Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
Q: Where does Santos fit at this moment?
I used the picture above because this is the last memory we all have of Thiago Santos — him failing to generate much sustained or impactful offence through the opening two rounds of his bout with Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 259 in March, resulting in a third consecutive setback for the Brazilian veteran.
Entering Saturday’s main event clash with Walker, Santos is in an interesting position: he’s stationed at No. 5 in the rankings, but on a three-fight slide, except the first of those losses was his ultra-close battle with Jon Jones for the light heavyweight title, which was as much of a moral victory as one could have inside the Octagon.
The other two losses were also against fighters ranked ahead of him (Glover Teixeira, Rakic), so it’s not like he’s been getting beaten by scrubs, but there were clear moments in each of those contests where you couldn’t be faulted for thinking, “Are Santos’ days as a contender over?”
That’s why this fight with Walker is so intriguing to me — because unlike some of last week’s contests that weren’t going to provide clear answers about upside, while raising the floor for some prospects, this one feels like it will actually answer the question that is being asked because I think we have a pretty sound understanding of where Johnny Walker fits in the division.
Yes, he has power and anybody can get caught, but that fight with Nikita Krylov showed us a hole in his game that isn’t likely to be fixed, not in a way that will allow him to hang with the upper echelon talents that can wrestle.
And so if “Marreta” can’t bounce back here, against an entertaining, but incomplete fighter like Walker, it will signify (at least to me) that his days as a contender are over.
Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus
Q: What did those two losses teach Holland?
Last year’s record-setting middleweight enters Saturday’s meeting with Daukaus on a two-fight slide, having be largely dominated for the last 10 rounds he’s been inside the Octagon, a far cry from when he was stacking victories and talking smack in 2020.
As detailed earlier in the week, some of Holland’s hype was flawed, and he’s always profiled as someone that doesn’t fight up to his actual abilities, often making things tougher on himself than they need to be. He’s a skilled fighter with legitimate upside, but a profound lack of focus, and while he’s still been able to win a solid number of fights thus far in his UFC career, Holland still heads into this weekend’s contest outside of the Top 10 and feeling like a bit of a disappointment.
Daukaus is a quality prospect who has struggled thus far in the UFC, amassing a 1-2 record in his first three straights and coming into this one off a flat effort opposite Phil Hawes. But he’s a grappler, and a good one at that, and if Holland hasn’t learned from his losses, the potential is there for him to get taken down, controlled, and defeated again.
To his credit, he’s spent time with the crew at AKA and has been working with Johny Hendricks, who will be in his corner Saturday, so his takedown defence and ability to work back to his feet should be better, but his struggles never felt like a lack of skill or know how to me; it was about want and drive, and I’m curious to know if he’s worked on those over the last bunch of months as well.
Alex Oliveira vs. Niko Price
Q: Can Price win a non-chaotic fight?
Niko Price is winless in his last three fights heading into this one, and his last two efforts have been decidedly normal, at least in terms of the frenetic madness everyone has come to expect when the Coral Gables, Florida resident steps into the Octagon.
Both Donald Cerrone and Michel Pereira refused to engaging in a chaotic battle with Price, and for much of each fight, “The Hybrid” didn’t really seem to know what to do. He had some moments and got into his bag late in both fights, salvaging a draw with Cerrone before it was overturned when Price popped for weed, but with a chance to make some real headway in the division on the line, he struggled to navigate a pair of decidedly non-chaotic battles.
And I’m genuinely curious to find out if he’s one of those fighters that needs things to be wild in order to thrive.
Price’s greatest strength throughout his UFC run has been his ability to find openings and exploit them no matter the circumstances, but it has always been in the midst of a wild fight. We’ve yet to see him jab his way through a three-round decision or wrestling himself into top position and finish with regular old ground-and-pound — he lands wild shit, weird shit, one-of-a-kind shit, and it usually comes while we’re all freaking out on Twitter because the action in the Octagon is straight up bonkers.
Now, Oliveira loves himself a messy tussle too, so we’re more likely to get a fight that is tailor-made to Price’s preferences, but maybe just keep this question in mind for later if things do get crazy on Saturday.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Q: What does changing divisions do for Cirkunov?
