UFC Vegas 47: One Question for Every Fight

It's the first Spencer Card of 2022 and I can't wait to dive into all the weirdo matchups on deck that only get lunatics like excited

This is the first Spencer Card of the year.

Spencer Card: (1) an event with a pair of ranked fighters in the main event and a hodgepodge of bouts between prospects, Contender Series graduates, Fighters I Can’t Quit, and like assembled on the undercard; (2) a card the most prominent voices covering the sport will either shit on or largely ignore; (3) a card where the names might not be familiar or formidable, but action will be outstanding nonetheless.

Before you argue that the first card of the year was an absolute Spencer Card — by definition, it absolutely was, especially after the cancellations — the fact that it was the first card of the year eliminates it from qualifying as such because even with its textbook Spencer Card lineup, the fact that it had been three weeks without a UFC event and it was the opening show of 2022 was enough to get everyone watching.

But this card?

Trust me when I tell you there will be a lot of folks looking at this lineup and dismissing it with quickness simply because they either [a] don’t know enough of the names on the main card, [b] know a couple of the names on the main card and can’t believe they’re on the main card, or [c] making a business decision knowing that they want to watch UFC 271 and then the Super Bowl next Saturday and Sunday, so this weekend is being earmarked for spending time with the family, which even a psycho like me can appreciate.

All of that being said, the reason you come here (and I thank you for coming here) is to get the goods on every fight on every card because you know that’s how I get down, so let’s do it.

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Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
Q: Why isn’t Strickland being 19-0 at middleweight a bigger deal?

Strickland has never lost a fight in the middleweight division.

The three losses on his record came during his eight-fight venture down to welterweight, which never made sense to me in the first place and thankfully isn’t something that is going to ever happen again. But when he’s fighting at 185, the 30-year-old California native is 19-0 overall and 6-0 in the UFC, both of which feel like kind of big deal to me, and yet… crickets.

If you want to toss his first two UFC victories aside because they came in 2014 against Ultimate Fighter alums that washed out of the promotion soon after, fine, but the run he’s been on since returning to action towards the end of 2020 is quality, and I really think people should be talking a whole lot more about Strickland as a serious contender in the middleweight division.

Here’s the thing for me: if he was just 19-0 and riding a six-fight winning streak in the UFC, folks would be tripping over themselves to get a good seat on the bandwagon, but because that run has been broken up by an eight-fight welterweight excursion that yielded mixed results (though he only lost to quality fighters) and was followed by a two-year absence following his motorcycle accident, it’s like that other stuff happened too long ago for people to remember so now it doesn’t really count.

I don’t know how Saturday’s main event is going to play out — Hermansson is an outstanding fighter and it should be a competitive affair — but if Strickland secures another victory, he’ll be no more than one more win away from challenging for the title, and I will be back here shouting about how more people should have seen this coming on Sunday.

Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov
Q: Will Nick Maximov pass his next test?

Fuck it, let’s do this: the folks that put together ESPN’s Top 25 Under 25 should be paying close attention to this weekend’s co-main event because Maximov, who ended up at No. 13 in their rankings, makes his sophomore appearance in the Octagon against Soriano and after an okay-at-best effort in his debut, this feels like a real important bout for the Nick Diaz Academy product and the folks that installed him in the middle of that list.

Maximov is one of those guys that is getting more hype and attention than he should based on his resume simply because of his association with the Diaz Brothers. He’s 7-0 for his career, but his opponents are a combined 19-17, with his last two opponents accounting for 17 of those victories, and his Natan Levy Number* produces an absolutely wild 1-3 combined record. Five of the six people he beat prior to edging out Cody Brundage at UFC 266 never fought again, and the one that did went 1-3 before calling it quits.

Now, maybe this is just one of those things and I’ll be proven wrong over time, but there wasn’t even anything about his performance against Brundage that really stood out to me that makes me feel like Maximov is more than a long-range prospect with a middle-of-the-pack ceiling. While he had to deal with a shift in opponents, going from facing a kickboxer in Karl Roberson to a wrestle-boxing grinder in Brundage, the Factory X Muay Thai representative had like three days notice and was taking it to Maximov down the stretch.

Soriano is coming off a loss to Brendan Allen, but flashed serious power in his first two appearances, comes from a great camp, and is a real stern test for the 24-year-old from member of the Diaz Army.

Maximov barely passed his first test, and I’m not sure how well he’s going to do on this second exam either.

* Natan Levy Number: an MMA formula where you tabulate the combined records of an emerging fighter’s opponents following their meeting in order to get a greater understanding of the level of competition said newcomer faced on their way to the big stage. The better the record, the better the competition, in theory.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris
Q: You’re as excited for this fight as I am, right?

On Monday, Rakhmonov’s manager Daniel Rubenstein posted an IG story asking if anyone was as excited to see the Ruby SE representative back in action this weekend. I didn’t respond because I’d already messaged him about something else earlier in the week and didn’t want to look like I was pandering, but you best believe I shouted, “I am!” while looking at the post.

