UFC Vegas 48: One Question for Every Fight
Ch-ch-changes abound on Saturday's fight card, but plenty of intrigue still remains
A second “Spencer Card” in two weeks? What did I do to get so lucky?
While I’m excited, the majority of people seem to be disappointed with the collection of fights slated to hit the Octagon this weekend, looking at the lineup consisting of two ranked fighters and a bunch of unranked pairs, and feeling like the UFC is trying to slip one passed them.
Except this card was supposed to be headlined by a lightweight banger between Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, which would have made it far more palatable to the masses if it remained in place. But visa issues for Fiziev forced it to be shuffled to the co-main event slot at UFC 272, giving Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill the chance to headline here.
I know everyone wants fight cards with more balance, more familiar names, more ranked competitors and all that, but cards like this are the tradeoff for having Casey O’Neill and Roxanne Modafferi on the prelims and matchups like the two lightweight bouts from last weekend opening the main card. As much as there are tons of fighters on the roster, there are only so many names most folks seem to be interested in, which means there are only so many names to go around.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you this is a must-see fight card. What I will say is that there are some interesting newcomers and angles I want to track on this card and like always, I’m working off the assumption that the whole is going to be better than the sum of its parts on Saturday.
Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill
Q: What are the chances Johnny Walker turns things around?
Johnny Walker is 4-3 in the UFC, the same record Tai Tuivasa was at the start of last year. He’s beaten a couple ranked fighters, but lost to the best competition he’s faced, much like “Bam Bam” at the time, and has shown both flashes of brilliance and moments where remembering he was talked about as a potential threat to Jon Jones seems even more ridiculous than it was in the moment.
But the rangy, goofy Brazilian is still only 29 years old, and despite the fact that he’s gone 1-3 over his last four fights, it doesn’t feel completely out of the question that he puts together a good run and emerges as an actual contender in the wide open light heavyweight division.
So what are the chances? What kind of odds would you give Walker of getting back in the win column this weekend and putting together a three- or four-fight winning streak over the next 18 months that establishes him as a viable championship threat, the way Tuivasa has at heavyweight?
While I don’t have high hopes of it happening, that is the kind of thing I’m keeping in mind as Walker readies to take on Hill this weekend.
Hill is favoured and the latest “he looks like a potential contender” to come along and get that label without having beaten anyone in the Top 10, so I’m curious to see how he does against the towering oddball that now trains in Ireland. Walker has impressive natural gifts, but it seems like his last two coaches have worked hard to turn him into a patient, technical fighter, which is the antithesis of who he is and who he should be inside the Octagon.
If he can find a way to blend the chaotic activity that produced his first three wins with a little bit more defensive care, I don’t think it’s too far fetched to believe that Walker could put together a Tuivasa-like run at some point, perhaps starting as soon as this weekend.
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett
Q: Can Kyle Daukaus get it moving in the right direction?
I’ve got a lot of time for Kyle Daukaus — he’s an articulate, thoughtful interview subject and a talented emerging middleweight, but my guy is also all kinds of star-crossed.
He didn’t get a contract coming out of his win on DWCS, despite being undefeated and the CFFC middleweight champion. His short-notice debut came against Brendan Allen in a fight he lost, but showed well in, and then he got a victory a few months later over Dustin Stoltzfus, which brings us to last year. In addition to a couple different vacations that didn’t happen, he had two different fights fall out, lost to Phil Hawes, and submitted Kevin Holland, only to have the result overturned right there in the Octagon.
It was the right use of replay and all that, but I still feel for him, especially given that the rematch fell apart and now Holland has moved on to fighting at welterweight and beating up trolls, which is right up there amongst the dumbest things I think I’ve seen in this perpetually dumb sport.
Daukaus returns this weekend, but not without more hurdles, as his original opponent, Julian Marquez, was a late scratch, resulting in Jamie Pickett stepping in and the fight being contested at 195 pounds instead.
I liked the younger half of Philadelphi’a Fighting Daukaus Brothers as a prospect, and still do, but it’s time for him to start putting things together with a little more consistency. The tools are there, but the thing that has been missing — in my opinion — is the confidence to use them. We saw flashes of that in the fight with Holland, before the headbutt, and if he can tap back into that this weekend, he could start a little run of success.
