UFC 264: Why Burns-Thompson Winner Isn't Next for Welterweight Title
Saturday's co-main event will help delineate things in the 170-pound weight class, but not establish the next championship challenger
Both participants in Saturday’s penultimate pairing believe and want to convince you that a victory this weekend should put them next in line to challenge for the UFC welterweight title.
Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson are currently ranked No. 2 and No. 4 in the UFC rankings.
The former put the current champion, Kamaru Usman, on unsteady footing in the early stages of their title clash earlier this year, while the latter only fighter amongst the Top 4 contenders that Usman hasn’t already vanquished.
Burns won six straight prior to losing to Usman in February, looking outstanding in his four welterweight triumphs after relocating from lightweight on a whim. Thompson enters on a two-fight winning streak, having registered clear decision wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal in his last two outings.
Like Burns, “Wonderboy” has fought for the title before, coming up short in a pair of clashes with Tyron Woodley; the first battle being ruled a draw, and the second a decision win for “The Chosen One.”
A victory on Saturday night would certainly bolster either man’s case for contention, though neither is likely to be the next to challenge for the welterweight title, for multiple reasons.
Reason 1: Colby Covington Exists
Like it or not, Colby Covington is stationed at No. 1 in the rankings and is the most likely candidate to challenge Usman next. He too has already fought for the title, losing to Usman in a gripping back-and-forth battle at UFC 245 in what was the champion’s toughest test to date.
As much as his heel persona is grating and he comes off as a massive try-hard, Covington is a tremendous fighter who rebounded from his loss to Usman with a very good performance against Tyron Woodley and has been suggested by the UFC brass as Usman’s next opponent, and statements like that carry a great deal of weight.
Running this one back would also create a window for the UFC to properly cultivate the another contender and further clarify things in the 170-pound weight class, especially with Luque and Michael Chiesa set to do battle later this summer. Between that one and the winner of this one, you’re starting to create a clearer picture, and it could be refined even more if the winners fought, establishing the overall victor as a truly worthy title challenge.
Is that a lot to ask of the 38-year-old Thompson? Perhaps, but earning four consecutive victories after a 1-3-1 run doesn’t seem like too much to ask of a potential title challenger, and getting two quality wins following a stoppage loss feels like a reasonable ask of Burns as well.
Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like this makes a lot of sense.
Reason 2: Leon Edwards Exists
If Covington doesn’t get next, Edwards should.
Hell, Edwards should probably get his first title shot before Covington gets his second, but things being the way they are, it’s far more likely that “Rocky” has to keep waiting for his opportunity, and at this point, what’s another six-to-eight months?
Edwards is unbeaten in 10 fights since losing to Usman way back when they were both relative newcomers facing off on the undercard of what has aged into one of the most impressive fight cards in UFC history, the December 19, 2015 UFC on FOX event in Orlando, Florida that featured a lightweight title fight in the main event, Nathan Diaz’s win over Michael Johnson, the UFC debuts of Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Valentina Shevchenko, and Francis Ngannou, plus appearances by Alistair Overeem, Junior Dos Santos, Charles Oliveira, and Luque.
I get that the last two have had dicey moments — the eye poke against Belal Muhammad and Diaz’s last-minute successes — but at some point, you have look at the overall picture and not the individual moments, and in terms of overall resume, Edwards has done more than enough to merit a championship opportunity, especially ahead of Burns and Thompson.
I know most people don’t care, but stylistically, he matches up really well against Usman, offering a southpaw opponent with a complete tool kit, quality gas tank, and unwavering confidence, plus a medium-sized chip on his shoulder after being passed over and pushed back more than a couple times already. Outside of Covington, who forced Usman to dig deep in order to get the win in their first meeting, Edwards looks to me like the guy with the best chance to topple the current titleholder.
Reason 3: Conor McGregor Exists
One little angle to keep an eye on heading into this weekend’s main event between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor is whether or not McGregor sets his sights on the welterweight title with a victory, which something that I absolutely could see him doing.
As I said on Tuesday, McGregor is a big game hunter and while most people tend to see Saturday’s headlining clash as a battle to determine who is next to challenge for the lightweight title, I believe the Irish superstar would be far more inclined to chase history and a fight with Usman should he emerge victorious than look for a fight against Charles Oliveira for a title he’s already claimed once before.
