UFC San Diego: Punch Drunk Predictions & Betting Selections
Offering thoughts on who will win and ways to make a little scratch on Saturday night's action inside the Octagon
So last week was the start of a new adventure in the Friday prediction column, as I introduced the “Wanna Make a Bet?” segment, as promised. While the predictions went about as well as they have been going all year — 7-3 overall, moving the winning percentage up a tick — it was a rough start on the betting front.
I liked all my plays.
I thought they were well thought out.
And I hit a couple of them, including a straight underdog pick of Geoff Neal and Serghei Spivac finishing in the second round.
But on the whole, I was down 1.17 units, which is not at all how I wanted to start.
That being said, it is a terrific reminder that picking fights and gambling on fights is really goddamn difficult and not something you should do frivolously if you’re doing it with real money and not a pile of Monopoly money like I am.
Just be responsible, okay?
Onto the good stuff…
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Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
There are ways for Cruz to win this fight, however, I believe Vera is the kind of fighter that, even if he’s down at some point, can either (a) get a finish or (b) do enough damage in the latter rounds to swing the scorecards in his favour. I’m basing this assessment on a combination of factors:
Cruz got stung a couple times by Pedro Munhoz, who otherwise was kind of just following him around the cage
Vera did the whole “it’s close, so I’ll just finish you” think to Frankie Edgar last November at MSG
Vera beat the face off Rob Font last time out and while Cruz moves more than Font, he’s still gonna get hit
I told the boys before we started recording the Severe MMA Preview Show that I’m starting to think that “Chito” Vera is genuinely one of the best bantamweights in the world, as in, “I think he could maybe win the title” and they both looked at me like I was crazy. I think he shows them I’m not as crazy as they think this weekend.
Prediction: Marlon Vera
Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama
Landwehr has never met a brawl he didn’t want to take part in, but I think that works to his disadvantage here, as I expect Onama to do good work from the outside and connect with the heavier, more impactful blows throughout.
Onama will have a solid reach advantage, more sudden power, and feels like a fighter that is trending upwards, while Landwehr is a scrappy old cuss who is settled into position in the middle of the division. It could get messy, but ultimately, I think Onama gets his hand raised for the third time this year.
Prediction: David Onama
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Jauregui is the more polished of the two and looks like someone to keep tabs on in the strawweight division going forward.
While I still maintain that Lucindo has upside as well, this feels like a fight where the slightly older, more athletic, more dynamic fighter of the two gets the job done. There have only been eight finishes in 21 fights so far this year in the 115-pound ranks, but Jauregui has a good chance to make that nine in this one.
Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui
Devin Clark vs. Azamat Murzakanov
I was surprised that Clark was the underdog in this fight, though I understand the logic.
Murzakanov is 11-0 for his career and coming off a third-round knockout win in his promotional debut, but if you watch that fight, he was dog tired and found a finish against an inexperienced Tafon Nchukwi, who hasn’t developed at all since his Contender Series days, which makes me sad, because he showed so much promise at one point.
Clark is younger, bigger, more athletic and also coming off a third-round finish, and I think as long as he avoids getting hit with a bomb in the first, he should be able to grind out a win or a late finish over “The Professional” this weekend.
Prediction: Devin Clark
Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira
This is one of those “Please know that I don’t feel good about this at all” situations because picking Lipski is an uncomfortable thing since I do believe I’ve been wrong about her fights quite a bit during her UFC career. (Note: though after checking the records, I’ve gotten her last two correct)
Cachoeira doesn’t go away easily, but she’s beatable on the feet and even more beatable on the ground, and I believe that one way or another, Lipski will do enough to get the job done. There could be some dicy moments because Cachoeira swings for the fence and carries some pop, and Lipski has been known to make mistakes, but I like how Lipski looked last time out against Mandy Bohm and I think that will carry over here.
Prediction: Ariane Lipski
Bruno Silva vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Fights involving Meerschaert go one of four ways:
He gets knocked out in violent fashion
He gets hurt badly, survives, and rallies to win
He chokes you out
He can’t get you to the canvas and loses an uneventful decision
Since I don’t think he’s going to be able to get Silva to the canvas, I think Options 3 & 4 are off the board, which means he’s either getting tagged and coming back or getting tagged and we’re going home, and I don’t know if you’ve watched Bruno Silva fights, but he’s not exactly a “hurt you and let you get back up” kind of guy.
Option 1 it is!
Prediction: Bruno Silva
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Preliminary Card Picks
Loopy Godinez def. Angela Hill
Martin Buday def. Lukasz Brzeski
Nina Nunes def. Cynthia Calvillo
Gabriel Benitez def. Charlie Ontiveros
Tyson Nam def. Ode’ Osbourne
Josh Quinlan def. Jason Witt
Da’Mon Blackshear def. Youssef Zalal
2022 PDP Record: 212-115-0, 1 NC (.646)
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Wanna Make a Bet?
UFC Vegas 59 Results
Units Wagered: 8.00
Units Returned: 6.83
Difference: -1.17
ROI: -14.63%
So one thing I am going to start doing, as of this week, is walking you through my thought process with these picks. Some will be simple — I think this fighter will win, therefore, I’m betting on them to win — while others will be a little more complicated, but should give you a little more insight into (a) what I’m thinking when I make these selections and (b) what the real gamblers are looking at when they’re making some of their plays.
Alright, here are the UFC San Diego plays and explanations:
0.25u PDP Parlay +67435
0.25u PDP Main Card Parlay +2290
If I happen to go 12-for-12 on the entire card or even 6-for-6 on the main card with my selections, I want to be able to do more than say I went 12-for-12 or 6-for-6, so a little quarter unit play on each parlay only makes sense given the robust potential returns.
0.50u Yazmin Jauregui by Decision +140
0.25u Yazmin Jauregui by Finish +225
Jauregui is a -200 favourite, and yet I can get plus odds on her winning the fight. If she wins, I make money.
0.50u Ariane Lipski by Decision +150
0.25u Ariane Lipski by Finish +240
Lipski has slightly shorter odds than Jauregui (-188) against Priscila Cachoeira, but again, there is a way to get plus odds on her winning the fight. If she wins, I make money.
0.50u Bruno Silva to Win in Round 1 +150
0.25u Bruno Silva to Win in Round 2 +450
Similar to with Jauregui and Lipski, Silva is a favourite (-300) that I think is going to win, but this time, while the method of victory odds aren’t great (-163 to finish), the round odds offer a chance to make a solid return if he gets it done inside of two.
1.00u Nina Nunes to Win +162
I think Nunes beats Cynthia Calvillo, who got thumped on last time out to where her corner threw in the towel for her. It’s a coin-flip fight in my eyes and I’m taking the plus money.
1.00u Tyson Nam to Win +200
0.50u Tyson Nam to Finish +375
0.50u Tyson Nam to Win in Round 1 +850
0.25u Tyson Nam to Win in Round 2 +1200
So I’m stacking some bets on Tyson Nam. Generally speaking, if Nam is going to win, it’s by knocking out Ode’ Osbourne, which we’ve seen happen in the past, and so in addition to getting some money in on Nam to win and Nam to finish, I’m adding a little on the round betting front as well because the prices are too high to not garner a little investment.
UFC San Diego Total Wagers: 6.00u