Punch Drunk Predictions: UFC Vegas 28
Heavyweight scraps, a welterweight gem, and so much more — but who will get their hand raised this weekend in Las Vegas?
I don’t know why, but every time we come back from a break like this, my brain immediately plays that SNL skit where Jimmy Fallon was a drive-time DJ that shouted “AND WE’RE BACK!” coming out of commercials.
I didn’t watch a ton of SNL during those days, and I actually thought Fallon wasn’t particularly good on SNL from what I did see because he cracked up mid-sketch way too often for a guy that was supposed to be able to hold it together. He was no Horacio Saenz, who couldn’t make it through a single moment without chuckling, but he wasn’t great either.
Okay, so maybe I actually watched more SNL than I thought, since I don’t think you can name-check Horacio Saenz and say, “I didn’t watch much SNL during that time” like the two things can exist in unison; they cancel each other out.
Anyway, that’s what’s been dancing through my strange little mind for most of the day as I got ready to sit down and pen this intro because after a week away, WE’RE BACK — back to the UFC APEX, back to predicting fights, back to watching men and women beat the bejesus out of each other for six or so hours on Saturday evening.
While there are probably few people that are as interested in this card as I am, but there are undeniably some fun fights, intriguing matchups, and potential excitement on tap this weekend, and I’m just happy to be, well, back.
I like fights. I like watching fights. I like making predictions about fights.
And I like that we’re back.
So welcome back.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 28
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai
There are two real ways I see this one playing out:
1) Rozenstruik comes out aggressively, lands a big shot and gets the finish, or
2) Sakai deploys the same game plan he used in his positive moments against Alistair Overeem and rolls to victory
As much as I have a feeling the first option is more likely, I’m actually going to bank on the second one coming through because re-watching that fight with Overeem this morning, I was reminded how good Sakai looked in the first and second round, half of the third, and the early stages of the fourth, before things went absolutely sideways.
He throws in combination coming forward, mixes in kicks, works the body in the clinch, and generally keeps the pressure on, which is kind of the way I think he have to fight in order to beat Rozenstruik, who isn’t great moving backwards, and can be kept off-balance by active, pressuring opponents.
I could be all the way wrong and Rozenstruik might light up the Brazilian in a flash, but I really like what I saw rewatching the tape and with his upside in general, so I’m rolling the dice on Sakai getting back in the win column on Saturday.
Prediction: Augusto Sakai by unanimous decision
Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura
These two dudes are moving in different directions — Harris is on a two-fight skid; Tybura has won four straight — but I don’t really think they’re that far apart from one another when it comes to the heavyweight hierarchy, but I do think this matchup will put some distance between them.
I don’t put any weight in Harris’ loss to Alistair Overeem — everyone knew he was returning to action too soon after the tragic kidnap and murder of his daughter and it showed. I recognize the loss to Alexander Volkov that followed, but I’m not particularly troubled by it either though, as Volkov is clearly a cut above “The Big Ticket” and one of the top contenders in the division, something Tybura is not.
That’s not a knock on the steady Polish veteran who has handled his business four times in a row; it’s just the truth — he’s good, not great, and a quick glance at his resume shows you precisely where he falls in the division.
And I think Harris is a little bit better.
He’s more athletic, more fluid, more powerful, varied in his attacks, and I have a feeling there is a different kind of energy and urgency coursing through his veins as he readies to step in for this one. Harris is going to be 38 next week and he’s got to know that if he’s going to get back to the form that carried him into both iterations of that Overeem fight, he needs to get started now, and I think he will.
Each of Tybura’s last three losses have come inside the distance, and something tells me Harris is going to land something funky that gets this one done before the judges have to get involved.
Prediction: Walt Harris by TKO
Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli
This is a weird one to me because I don’t know what to make of Staropoli at this moment, as he moves up to middleweight after missing weight for his last welterweight assignment, in the midst of a two-fight skid against middling veterans, after collecting two victories that carry very little weight on June 4, 2021.