But if it doesn’t happen here, you have to wonder if it will ever happen?
Parker Porter vs. Alan Baudot
Q: Why do unproven teammates continually get unnecessary opportunities?
I have nothing against Alan Baudot — he’s likely a very nice guy, and I get that his first UFC assignment was a short-notice fight after someone else (Serghei Spivac) couldn’t get a visa — but it’s time the UFC move on from doing the whole “friend of a friend” thing, especially when the early results are bad.
Baudot, who trains alongside Ciryl Gane at Paris’ MMA Factory, got crushed by Tom Aspinall in his debut, came back nine months later, and got stopped by Rodrigo Nascimento. That’s all the evidence we need in order to determine that Baudot can’t hang at this level, and since he reached this point on a “My teammate will step in” type of deal, there’s no real reason to keep giving him chances to prove himself. He wasn’t really on the radar to begin with, so let him go get active on the regional scene and work his way to the big leagues like countless others.
Baudot’s third appearance comes a week after Blood Diamond got thoroughly out-classed and put to sleep by Jeremiah Wells, and falls in the long line of “I’ve got a buddy that would love a fight” opportunities we’ve seen handed out in the past that include Martin Sano Jr. getting clocked in 15 seconds, Chris Avila getting UFC fights, plural, and Charlie Ward having a go in the Octagon because he trained with Conor McGregor at SBG Ireland.
For all the moaning you hear about the Contender Series and Ultimate Fighter, at least those competitors end up having to win fights in order to get a look — Baudot was just in the right place, at the right time, with the right teammates and coaches. If you’re going to bitch about newcomers getting added through competitive avenues, keep that same energy when it comes to training partners of fighters you really like too.
Jim Miller vs. Nikolas Motta
Q: Why can’t more veterans age gracefully like Jim Miller?
Miller has written the book on how to continue competing at the top level while also recognizing your best days are behind you, and it’s really been quite enjoyable to watch.
The all-time leader in UFC appearances, Miller has spent the last three years taking a step back. He closed out 2018 with a loss to current champ Charles Oliveira, his fifth loss on six fights, but has since gone 4-3 while taking on a mix of newcomers, fellow veterans, and emerging talents needing a win over an established name. He never complains, never talks about how he’s one or two wins away from making one more run like most of his contemporaries, and never makes excuses, for anything — he just turns up on weight, handles his business, and heads home until it’s time for him to do it again.
More veterans need to follow this path and learn from Miller’s example. He’s extended his time on the big stage by accepting his limitations and continuing to handle himself like a professional at all times, rather than clinging to this belief that he’s still as good as he was five, seven, 10 years ago and complaining about the slate of opponents he’s facing.
He’s the consummate professional, and it’s been a joy to watch how he’s navigated this part of his career.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Adbul Razak Alhassan
Q: Which of these two is the better middleweight dark horse?
Part of what excites me about this pairing — beyond the fact that there is a real possibility someone gets knocked out in spectacular fashion — is that it should help determine which of these two similar middleweights has the greater dark horse potential.
I feel like most peoples’ immediate answer would be Buckley, since he authored one of the best knockouts in UFC history and has earning Performance of the Night bonuses in each of his three UFC wins. He’s also been stopped twice — once in his debut, which I’m willing to give him a pass for, but then again last January — which leaves him at 3-2 heading into Saturday.
Alhassan got wrestled to a decision by Jacob Malkoun in his middleweight debut, but got back to doing what he does best in his sophomore showing at ‘85, knocking out Alessio Di Chirico — the guy that knocked out Buckley in January — with a single, thudding high kick just 17 seconds into their August engagement. He’s 5-4 in the UFC heading into this one, and still hasn’t won a fight that has gone beyond the first round.
Buckley started travelling around to get more looks, spending the final weeks leading up to this one at Xtreme Couture, while Alhassan connected with the Elevation Fight Team crew a couple fights back, so both have good teams around them that will give them the best opportunity to grow as fighters and maximize their skills, which only adds to the evenness of this pairing and difficulty determining which one has the greater long-term upside.
