UFC Vegas 42: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Max Holloway secure another victory and further cement himself as the top contender in the featherweight division or will Yair Rodriguez shake up the title picture on Saturday night?
The last seven events are how I wanted this year to go when I started this venture back in January.
My stated goal heading into the first event of the year was to post a .700 winning percentage with my picks. I set the bar high purposely because hitting at that kind of clip is an indicator that the person making the selections — in this case, me — knows what they’re talking about and is provided quality predictions more often than naught.
It’s why I always like posting my results: any bozo can make picks, but seeing the numbers tells you whether someone is just flipping a coin or has a bit of an aptitude when it comes to breaking down fights and forecasting how things will play out.
I went 4-6 on the first show of the year, which, like this weekend’s offering, was headlined by Max Holloway, and struggled for a large part of the year. My upset picks didn’t hit and I was picking too many of them. Close decisions constantly went the other way. The usual collection of upsets added to my generally middling results.
Beginning with UFC 266 at the end of September, I set out to made good on 60% of my predictions the rest of the year, hoping to get my overall year-end percentage as close to that number as possible once the dust settles on December 18.
Since setting that target, there have been seven events, and over those seven events, I’ve gone 62-22-1 with one No Contest, good for a .721 winning percentage, and I’m not going to lie — it feels good.
Over the last dozen events — so from UFC 265 on — I’ve posted 40 percent of my correct picks this year, which is both impressive and a sad reflection of how poorly I did over the first seven months of the year.
Maybe I’m tempting fate by telling you all this, and things are going to crater from here on out, but I don’t believe that will happen.
This was how I envisioned this year going from the outset, and now that I’m here, I’m not going back.
There are five events remaining this year, including this one, and I plan on going out with a bang, not a whimper.
Let’s get to this weekend’s picks.
Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
I don’t know how you could pick Rodriguez here — not coming off a two-year layoff, a nasty bout of COVID, and Holloway having done to Calvin Kattar what the former featherweight champion did to the New England Cartel member in January.
Rodriguez is a dynamic fighter that will not present a stationary target for Holloway, but I don’t believe he has the weaponry necessary to go five rounds with “Blessed” or put him away inside the distance, given that Holloway has only been finished once, and that was in his short-notice UFC debut nearly a decade ago.
The far more likely scenario is that Holloway does what he always does: comes forward behind combinations, working body and head at a torrid pace to where he just drowns his opponent; the outcome becoming increasingly clearer as the fight progresses and Holloway’s confidence growing the wider the margin of victory gets.
It won’t be as lopsided and ultimately uncomfortable as the win over Kattar got towards the end, but this will be another emphatic decision for the Hawaiian nonetheless.
Prediction: Max Holloway by unanimous decision
Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
If you’re into patterns and trends, de Lima enters this one having alternated wins and losses over his last 11 fights, and is coming off a victory, so you know what that means…
Patterns aside, I just don’t think “Pezao” can hang with a capable, competent veteran like Rothwell at this point of his career. As much as the Wisconsin native is no longer a Top 15 fighter, he’s still tremendously skilled for being such a gargantuan human being and brandishes a wealth of experience, both of which make him the exact type of dude that has beaten the Brazilian literally every other time he’s stepped into the Octagon.
Rothwell isn’t going to make a run, but he’s still got plenty left in the tank and should win handily here.
Prediction: Ben Rothwell by submission
Felicia Spencer vs. Leah Letson
It’s great to see Letson finally making her sophomore appearance in the Octagon after three years away and increasing the number of permanent residents in the featherweight division to three, but unfortunately for the returning Ultimate Fighter alum, she’s the new kid in town and this other girl — the one whose been here for a while — is going to beat her up.
Spencer seemed a hesitant last time out against Norma Dumont and it cost her, but I don’t think that’ll be the case here. She’s at her best when she’s pressing forward into the clinch, dragging the fight to the ground, and working from top position, and as much as I’m certain Letson has been busting her ass for this comeback, there something different about being in there with someone trying to drag you to the canvas that taxes your conditioning more than even the toughest of sparring sessions.
It might take a round or two, but eventually, Spencer works into mount and secures a finish, sinking in a choke after the elbows soften Letson up enough to give up her back.
Prediction: Felicia Spencer by submission
Song Yadong vs. Julio Arce
While I can certainly see Song coming out and having the kind of performance that makes it clear he’s taken a step forward and is ready to graduate to the next tier of talent in the bantamweight ranks, I’m siding with Arce here because this feels like it will be a more complete version of Song’s loss to Kyler Phillips earlier in the year.
In that fight, you’ll recall, Phillips out-struck the Chinese Team Alpha Male representative over the first two rounds before holding on down the stretch to earn the decision win. If Phillips can do it, I think a much more polished striker like Arce can as well, especially if he can establish his jab early and capitalize on counters once he gets Song coming forward.
Arce’s two UFC setbacks each came by split decision up a division, and he earned some solid wins up at featherweight as well before returning to bantamweight and stopping Andre Ewell last time out.
I don't think he gets a finish here, but I do believe he’ll earn a second straight victory to add his name to the growing collection of unranked fighters to keep tabs on in the ultra-competitive 135-pound weight class.
Prediction: Julio Arce by unanimous decision
Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams
Williams is always a threat to separate you from your consciousness early and violently. He throws smoke and only needs to land one, which is why I think Baeza will take an alternate approach to this fight, looking to wrestle and showcase his grappling skills as he tries to get back into the win column.
Baeza is hittable — he doesn’t move his head off the center line, and is a little too static when throwing his strikes — so he’d be best suited to closing the distance to get inside Williams’ range, clinching up, and looking to take this to the ground, where he should have a considerable advantage. Working into the clinch means wading through treacherous waters, and he could need to do it a few times, which ups the risk factor for the once-beaten MMA Masters product, but if he can get there without getting put on roller skates (or put out), he should be able to have success.
This one is going to tell us more about where each man stands in the division and their prospects going forward, and I think we’ll come away from Saturday’s main card opener with an appreciation for a different element of Baeza’s game that we haven’t seen much of yet inside the Octagon.
Prediction: Miguel Baeza by submission
Preliminary Card Picks
Thiago Moises def. Joel Alvarez
Andrea Lee def. Cynthia Calvillo
Sean Woodson def. Collin Anglin
Cortney Casey def. Liana Jojua
Marc Diakiese def. Rafael Alves
Kennedy Nzechukwu def. Da-Un Jung
2021 PDP Record: 238-151-5, 5 NC (.596)