Loathe as I am to admit it, a fight between Usman and McGregor works on every level, for all parties involved:
Usman gets a fight with the biggest star in the sport, which brings increased exposure, increased opportunity, and increased income
Stylistically, it feels like a very winnable fight for Usman, who could use his wrestling to grind down McGregor
McGregor gets a chance to make history once again, against a fresh adversary, with plenty of time to prepare
You know “The Notorious” one believes he can knock Usman out after seeing Gilbert Burns make his legs turn to jelly
The UFC gets a gigantic fight to close out the year, where regardless of the outcome, the winner heads into 2022 as a massive draw
If McGregor wins this weekend and says the welterweight title is what he wants next, Covington and Edwards should just start getting ready to face each other because Usman versus McGregor will be the next welterweight title fight.
Note: Covington would probably just continue to wait because of course he would; Edwards would be more likely to take a fight, though he’d rightfully be real selective about it.
Reason 4: We’ve Already Seen Both Fights (For the Most Part)
I know this sounds somewhat contradictory given that Usman’s last fight was a championship rematch and his next fight has a strong likelihood of being a rematch, but:
The fight with Masvidal was Usman’s request and made financial sense for the UFC
Usman would like to punch Covington many more times and the first fight was close
The fight with Edwards took place nearly six years ago and things have changed since then
As for Burns and Thompson, we literally just saw how a fight between Usman and Burns plays out in February and while the Brazilian had a good start and looked like he might pull off the upset, the champion steadied himself, found his range, and went to work, finishing things just 34 seconds into the third round after battering Burns throughout the second.
Watching that fight at home, I actually thought Usman almost did enough to win the first round despite getting cracked, which tells you how one-sided things were from that hopeful moment for the challenger early on.
I know we haven’t seen Thompson share the Octagon with Usman, but we did see 10 rounds between he and Tyron Woodley, a powerful wrestle-boxer, and I’m not really sure things would be all that different if we subbed in “The Nigerian Nightmare” for “The Chosen One” all these years later.
Additionally, there isn’t a hook there, beyond “he’s the only guy that Usman hasn’t beaten.” I know that angle was enough for Julianna Pena to secure a bantamweight title fight with Amanda Nunes, but the former TUF winner came out spitting fire at “The Lioness,” calling herself the best grappler in the division and suggesting Nunes was actively avoiding her.
“Wonderboy” is far too wholesome and genuinely wonderful to say anything untruthful or untoward about Usman in order to secure a fight, and unfortunately “I deserve it” hasn’t been a strong enough argument to secure a championship opportunity for quite some time.
Reason 5: Someone Else Will Make a Stronger Case
Let’s map this out here, just for argument’s sake, factoring in a win for each of Saturday’s co-main event competitors:
Covington: already in line, already talked about as next, first fight was close, you know Usman wants it
Edwards: being unbeaten in 10 is hard to argue against and hard to skip over again, but you never know
Burns: one win removed from getting stopped by the reigning champion, though a quick KO would help his case
Thompson: three-fight winning streak, no history with Usman; stopping Burns would help
Given that today is July 7 and there hasn’t been even the slightest hint of another welterweight title fight being booked yet, we’re probably looking at October at the absolute earliest, but most likely a December fight.
That means over the next six months, fighters like Chiesa and Luque have a chance to bolster their respective cases (beating the other is a big positive) as fresh names that have yet to challenge for championship gold. Both guys head into their UFC 265 clash on winning streaks — Luque three fights, Chiesa four — so a fourth or fifth straight victory, coupled with a clean championship slate just might be enough to skip passed established options like Burns and Thompson.
And what if last summer’s darling Khamzat Chimaev finally finds his way back to the Octagon, mauls a Top 15 opponent, makes a quick turnaround, and mauls another Top 10 fighter? You think that ridiculous push that had people begging for him to get a Top 10 opponent last summer won’t return in greater force, prompting people to suggest that he face Usman for the welterweight title?
Again, either man will have a good case for being in contention with a win on Saturday, but neither will have a great case, not with all the other options that are out there.