Thankfully, they’re going to step into the Octagon and figure it out for us this weekend.
Jonathan Pearce vs. Christian Rodriguez
Q: Jonathan Pearce’s nickname — fair or foul?
I think about dumb stuff like this a lot.
Pearce, whose nickname is “JSP,” which I can only assume is an homage to Georges St-Pierre (GSP), has always been one of those things that I’m not sure about, like the DH rule in baseball or lentils. On one hand, I get that it’s catchy and a play on one of the best acronyms in the history of the sport, but at the same time, I also have a little bit of a “Really dude?” reaction each time I hear it.
The 29-year-old featherweight is a solid prospect that I want to see more from, and even with a change in opponents this weekend, I still think he’s in a for a tough fight that will tell us more about him, but I also want to know where other people fall on the whole “Can this dude really call himself JSP even though his middle name is Mark?” question.
Mario Bautista vs. Jay Perrin
Q: Is Mario Bautista a person of interest in the bantamweight division?
I didn’t include Bautista on my Fighters to Watch list for the 135-pound weight class, and I’m wondering if I've made a mistake.
Here’s a 28-year-old fighter from a good camp (The MMA Lab), whose first UFC loss came on short notice against an elite contender (Cory Sandhagen), and who has gone 2-1 since, earning bonuses in his two victories before getting clipped and finished last time out. He was undefeated prior to arriving in the UFC, has a good reach for the division, and gives me very real “you’re going to regret not putting him on your list” vibes.
Originally scheduled to face Khalid Taha this weekend, Bautista instead squares off with “Savage” Jay Perrin, a former Contender Series competitor with a 10-4 record overall and consecutive wins on the New England regional circuit since his DWCS loss. It’s not exactly the type of fight that is going to determine whether Bautista is someone to pay close attention to going forward, but it’s a starting point.
Seeing how fighters rebound from losses always feels instructive to me, especially if they’ve been knocked out or handed a serious ass-whipping. Bautista is a quiet, unassuming dude, so it’s not like he’s out here talking all kinds of wildness about that loss and what’s to come, so it’s his effort this weekend that will help show how he’s dealt with that setback.
If he comes out and looks sharp, the pangs of regret I feel for not including him could get even worse.
Gabriel Benitez vs. David Onama
Q: Are we all under-valuing Gabriel Benitez?
I’m going to be honest with you: writing about David Onama a couple times as someone to pay close attention to this weekend and seeing him as the betting favourite in this fight has me thinking we could be trending towards a Blood Diamond / Jeremiah Wells situation in his fight with Gabriel Benitez on Saturday.
Now, I think Onama is a better prospect at this moment than Diamond and was thoroughly impressed with his effort against Mason Jones back in October, but is it wild that a UFC sophomore coming off a loss is favoured against an 11-fight veteran with a history of being a tough out and a couple nasty finishes on his resume?
While I love the opportunity to see Onama test himself against someone as established as Benitez, is this one of those cases where we — and by “we,” I mostly me I — are getting too hyped about a prospect and not giving his tenured opponent enough respect? It’s one of the reasons I love the matchup and can’t wait to see how it plays out, but from a prediction and prospect identification standpoint, it freaks me out because Benitez is one of those guys that could turn up, bury a knee into Onama’s midsection like he did to Justin Jaynes, and walk out of there with a first-round stoppage win, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.
Maybe I’m just feeling extra paranoid and nervous today, but I’m genuinely curious to see if this is one of those times where siding with the veteran would have made a lot more sense.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Stephanie Egger
Q: Can Clark become a Top 15 fighter at bantamweight?
Clark turned 34 in November, but she doesn’t have a ton of miles on her in terms of her fighting career, entering Saturday’s contest with Egger with 18 professional fights. She’s earned consecutive victories on either side of her ACL tear and recovery, and showed in those two efforts that she might be turning a corner in terms of where she fits within the 135-pound weight class.
The Australian has bounced around between divisions throughout her career, but is clearly settled on life at bantamweight, which feels like the right division for her. She’s also settled on training with the crew at CSW in Northern California, which is both a great gym in terms of ensuring she gets consistent, quality coaching, but also a positive step for a fighter who kind of bounced around a little prior to this.