According to the Latvian-Canadian, whom I spoke to on Wednesday for an interview feature currently up on the UFC website, changing divisions finally gives him the same advantages many of his opponents have enjoyed during his light heavyweight run — superior size and strength, plus increase power.
That may be true, but I never felt like what was holding Cirkunov back at light heavyweight was a lack of size or strength or power; it was his chin.
Each of his four UFC losses have been stoppages due to strikes — some of the one shot, one kill variety; others an accumulation of punishment — and they’ve all come in the first round. While the heft of the athletes he’s faced certainly contributes to their punching power and the impact of their blows, some people just don’t take punches well and I’m not sure that changes all that much moving down a division.
Yes, in theory, the middleweights Cirkunov is now going to face won’t hit quite as hard as Glover Teixeira, Johnny Walker, or Ryan Spann, the last three men to fell the rugged grappler, but the middleweight elite are fast and precise and they can still crack, and while physically this might be a better fit for the former Top 15 light heavyweight, I’m cautious when it comes to projecting a surge up the rankings for Cirkunov.
Jotko is a perfect initial test — a low-volume kickboxer with good movement, tons of experience, and a track record in the division, which should allow everyone to get a good read on where Cirkunov fits and start forecasting what his future may hold.
He likened this move to the way top racing teams deal with their cars — you get it as light as possible and then dial everything in from there — and while I understand the analogy, I also know that even though Mercedes and Red Bull and Alfa Romeo and Haas all field F1 teams, the first two are vastly superior to the second two, even though they’re all trying to do the same thing.
So I guess that means it’s time to find out which team Cirkunov represents.
Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson
Q: Where do these women stand in the divisional hierarchy?
Bantamweight needs fresh contenders and the winner of this one will be close to challenging for championship gold, largely because of the dearth of new names ahead of them, but also because they’ve mostly handled their business inside the Octagon.
What I’m really curious about isn’t so much figuring out where in the rankings either or both of these women stand — Ladd is currently No. 3, Chiasson (above) No. 11, and both feel pretty much right — but how far behind the people in front of them they are at the moment? What’s the gap between Ladd and Holly Holm and Germaine de Randamie? How much distance is there between Chiasson and Raquel Pennington, Miesha Tate, and Ketlen Vieira?
No matter how this one shakes out, we should get an answer on one or both fronts, which is pretty much exactly what I’m looking for from a fight like this.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden
Q: Will Hernandez ever become the fighter many envisioned?
There was a time when some people thought Hernandez was a future contender in the lightweight division, but that feels like eons ago now. Some of that is because the last two years have felt like 15, but it’s also because we’re so far removed from Hernandez’ quick start in the UFC that it’s hard to remember when he was a fresh-faced newcomer with a world of promise.
The 28-year-old is 2-3 in his last five fights and coming off a bout where he didn’t do all that much, clearly lost a decision, and reacted like he’d been robbed, which doesn’t help change my impression of him as someone that doesn’t have a completely accurate picture of where he stands in the division in his head at all times. Remember — Hernandez was talking like he was going to blow through Donald Cerrone when they were set to clash at the start of 2019, and “Ol’ Cowboy” waltzed in and stopped him inside of two rounds.
Hernandez is skilled and he has talent — we’ve seen it, sporadically of late — and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him tap into it again this weekend against Breeden, a short-notice replacement that fell short on the Contender Series last summer, but has won two straight since. Running through Breeden isn’t a fix-all or won’t fully change my skepticism about whether Hernandez can ever become the guy so many thought he was going to be, but it’s a damn good way to start down that path.
And if he struggles… that’ll be telling too.
Joe Solecki vs. Jared Gordon
Q: How good is Solecki?
I love guys like Solecki — unheralded, no-flash, younger or newer talents that simply handle business and could become Top 15 fixtures in the not too distant future if given a chance to prove they belong.
Think Brad Riddell, but without the City Kickboxing team singing his praises and AUS/NZ MMA Twitter not hyping him as a juggernaut.
