UFC Vegas 39: One Question for Every Fight
A little something to think about before each of Saturday's fights
Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez
Q: Is Mackenzie Dern ready to be a title challenger?
We know the stats — 11-1 overall, 6-1 in the UFC with four submission finishes, entering her first main event this weekend against Marina Rodriguez with the No. 4 next to her name. She’s 28 years old, a multiple-time world champion in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and a steady improving mixed martial artist… but is she ready to be a title challenger?
The winner of this weekend’s main event is going to need to win at least one more fight before challenging for the title, provided Carla Esparza actually gets next and we don’t end up needing / having a trilogy bout between Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili, so there will be another chance to further assess this question, but Saturday’s pairing with Rodriguez should help clarify where Dern is at in her development, how much more room she has to grow, and just how formidable she’ll be as a “finished” product.
Rodriguez is the kind of striker that will make Dern pay if she’s fallen too in love with her improving hands and doesn’t look to get inside quickly, but I’m also interested to see what she does once she gets inside. A lot of jiu jitsu players struggle in the transition phase between getting ahold of their opponent and getting them to the ground, and it’s the ones that become good wrestlers and learn ways to initiate the best pieces of their game (think Demian Maia) that become legitimate forces and championship-level competitors.
Dern could get there and her fight with Nina Nunes as a step in the right direction — she worked inside behind her strikes, grabbed a single leg, elevated it, and put Nunes on the mat with a nice step-through trip.
The fight never returned to standing.
Dern patiently worked her way to mount, teasing out openings and opportunities to pass, ultimately clamping onto an armbar setup and methodically working to get it free and get the tap.
Her evolution since arriving in the UFC and especially since her loss to Amanda Ribas has been impressive and if she continues on this trajectory and collects a win on Saturday, there is going to be a lot of buzz about Dern being ready to challenge for championship gold.
Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden
Q: Is Randy Brown finally figuring out how to use his considerable tools properly?
I heard a line in one of the shows I watch — I think it was Heels, but I can’t seem to find it, and it’s driving me crazy — that essentially said, “Even if you have all the tools in your shed, it doesn’t mean you know how to use them or could build anything,” and when I heard it, I immediate looked at my wife and said, “I’m using that” because to me, it’s a perfect distillation of MMA, and Brown feels like a tremendous example of that thought.
“Rude Boy” is in his sixth year on the UFC roster and after a couple up-and-down seasons, he’s finally starting to put it all together, entering Saturday’s contest with Gooden off an impressive first-round submission win over Alex Oliveira and having won three of his last four, collecting finishes in each of those contests. After years of having all the tools, Brown seems to be at a point where he’s figured out how to use them and is ready to start building something in the welterweight division.
We saw last week that getting Oliveira out of there is no easy task, but Brown did it with relative easy, though to be fair, Niko Price finished Brown back in the day, so it’s not like you can make an exact one-to-one comparison. Still, Brown does have pieces that have made everyone real intrigued about what he could become — great size and length, clear power, a chip on his shoulder — and if he’s finally hit a point where all those individual elements are getting lined up and put together properly, he just might be ready to start making a real push towards the rankings.
Gooden is a good measuring stick at this moment, as he’s entering off a blistering win and is the kind of explosive fighter that can derail your hopes and dreams in a hurry if you’re not careful. But if Brown can keep things moving in a positive direction this weekend, we just might have us another emerging talent to track in the 170-pound weight class.
Tm Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau
Q: Is Tim Elliott fixing to make a run to another title shot?
I remember talking with Elliott before his fight with Ryan Benoit, the first fight where he had gone back to Missouri and started working with James Krause again. He sang the veteran fighter and standout coach’s praises, putting his full faith in Krause’s decision-making and embracing a “have fun and do cool shit” approach to stepping into the cage.
He’s 2-0 since, beating Benoit before turning in a dominant effort against Jordan Espinosa last time out. He’d lost three straight before that, but those fights came against top-end competition and before reconnecting with Krause, and I’m real eager to see if getting back to Missouri is really a launch point for another run towards title contention.
This week’s fight with Nicolau is a perfect opportunity to start answering that question, as the Brazilian is an undeniable talent, but also the kind of guy you have to beat in order to prove you deserve to be in the mix. He edged out Manel Kape in his return to the Octagon earlier this year and is 3-1 in the UFC overall, and projects, to me, as someone that lives in the 7-10 range in the division, winning 2-of-3 and 3-of-4 against hopefuls, while coming up short against legitimate contenders.
Elliott is already locked in as an experienced hand in the middle third of the Top 15, but he believes working Krause can help him be more than that. I feel the same way, and am eager to see if it’s true or not.
Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova
Q: What’s to become of Mariya Agapova?
That’s a big, heavy question to ask of a 24-year-old fighter, but right now, Agapova looks like one of those ultra-talented athletes that could go one way or the other — she could figure it all out and become an absolute force or she could be a cautionary tale of wasted potential who is always talked about that “someone that could have been someone.”
Agapova impressed in a losing effort against Tracy Cortez on the Contender Series a couple seasons back, and then earned a pair of stoppage wins under the Invicta FC banner to solidify her standing as an intriguing prospect. She debuted in the UFC in June 2020, quickly submitting Hannah Cifers, and was a colossal favorite in her second appearance against Shana Dobson, but it all went south. After starting quickly, she tired and got finished.
That was more than a year ago, and since then, Agapova has bounced around South Florida gyms. There were unsubstantiated claims by a former training partner of one of those gyms that she had a drug problem and was bounced from said facility as a result, and the standard rebuttal from her manager, who acknowledged the young fighter from Kazakhstan had dealt with some non-drug-related issues, but had sorted everything out.
All of it adds up to Agapova being a giant question mark as she heads into this weekend’s bout with Sabina Mazo, who returns to flyweight after getting out-hustled by veteran Alexis Davis at bantamweight earlier this year.
Mazo, who is also still only 24 years old, is the kind of solid, slightly more experienced fighter that could thrive against Agapova if she isn’t locked in or hasn’t learned from her fight with Dobson, but also not so superior that it’s impossible to envision a path to victory for the swaggering “Demonslayer,” who drew comparisons to Joanna Jedrzejczyk following her UFC debut.
Agapova has is an undeniable, raw talent, but can she develop to be more than that? We shall see, starting this weekend.
Phillip Hawes vs. Deron Winn
Q: How far up the divisional ladder can Phillip Hawes climb?
From Monday’s Fighter to Watch piece on Hawes:
Middleweight is one of those divisions where there are three or four top contenders that have clearly separated themselves from the pack, but then everyone else in the rankings and the next 10-12 fighters beyond that are all pretty evenly matched and somewhat interchangeable, meaning it’s not that difficult to envision a path to the Top 15 for Hawes, especially if he wraps up an outstanding rookie campaign on the UFC roster with a fourth straight victory.
Hawes was someone forecasted for big things when he started, and while it took a little time for him to sort things out, he’s on a nice run and the abundant natural gifts that made him an intriguing prospects seven or eight years ago are now accompanied by experience, guidance from a tremendous collection of fighters and coaches he’s surrounded by at Sanford MMA.
And middleweight, more than most divisions, is one where four or five wins puts you in the Top 15 and from there, one or two more puts you in the championship mix; sometimes it doesn’t even take that much.
Right now, it’s tough to say how far Hawes can climb because he’s looked terrific, but he’s yet to step in with a member of the Top 15, which means there hasn’t been a chance to really see where his ceiling rests. This bout with Winn will answer a few more questions, but not the full collection of them, unless things go south on Saturday.
I think Hawes could find his way into the Top 10 and the Top 5 isn’t out of the question either, so I’ll be watching this weekend to get another read on how he keeps putting things together and how far he can take things.
Chris Gutierrez vs. Felipe Colares
Q: Where do you reckon Chris Gutierrez fits in the bantamweight division?
Bantamweight is so flush with talent right now that there are a ton of talented cats living outside of the Top 15, scratching and clawing to garner a modicum of attention despite having consistent success inside the Octagon. Take Gutierrez for example.
“El Guapo” is unbeaten in his last five, putting together a 4-0-1 record including wins over Vince Morales and Andre Ewell. He’s found a good rhythm of late, trains with a quality crew at Factory X Muay Thai, and I have no real idea where he fits in the 135-pound weight class at the moment.
The Top 15 is loaded and the next 15 are all solid as well, and Gutierrez is probably part of that grouping, but I’m not 100 percent sure. Beating Ewell and Morales are solid wins, and the victory over Morales was particularly impressive, but he struggled early in his draw with Cody Durden, and neither of the last two guys he’s beaten have been able to have consistent success inside the Octagon, which makes it difficult to pin down where he stands.
I love guys like Gutierrez — talented “every time out” competitors that may not reach the upper echelon, but can grind out solid careers inside the cage beating the kind of guys he’s already beaten and maybe taking down a few more established names as a live dog as well. We spend a lot of time fixating on the very best of the best and a bunch of emerging names in each division, overlooking solid 30-year-old’s like Gutierrez that are stacking positive results.
