UFC 264: Punch Drunk Predictions
Poirier or McGregor — who wins their epic trilogy fight on Saturday night?
One more sleep.
Tomorrow evening, the most anticipated fight card of the year touches down at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, as Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor renew acquaintances to settle their rivalry, meeting for the second time this year and third time overall with far more than bragging rights on the line.
But this is not a “one-fight show” by any means.
After a pair of early prelims with lesser known names, the final 11 bouts on this 13-fight card carry some level of intrigue and importance, with ranked competitors, emerging prospects, and resurgent veterans looking to make another push towards contention squaring off at different points along the way to the main event. Title pictures will be clarified, rankings will need re-adjusting, and lists of top contenders in various weight classes will require editing when all is said and done on Saturday night, and most importantly, the UFC and its fight-loving fans will have a clearer picture of what comes next in the lightweight division and what to expect from Conor McGregor going forward.
But before we can get to the takeaways and talking points, we have to sift through the action that is about to take place inside the Octagon this weekend.
Here’s how I think things will play out.
These are the UFC 264 Punch Drunk Predictions
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
I want to preface this by saying that Conor McGregor is a terrific fighter and anyone suggesting that he has no chance in this matchup on Saturday night doesn’t understand how all of this works. He hit Dustin Poirier with some stiff shots in January and is more than capable of finding a home for his left hand and earning a victory this weekend.
With that said, I think Poirier beats him again, and relishes doing so.
McGregor seemed desperate on Thursday at the press conference and throughout the build to this fight; he’s trying to get under Poirier’s skin because he knows shaking his rival mentally is the best thing he can do to increase his chances of beating him inside the Octagon. But Poirier is having none of it — he wasn’t bothered by any of the chatter, and even dropped the best lines of the farcical event, leaving McGregor speechless on more than one occasion.
As for the fight itself, it’s something Poirier said towards the end of the event that has me leaning heavily in his favor — that he’s had his boots strapped on for 10 years, while McGregor is just putting his hard hat back on for this fight.
Being through the fires these last several years really reshaped Poirier as a fighter — he’s learned how to navigate adverse situations and come out the other side with his wits about him, and really honed his skills and approach to where he is, in my opinion, the best lightweight in the world. McGregor was that in the past, but he hasn’t been that guy for a while and it’s not something you can just pick up and put back on when you’re getting ready to compete.
My guess is that McGregor comes out aggressively in the first, looking for a quick finish, pushing the action, trying to find a home for that left hand, and when it doesn’t land, Poirier will start chipping away. I have a feeling the Irish superstar will hang tough and this will go into the latter rounds, but Poirier is too sharp, too focused, too smooth and will find a finish somewhere in the middle frames.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier by TKO
Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson
Thinking about this pairing since it was announced, I’m just not sure why it doesn’t play out like Stephen Thompson’s last two fights.
Taking nothing away from Gilbert Burns, who is an excellent fighter and has flashed real elite skill in his transition to welterweight, but chasing down and cutting off Thompson isn’t the same as marching down a gun-shy Tyron Woodley or catching Demian Maia with a left hook. “Wonderboy” is a different breed when it comes to range fighting and though some people have found success against him, it’s not a long list and I don’t think Burns joins it on Saturday.
Thompson has shown over his last two fights — clean, strong decision victories over Burns’ BFF and training partner, Vicente Luque, and Fortis MMA product Geoff Neal — that he still moves exceptionally well, is still difficult to hem in, and has the gas tank to go five rounds doing what he does, so three rounds should be a breeze.
Daniel Cormier and Ryan Clark broke it down exceptionally well Thursday on the debut episode of their new show, DC & RC:
Thompson moves too well, is too crafty on the feet, and sound in his ability to escape trouble spots to get pinned against the fence or taken down and controlled on the ground. He has a solid reach advantage, 78% takedown defence, and the ability to interrupt Burns’ rhythm with side kicks and sneaky long punches as he’s escaping to his left and right.