Solecki is 3-0 in the UFC with a submission win over Austin Hubbard sandwiched between unanimous decision victories over Matt Wiman and Jim Miller. Those are good wins, quality wins, the kind of wins that tell me you’re not just a guy that’s going to get stuck alternating wins and losses in the middle of the division for the next several years, never winning more than two or three straight while also never going into a real tailspin either.
When I wrote about him in the Fighters to Watch series, I said I don’t think he profiles as a top-end talent, but rather more of a Joe Lauzon type, and I probably should have clarified that a little more because I mean like the very peak version of Lauzon when he got closest to being a contender; someone that spends a couple years hanging out in the lower third of the rankings, serving as a miserable matchup for everyone.
But all my assessments are fluid and if Solecki keeps posting victories over solid opposition, I may have to reconsider where I’ve thus far projected his ceiling to rest.
Antonina Shevchenko vs. Casey O’Neill
Q: Is O’Neill ready to be a Top 15 fighter and climb the ranks?
Let be start by saying this: the flyweight division is still a little shallow, which means that winning three straight can vault you into the Top 15, where three straight barely gets you noticed elsewhere; ask Solecki.
Regardless of the lack of depth in the division, Casey has a chance to crack the Top 15 with a win over Shevchenko on Saturday and I’m fascinated to find out whether or not she’s currently ready to hang with the absolute best the division has to offer. While I will certainly acknowledge that no one is on the same level as the champion and the top couple contenders are in a league of their own as well, flyweight is one of those divisions where 3-15 feel somewhat interchangeable depending on who has a good night and who doesn’t, and adding Casey into the mix would be mighty interesting.
She could be 8-0 with three straight wins in the UFC when she turns 24 next Thursday, and if that’s the case, Casey will need to be considered in the same grouping as Maycee Barber and Miranda Maverick, maybe even slightly ahead of them, as one of the top young talents in the 125-pound weight class and an absolute must-watch fighter going forward.
This fight with the elder Shevchenko is perfect because while she’s been inconsistent in her six UFC starts, the Contender Series grad has beaten each of the three unranked, middling talents she’s faced, and how Casey does against her on Saturday should clarify whether he’s currently ready to face the best or still needs a little more seasoning before making a real push.
Bethe Correia vs. Karol Rosa
Q: Will we ever see another Bethe Correia?
Here’s what I mean: Correia was always a flawed fighter, but she made the most of her initial opportunities, played the game exceptionally well, and landed herself a championship opportunity, becoming a recognizable figure in the MMA world, and I’m not sure if we’ll ever see someone replicate that feat.
Too many people are no longer interested in seeing the “best available contender” challenge for championship gold — they want the perfect fight, the biggest fight, the most interesting fight — which means fighters like Correia that catch lightning in a bottle will end up facing a vanquished, but still very good top-end talent before fighting for the title, at which point, they’re likely going to get knocked out of line.
Personally, I never had a problem with Correia or Chris Cariaso or Patrick Cote before them getting championship opportunities because there are times where there just isn’t anyone else in line or a better option. No one wants champions sitting on the sidelines for too long, but most people also want them facing frisky challengers or marquee names every time out, and those two things just don’t line up.
Correia knew what she was doing when she went back-to-back against Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler, throwing up the Four Horseman four and then dropping two fingers, and I love it as much today as I did then, even though just like everyone else, I knew she was going to get throttled by Ronda Rousey.
She’s the last fighter to challenge for a title without having beaten a single Top 10 opponent — Felicia Spencer and Megan Anderson don’t count; their division is a wasteland and they did all they could to earn their respective beatings — and she’ll probably be the last to do so.
Between that and her post-fight posterior shaking, it’s not a bad little legacy for a good, but never great competitor.
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Devonte Smith
Q: Can Smith recapture his momentum?
Devonte Smith was rolling heading into the summer of 2019 — six-fight winning streak, back-to-back murderball knockouts in his first two UFC appearances, a ton of buzz in a division where standing out is a challenge — and then shit went sideways.
Like hard right, out of nowhere, crash into a wall sideways.
