking battles and “beautiful destruction” on the feet, the WEC alum is a legitimate BJJ black belt and has enough wrestling in his back pocket to close the distance and put Chikadze on the deck, where his array of punishing kicks are nullified.
Much like the main event, I absolutely understand the reasons for picking Chikadze and would not be surprised to see him keep his momentum going, but coming off a pair of “Y’all Must Have Forgot” victories in his last two starts, I think Swanson delivers another “I’m Still Here!” performance on Saturday night to secure his third straight win.
Prediction: Cub Swanson by submission
Ion Cutelaba vs. Dustin Jacoby
These boys are going to be swinging from the start and it will continue for as long as both of them are upright, which I don’t think is going to be too long.
Cutelaba is just too wild, too aggressive, and too emotional for me to pick, ever, especially when he’s facing someone with the refined striking skills Jacoby brings to the cage. While he’s not as fluid and effortless as Magomed Ankalaev, who bested Cutelaba twice in 2020, the Factory X Muay Thai product is a smooth kickboxer with good power in his hands, and I full expect him to take advantage of the Moldovan’s penchant for swinging wildly and putting himself in bad spots.
How this sound: a kick to the body hurts him and the follow-up strikes put him away, giving Jacoby his third straight UFC victory.
Prediction: Dustin Jacoby by TKO
Sean Strickland vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Sean Strickland is the real deal, man, and I think this will be the moment more people come to understand and recognize that truth.
For whatever reason, far too many people are out here believing his last two appearances were the first two middleweight fights of his career and that’s just not the case — dude was 13-0 on the regional circuit at ‘85 before signing with the UFC, earned wins over TUF alums Bubba McDaniel and Luke Barnatt in his first two UFC fights at middleweight, and then dropped down to welterweight, which was always crazy because it was a terrible cut that robbed him of a lot of what made him really competitive at ‘85.
Even then, the only guys that beat him were Santiago Ponzinibbio, Kamaru Usman, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, so it’s not like he was losing to scrubs and this resurgence since returning from an awful motorcycle accident should be completely unexpected.
Strickland does his best work behind fundamentally strong boxing and very good conditioning, and I think that’s all he needs to get the better of Jotko on Saturday. A steady diet of one-twos, some work to the body, and a methodical, “in your face” pace will be enough to either drowned the Polish veteran with volume or produce a late-stage finish.
Either way, Strickland moves to 18-0 at middleweight and people start talking about him as a dark horse contender.
Prediction: Sean Strickland by unanimous decision
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cody Stamann
Look man, I just can’t pick against Merab right now; not when he’s out here posting Khabib-like takedown numbers. “The Machine” had 27 takedowns in three fights last year, including 25 in back-to-back efforts against Casey Kenney and Gustavo Lopez.
I was having a hard time coming to a decision on this one all week, but once I dug into the stats a little more (shouts to UFCStats.com) and started thinking through how it actually plays out in real time, I just can’t see Dvalishvili not coming away victorious. He has the longer reach, the better cardio, and while Stamann is also a wrestler by trade, he’s given up seven takedowns (compared to earning 11 of his own) over his last six fights, and nearly half of his successful attempts came when he registered five takedowns against Song Yadong.
This feels like it’s going to be a suffocating performance from Dvalishvili — close the distance, snatch a leg, put Stamann on the canvas, lather, rinse, repeat… probably close to 10 times.
Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision
Poliana Botelho vs. Luana Carolina
I don’t have a real great read on this fight because Botelho has been wickedly inconsistent and Carolina is coming off a gruesome submission loss where I thought her leg was going to snap in two at the knee, plus her stats are inflated due to a couple hellacious beatings doled out to overmatched opponents.
Generally speaking, the story of Botelho’s last couple fights has been “whomever controls the takedowns, controls the fight,” as she lost to both Gillian Robertson and Cynthia Calvillo when those ladies were the offensive aggressors and in top position, but beat Lauren Mueller by putting her on the deck a couple times.
In instances like this, I tend to side with the athlete who has faced the superior competition and has a larger body of work at this level, so I’m picking Botelho with limited confidence, hoping that things don’t go horrible awry to start the main card.
Prediction: Poliana Botelho by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Luana Pinheiro def. Randa Markos
Gabriel Benitez def. Jonathan Pearce
Kai Kamaka III def. TJ Brown
Loma Lookboonmee def. Sam Hughes
Luke Sanders def. Felipe Colares
KB Bhullar def. Andreas Michailidis
2021 PDP Record: 95-64-1, 2 NC (.586)