Expect a surgical, tactical victory for “Wonderboy” this weekend.
Prediction: Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision
Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy
Greg Hardy is getting knocked out.
I’m not saying this because I’m trying to will it into existence because I want to see Hardy get his karmic comeuppance for his past transgressions and general unrepentant approach to the things that actually made him infamous in the first place, it’s because I think Tai Tuivasa is a much better fighter and after stumbling in the midsection of his current UFC run, he’s rebounded nicely.
As a fighter, Hardy has upside, but it’s limited because of how late he transitioned to the sport, his conditioning, and the fact that he’s essentially gone straight to the UFC without logging a couple or four years on the regional circuit working things out.
That three-fight struggle Tuivasa had after winning three straight to start his UFC career? That’s where I feel Hardy is at now, up against guys that are too experienced, too game, too sharp for the converted football player who is still green and learning on the fly to come in and catch them with something funky that spoils their night.
I know it’s not Tuivasa’s M.O. but it certainly would make a lot of sense for “Bam Bam” to get inside, dump Hardy to the canvas, and beat him up there, as we saw in his fight against Marcin Tybura that he has no real options once he’s on the ground.
Either way, I think the big fella from the area gets it done inside the distance.
Prediction: Tai Tuivasa by TKO
Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya
I think this fight is going to further illustrate the tiers that exist within the women’s bantamweight ranks, as Aldana enters off a unanimous decision loss to Holly Holm where she couldn't get anything going against the former champion, and yet seems more than capable of blasting through Kunitskaya here.
For the record, those tiers are as follows:
Tier One: Amanda Nunes
(several thousand metres)
Tier Two: Holly Holm, Germaine de Randamie
(several hundred metres)
Tier Three: Aldana, Aspen Ladd, Julianna Pena
(several hundred metres)
Tier Four: Kunitskaya, Ketlen Vieira, Pannie Kianzad, Macy Chiasson, Sarah McMann, Julia Avila, Karol Rosa
Aldana is a little more fluid, a little more forceful, a little quicker and sharper and more powerful than Kunitskaya and I think we see that on Saturday. To her credit, the Russian veteran has done a very good job of grinding out tough wins over solid competition for most of her UFC career, but there is just nothing that stands out about her game and leads me to believe she can stand up to Aldana’s boxing.
I believe we’ll see a return to the form that produced five wins in six starts for Aldana ahead of the Holm fight, and come away with an even greater appreciation for Nunes and the top two contenders in the division.
Prediction: Irene Aldana by unanimous decision
Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho
Sean O’Malley was going to beat Louis Smolka, and he’s certainly going to beat Kris Moutinho; the only question in each case is how dominant will it be?
As someone who has been critical of O’Malley’s attempted walk-off against Thomas Almeida in the first round of their fight earlier this year, I want to make sure people understand that despite that specific criticism, I think “Suga” is the real deal and a future contender, potentially champion. His striking is outstanding and his ability to understand range is tremendous and he’s only going to keep getting a little better every time out.
I think this is going to look similar to his fight with Eddie Wineland, where he walks Moutinho down and lands a laser that ends the fight in a snap because (a) O’Malley craves those highlight reel moments, and (b) he has no reason to mess around and take risks against Moutinho, who deserves full marks for accepting the sacrificial lamb position here knowing it gets his foot in the door with the UFC and a chance to really show what he’s capable of on a full camp, against a much more suitable opponent next time around.
O’Malley collects another stoppage win and another Performance of the Night bonus and we all get back to wanting to see him in there against a Top 15 fighter.
Prediction: Sean O’Malley by TKO
Preliminary Card Predictions
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit
Niko Price def. Michel Pereira
Ilia Topuria def. Ryan Hall
Dricus du Plessis def. Trevin Giles
Jennifer Maia def. Jessica Eye
Brad Tavares def. Omari Akhmedov
Zhalgas Zhumagulov def. Jerome Rivera
Alen Amedovski def. Hu Yaozong
2021 PDP Record: 138-113-2, 4 NC (.538)