And I’m interested to see what that stability, what being settled and happy and clear on her future does in terms of her performance and career potential.
Questioning whether “Jessy Jess” can climb into the Top 15 might sound overly optimistic for a 34-year-old veteran on a modest two-fight winning streak, but Lina Lansberg has maintained a place in the lower third despite not having fought in two years and last earning a victory in September 2019, so it’s not really that much of an ask, is it?
I’ve always been a fan of Clark’s toughness and mettle, and she showed over her last two fights that she’s starting to put everything together well. If she can push her winning streak to three with a victory over Egger, she could creep into the rankings or at least earn herself a date with someone with a number next to her name later this year.
Chas Skelly vs. Mark Striegl
Q: How will Chas Skelly’s farewell fight go?
Roxanne Modafferi walked away from the sport last weekend, exiting off a one-sided loss to Casey O’Neill that was somehow scored a split decision. This weekend, Skelly is the one making the walk for the final time, stepping into the cage against Mark Striegl in the last bout of an injury-plagued career.
Skelly is one of those guys with a better record than you remember — he’s 18-3 with one No Contest, with a 7-3 (1) mark in the Octagon — who could have had an even better, even longer career, thriving just outside of the Top 15 at featherweight if not for all kinds of injury issues and bad luck. He hasn't fought since September 2019, with four assignments going by the boards since then, and what’s crazy is that through his first nine UFC appearances, the longest layoff he had was nine months.
But his loss to Jason Knight resulted in an extended stay on the sidelines, and he was out of action for 10 months following his bout with Bobby Moffett, and now here we are, two years and change since his win over Jordan Griffin.
This is a tough matchup to forecast because while Striegl got stopped in under a minute in his promotional debut in October 2020 and hasn’t won a fight since September 2018, he’s at least fought this decade…
I’ve always liked Skelly and I want to see him go out on a win, but this sport doesn’t always give you the results you want in situations like this, so we’ll see how it plays out this weekend.
Diana Belbita vs. Gloria de Paula
Q: What is reasonable to expect of Diana Belbita going forward?
“The Warrior Princess” is one of those fighters that has always been intriguing to me, yet I have no idea what to expect from her because she has a bloated record built against middling European competition, but is still only 25 years old.
Belbita reached the UFC with a 13-4 record forged by turning back opponents with a combined 9-15 mark at the time they fought, including doubling up on two opponents. Her Natan Levy Number (+6) isn’t as bad as I anticipated, she had positive moments in her sophomore appearance before getting tapped, and she rebounded with a good win last time out, so what is reasonable to expect of her this weekend and going forward?
Not to be that guy, but I think those questions will actually be answered this weekend when she takes on de Paula, who lost to Jinh Yu Frey in her debut and got kicked in the face by Cheyanne Vlismas last time out.
If she’s going to be someone that has a future in the division, this is a fight she needs to win and win convincingly.
Chad Anheliger vs. Jesse Strader
Q: How far can Chad Anheliger climb now that he’s reached the UFC?
Anheliger making his promotional debut is one of my favourite moments on tap this weekend, as the 35-year-old Canadian has shown tremendous perseverance in clawing back from a 2-5 start to his career to rattle off nine straight victories, earn a UFC contract, and make the walk for the first time this weekend.
Am I biased because he’s a fellow Canuck and won two titles literally an hour up the road from where I’m sitting writing this? Absolutely, but it does’t changed that the Calgary-based veteran has done everything he’s had to do in order to reach this point, including posting a third-round stoppage win over TUF 29 finalist Brady Hiestand and grinding out a good win over the heavily-favoured Muin Gafurov last fall on the Contender Series.
He’s paired off with Strader, who dropped his debut to Montel Jackson 11 months ago and is 0-2 against UFC-caliber talent, so I like his chances to come through with a victory. But bantamweight is flush with talent and he’s an older dude just getting started on the big stage, so I’m genuinely intrigued to see how far “The Monster” can take things over the next year. Anheliger is well-rounded and scrappy, so he won’t be an easy fight for anyone, which means it’s all going to come down to how he’s matched up and who turns up that night.
This is low-key going to be one of my favourite things to keep tabs on this year.