Additionally, this is Dolidze’s second bout at middleweight after dropping a decision to Trevin Giles last time out. Before that, he eked out a victory over John Allen in an ugly fight that felt like neither guy was particularly interested in winning down the stretch. And before that, he threw a kick that Khadis Ibragimov dipped into, resulting in him getting kneed in the head and knocked out.
See where I’m going with this?
(reaches in pocket, pulls out coin)
I’m going to side with Dolidze because he should be the considerably bigger and strong man in there on Saturday as the former light heavyweight facing the long-time welterweight, and I hope he makes ample use of his five-inch reach advantage to keep Staropoli outside of forced to race in a little recklessly, where he can walk onto something funky or get pieced up for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Roman Dolidze by TKO
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza
I think this is going to be Baeza’s coming out party.
Ponzinibbio had a really great run at the wrong time, then lost what would have been the two biggest years of his career (potentially) due to a litany of injuries and infections and illnesses. It’s a damn shame because he’s an entertaining fighter and there would have been plenty of fun matchups for him, and who knows how things would have shaken out, but after seeing him come out a touch slow against Li Jingliang earlier this year, I just don’t like his chances against the young, hunger, dangerous MMA Masters representative this weekend.
While Ponzinibbio being a slightly diminished version of the fighter he was pre-hiatus plays a role in this pick, it’s mostly because I think Baeza has one of the higher ceilings of any emerging talent on the roster. He’s a legit black belt, has solid power and quality finishing instincts, and we saw in the Matt Brown fight that he already has the wherewithal and savvy to do the right things when he’s clipped and in trouble.
Though he’s only made three UFC appearances thus far, I also like that he lands at a 55% clip because it means he’s being judicious with his shot selection and energy expenditure, while still having a tremendous amount of success. Those are all traits and attributes you don’t tend to pick up when you’re 28-years-old and just 10 fights into your professional career, but Baeza already has them and that makes him a special talent to watch going forward.
He has a perfect finishing percentage inside the Octagon thus far and I think that holds up on Saturday, as Baeza will beat Ponzinibbio to the punch, get him hurt, and put him away, most likely in the second round.
Prediction: Miguel Baeza by TKO
Dusko Todorovic vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues is one of those dudes that is 29, but looks like he’s going on 37.
That has nothing to do with this fight itself, but is just one of those observations I feel compelled to share because when I saw his age listed at 29, I audibly laughed, said, “Bull-shit!” and looked around my empty office for support.
I was intrigued by Todorovic coming off the Contender Series, but his loss to Punahele Soriano earlier this year prompted me to abandon ship, not because Soriano is a subpar prospect or anything (he’s not), but because Todorovic took an “I’lll stop your punches with my face” approach that was mighty, mighty worrisome.
Rodrigues’ loss to Jordan Williams on the Contender Series last summer looks more than more like an aberration with each passing fight — a short-notice roll of the dice where he landed some big shots, but got caught with one in return and went down. He won six straight before that and has won two more since, both by stoppage, and he should push that run to three this weekend.
Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues by TKO
Tom Breese vs. Antonio Arroyo
If the pattern holds true, this will be a tremendous performance by Breese where he ends things early and rekindles belief that he could emerge as a middleweight contender some day soon.
Even if there weren’t a pattern to follow, I think that would be the case, as the British southpaw has smooth, fluid hands and can be dangerous on the ground if Arroyo looks to change levels and escape getting boxed up by taking it to the floor. Given how things went for Arroyo against Deron Winn last time out (“Not great, Bob!”), I just don’t see a real path to victory for the struggling Contender Series graduate.
My guess is Breese finds his range and rhythm early, punches Arroyo to the canvas, and finishes him with a choke.
Prediction: Tom Breese by submission
Preliminary Card Predictions
Montana De La Rosa def. Ariane Lipski
Tanner Boser def. Ilir Latifi
Francisco Trinaldo def. Muslim Salikhov
Makwan Amirkhani def. Kamuela Kirk
Mason Jones def. Alan Patrick
Manon Fiorot def. Tabatha Ricci
Youseff Zalal def. Sean Woodson
Jordan Leavitt def. Claudio Puelles
2021 PDP Record: 115-86-2, 2 NC (.561)