I don’t like throwing out a bunch of possibilities and not trying to work through how everything would ultimately line up, so let’s see if we can’t figure out how to book the welterweight division over the next six months and get some things straightened out along the way.
Key fights to consider:
Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson (UFC 264, July 10)
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor (UFC 264, July 10)
Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque (UFC 265, August 7)
Sean Brady vs. Kevin Lee (August 28)
Other names to consider:
Colby Covington
Leon Edwards
Neil Magny
Belal Muhammad
Geoff Neal
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Khamzat Chimaev
Caveat #1: if Conor McGregor wins on Saturday, I really do believe he’ll get the next welterweight title shot and how things get booked in the 170-pound weight class shifts dramatically.
Caveat #2: if McGregor loses and then opts to face Nathan Diaz in a trilogy bout, a win there could throw him right back into the conversation next year; that’s just the way it goes with “The Notorious” one.
Caveat #3: relationships makes some of this tricky because Burns and Luque are long-time training partners and corner one another, so they’re not facing each other
Here’s how I would book the welterweight division going forward from Saturday night in a world where McGregor loses to Dustin Poirier:
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington — December PPV
Leon Edwards vs. Gilbert Burns / Stephen Thompson winner — get it on the same card, Edwards as lead substitute
Michael Chiesa vs. Burns/Thompson loser (if Chiesa beats Luque)
Michael Chiesa vs. Geoff Neal (if Chiesa loses to Luque)
Vicente Luque vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (regardless of result versus Chiesa)
Neil Magny vs. Belal Muhammad
Brady/Lee winner vs. Geoff Neal
Brady/Lee loser vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Look, this isn’t ideal for Edwards, but putting him on the same card as the title fight with the potential of being a full-camp fill-in if something goes sideways is better than spending another extended stretch on the sidelines.
The relationship between Luque and Burns complicates things a little, as does the history between a few of the fighters in this exercise, as Edwards and Thompson have beaten Luque, who has beaten Muhammad, who also lost to Neal, which takes those matchups off the table. Ironically, Chiesa lost to Lee at lightweight, but it was somewhat controversial and in a different division, so you could actually run that one back if needed, though it wasn’t necessary here.
All those interactions work against Luque, but that’s just how things shake out when you’re in the Top 5, but have faced two guys already and won’t fight another; you get whomever is available, even if it means “fighting backwards” against a menace like Ponzinibbio.
But this feels like a solid collection of fights, and if you spin it forward to January 1 using these matchups, here’s where we’re left in the welterweight division as 2022 kicks off:
Usman or Covington as champ
Usman or Covington as Top 3 stalwart
Edwards or Burns/Thompson winner as No. 1 contender
Edwards or Burns/Thompson loser still in the mix depending on how that one shakes out
Chiesa as next in line if he beats Luque and the Burns/Thompson loser
Luque as next in line if he beats Chiesa and Ponzinibbio
Luque still as an all-action Top 10 fighter if he beats Chiesa, but loses to Ponzinibbio
Ponzinibbio back as a contender if he beats Luque
Ponzinibbio still an all-action Top 15 fighter if he loses to Luque
Neal moving in the right direction and establishing a floor for himself if he beats Brady/Lee winner
Brady/Lee winner as an emerging contender if they beat Neal
Brady/Lee loser still someone to track if they beat Chimaev
Chimaev deservedly in the mix and back in the fast lane to contention if he beats Brady/Lee loser
Burns/Thompson loser as “VIP Gatekeeper” if they beat Chiesa
Magny or Muhammad as “Top 10 Entrance Exam”
Magny or Muhammad as “Top 15 Entrance Exam”
Potential Wild Card: Conor McGregor
Superstar Guest Stars: Jorge Masvidal, Nathan Diaz
Additional Top 15 Holdovers: Demian Maia, Li Jingliang, Muslim Salikhov
Just Outside Top 15: Niko Price, Michel Pereira, Randy Brown, Miguel Baeza
Top Prospect: Shavkat Rakhmonov
Others to Consider: Max Griffin, Carlos Condit, Jake Matthews, Alex Morono, Khaos Williams, Jeremiah Wells