He got knocked out by his friend, former training partner, and short-notice opponent Khama Worthy in August 2019, and then had a harrowing year in 2020, which Thomas Gerbasi discussed with Smith in an outstanding piece last summer. He returned to action in February, collecting a second-round stoppage win over Justin Jaynes, but it didn’t resonate the way his earlier wins did. Too much time had passed, too many others had made waves and garnered attention in his stead.
Smith returns on Saturday in what should be an all-action scrap with Australian Jamie Mullarkey, and I want to see if the Factory X Muay Thai representative can find a way to recapture the attention of the fickle audience that seemed to be all-in on him before he lost to Worthy.
We talk all the time about how MMA is different than boxing because fighters lose and one loss doesn’t derail your career, which is true, but it sure does cause a whole lot of fair-weather motherfuckers to quickly abandon ship and act like you never existed, and I’m curious to see if another strong performance here can help Smith reclaim some of that momentum… because it should, because folks shouldn’t have bailed as soon as he hit a bump in the first place, and Smith is too talent to not pay attention to going forward.
Douglas Silva vs. Gaetano Pirrello
Q: Can we please recognize the importance of fighters like Douglas Silva?
Douglas Silva is 4-4 in the UFC.
He lost his debut, won two fights, and has alternated losses and wins ever since, heading into Saturday’s bout with Pirello off a loss to Lerone Murphy in January. He’s 36 years old and in the twilight of his career, at least at this level, and is a guy that the vast majority of MMA media types, yet alone fans, couldn’t pick out of a lineup or know much about.
But he’s the exact kind of guy every division needs and we need to give fighters like Silva their flowers.
The four people to beat Silva inside the Octagon are Zubaira Tukhugov, Rob Font, Petr Yan, and Murphy. That a flawed, but hyped prospect (at the time), two bantamweight standouts, and an emerging, undefeated British featherweight, and while none of those fights went his way, each of those emerging fighters got better for having shared the cage with him and been forced to deal with his pressure and his power.
Silva was the last person to beat Marlon Vera before he dropped that suspect decision to Song Yadong last year, which has to count for something given how much people have come to love “Chito” and view him as a potential threat in the bantamweight division. He grew because he fought and lost to Silva, and I really do wish we spent more time shouting out these fighters that are essential members of the ecosystem.
Shanna Young vs. Stephanie Egger
Q: Which of these two is going to stick around for one more fight?
Let’s be honest with each other: both of these women debuted on short notice and lost, and now they’re paired up together on Saturday, with the loser likely to get bounced from the UFC; that’s just the way it goes.
Young was on the Contender Series and lost to Sarah Alpar before tagging in to face Macy Chiasson and getting handled with ease, while Egger has a couple noteworthy wins (Mara Borella, Reina Miura), but she too dropped a one-sided decision in her debut opposite Tracy Cortez.
If either were young and still developing, I could see how a second straight loss wouldn’t be the end of the line, but Young is 30 and Egger is 33 and with their limited upside, I have a feeling the vanquished fighter is going to be headed back to the Triple A level after this one.
If there is a silver lining to all this for Saturday, it’s that both should probably be aware of this potential reality and come out chasing a win, so we could end up with a fun little scrap.
Alejandro Perez vs. Johnny Eduardo
Q: Johnny Eduardo is still fighting?
Because I’m the guy that pays attention to every card (and writes the Fight-By-Fight previews for the UFC website), I knew Eduardo was active because he was scheduled to face Anthony Birchak earlier this year.
But I was shocked to find his name in the lineup back then because, well, because he’s my age.
Eduardo just turned 43. He’s been fighting in earnest since 1997, which is the year I graduated high school and started university. He also hasn’t fought since June 2018, when he lost to Nathaniel Wood. He hasn’t won a fight in nearly five years, and his last five fights stretch back to May 2014, when he claimed a Performance of the Night bonus for his win over Eddie Wineland.
This is Nick Diaz coming back, but only if Diaz was like five years old and just a solid, but never spectacular bantamweight, not a cult figure superstar.
It’s wild to me that Eduardo is still on the roster and still hasn’t called it a career.
What are you going to tell me next — John Hathaway is poised to return to action?