I’m not sure if he moves beyond that 25-35 range in the division — seriously, bantamweight is rugged right now — but in a staggeringly competitive weight class, we need to spend a little more time giving a little more love to guys like that.
And if he keeps putting together victories and looking as solid as he has of late, “El Guapo” just might prove me wrong.
Alexander Romanov vs. Jared Vanderaa
Q: Can Romanov become a factor in the heavyweight division?
Alexander Romanov is 14-0 as a professional and 3-0 in the UFC, and while his last victory was a shaky technical decision when he was unable to continue after getting kneed in the nuts by Juan Espino, his first two were dominant efforts.
Those dominant wins came over low-end heavyweights, and Vanderaa isn’t someone of note quite yet, sporting just a 1-1 mark through his first two trips Ito the Octagon, so this weekend’s contest isn’t going to answer the question at hand in full, but it’s another chance to glean some further information about “King Kong.”
I said yesterday that I think Romanov is the heir apparent to Aleksei Oleinik’s spot as a game submission ace that lives just outside the Top 10 in the division, and want to see over these next few appearances if I’m selling the 30-year-old from Moldova short because he moves much better than Oleinik, has a solid wrestling background that allows him to get into his bag quicker than a lot of grapplers, and it doesn't feel out of the question that he could beat Augusto Sakai or Marcin Tybura, both of whom are currently residents of the Top 10.
From there, one more win makes him a factor, or at least someone you have to consider, and I just want to figure out as early as possible whether Romanov is someone we’re all going to have to consider in the heavyweight division.
Charles Rosa vs. Damon Jackson
Q: Can Charles Rosa break his pattern of results?
Not every fight has to answer a big divisional question; sometimes, part of the interest can come from the weird little things that happen when you spend four, five, six-plus years fighting at the highest level.
Rosa enters Saturday’s bout with Jackson with a 5-5 record inside the Octagon, having literally alternated between losing and winning with each successive fight, and I’m just real curious to see if “Boston Strong” can win two-in-a-row in the UFC for the first time this weekend,.
Now listen, I love this matchup from a competitive standpoint too and think both Rosa and Jackson are part of that vital tier of talent every division needs in order to separate the wheat from the chaff, and want to see each of them continue to inhabit their roles for the foreseeable future, but I also love stupid, fun things like Rosa and Randa Markos going long stretches without every managing the same result in consecutive outings because not every fight has dire consequences.
I really want to see if Rosa — someone who is highly respected amongst his peers and the media — can finally start a winning streak in the UFC or if Jackson is going to be the next man to keep the pattern intact by besting him this weekend.
Loopy Godinez vs. Silvana Juarez
Q: What kind of prospect is Loopy Godinez?
Not all prospects are created equal and part of the fun, at least for me, in the early stages of a prospect’s UFC career is trying to figure out what kind of prospect they are or are going to be when it’s all said and done.
Godinez battled Jessica Penne to a split decision loss in her promotional debut, showing solid all-around skills for someone coming in with just five professional fights. She’s flashed upside, but how far up the divisional ladder can she climb? Is she someone that’s going to be a consistent mid-pack competitor? Can she work into the rankings? Will she blossom into a contender?
I actually think we’re going to get a little better read of that this weekend as Godinez is forced to contend with a short-notice change in opponents, shifting from running it back with Sam Hughes, whom she faced during their amateur days, to Silvana Juarez, a Mexican veteran with twice as many fights who was preparing to compete on the Contender Series next week. Hughes is solid, but equally inexperienced, but someone like Juarez, who trains at the Entram Gym, has a little more savvy, a little better understanding of how to put it all together inside the cage.
A strong performance and a victory here elevates Godinez beyond top-end Triple A talent and gives her a good chance to reach that mid-pack position, with her ceiling remaining undefined for the time being. These are the kind of crucial early fights that help shape a young talent’s career and I can’t wait to see how the Vancouver-based Godinez looks in her sophomore appearance inside the Octagon this weekend.
Steve Garcia vs. Charlie Ontiveros
Q: What is reasonable to expect from Steve Garcia?
I’ll be honest: I have no read on what to expect from Garcia because while he’s faced some solid competition on his way to the UFC, he also missed weight for his Contender Series appearance, which is like showing up to an important job interview hungover with a faint smell of whiskey still coming off you.
He won his next fight under the LFA banner against Jose Mariscal, a solid Triple A talent, but then didn’t have a ton to offer against Luis Garcia in his promotional debut. He was booked to fight Peter Barrett last August and Charles Jourdain in March, but withdrew from each, which means he’s now been on the sidelines since February 2020.
What’s this dude bringing to the table this weekend? That’s what I want to see on Saturday — what does he have to offer and is someone that could stick around long term?