This was one of the fights included in The Month Ahead, my monthly preview of 10 intriguing fights on tap, and as much as I’m jazzed about it because I want to see Rakhmonov in there again, I’m also excited to see what Harris does for his second encore.

The 34-year-old debuted with a first-round submission win over Christian Aguilera which was slick, but wasn’t going to catch him a ton of credit because Aguilera was kind of just a dude, was coming off a loss, and exited the UFC following that contest. He followed it up, however, with a clean first-round stoppage win over Impa Kasanganay, who’d won his welterweight debut in impressive fashion and was someone everyone agreed was an intriguing long-range prospect.

He too ended up getting released by the UFC following the loss, but the win resonated more for Harris, who now gets a step up in competition and a chance to face an unbeaten emerging prospect that many, myself included, believe has the potential to be a title contender.

This should be fun.

Sam Alvey vs. Brendan Allen
Q: How many middleweights are there at Sanford MMA?

Sam Alvey was originally supposed to face Ian Heinisch, but he was forced to withdraw and was replaced by his teammate Phil Hawes. On Tuesday, Hawes was scratched from the card and replaced by his teammate Brendan Allen, meaning that Alvey has been slated to face three middleweights from the same team this weekend.

In addition to the three-pack of Alvey adversaries, Sanford MMA is also the home base for Marc-Andre Barriault, who already has a fight Saturday, and Derek Brunson and Gregory Rodrigues, who fight later this month, meaning there are six Top 25 UFC middleweights in the room in Deerfield Beach.

If you ever want to know why you’ll frequently hear me advocating for fighters to train with bigger gyms, that’s certainly part of the reason: there is just no substitute for getting good work in with quality training partners.

Allen actually faced the same situation in his last fight, originally signing to face Brad Tavares, before the Hawaiian veteran was briefly replaced by Roman Dolidze, who was then replaced by Chris Curtis, who had Allen’s former opponent, Sean Strickland, in his corner. That fight didn’t go well for Saturday’s late replacement, so it will be interesting to see how Alvey does facing similar circumstances as he looks to snap his seven-fight run without a win.

Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle
Q: Is Bryan Battle poised to be the next standout to come off The Ultimate Fighter?

Battle won the middleweight competition on Season 29 last year and faces Team Ortega’s Tresean Gore, whom he was supposed to face in the finales originally, this weekend, and I get some real “this dude could be a diamond in the rough” vibes from him.

I know folks want to pretend like The Ultimate Fighter hasn’t produced a meaningful name since everyone was watching it back in the day — and up to a certain point, everyone was watching it — but the reality is that TUF still turns out solid fighters.

Don’t believe me? Here’s a list of current UFC fighters that appeared on the long-running reality TV competition in five seasons prior to the show’s return last year:

Brandon Moreno
Alexandre Pantoja
Kai Kara-France
Tim Elliott
Matt Schnell
Dhiego Lima
Lauren Murphy
Sijara Eubanks
Roxanne Modafferi
Montana De La Rosa
Gillian Robertson
Kyler Phillips
Michael Trizano
Bryce Mitchell
Juan Espino
Macy Chiasson
Pannie Kianzad
Leah Letson
Julija Stoliarenko
Bea Malecki

Even for a bunch of middling seasons that folks were completely on out, that’s 10 ranked fighters, including a former champion, plus people like Robertson, De La Rosa, and Phillips that have been ranked in the past and remain close to cracking the Top 15 in their respective divisions.

Battle, who is 6-1 as a pro and coming off a second-round submission win over Gilbert Urbina in August, showed he was coachable and adapted on Season 29 and is one of those young, raw talents that might just keep getting better and better and better as he continues to gain experience. He has good size, a nice, well-rounded foundation, and he’s already shown he’s resilient in there, all of which are early positives as he looks to earn a second consecutive UFC victory this weekend.

Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson
Q: How does Julian Erosa fighting not get your excited?

Whenever people lament the makeup of cards like this, I see a guy like Erosa in the lineup and it makes me wonder if those folks actually watch full events or simply cherry-pick the contests featuring names they know and established contenders, because despite his shortcomings and sub-.500 record in the Octagon, I’m always excited to see Erosa compete.

The former TUF contestant is a Triple A version of Joe Lauzon to me — a guy that is allergic to being in a boring fight and capable of finishing myriad ways, but also might get knocked out or submitted.

He has 35 career fights and only seven of them have gone the distance, with just two of his nine appearances inside the Octagon reaching the judges. He’s 3-1 over his last four, which includes a comeback win over Sean Woodson, a flying knee finish of Nate Landwehr, getting absolutely lamped by SeungWoo Choi, and choking out Charles Jourdain.

Peterson is an attacking fighter from the Fortis MMA crew who is tough to put away, which means Saturday’s main card opener is fixing to be a slobberknocker, and if that doesn’t excite you, I don’t know what to tell you.

Miles Johns vs. John Castaneda
Q: Why aren’t more people talking about Miles Johns?

I already kind of asked and answered this question in spotlighting the Fortis MMA bantamweight in Monday’s edition of Fighter to Watch, but a couple days later, it still feels weird to me that people aren’t talking more about a 3-1 fighter coming off back-to-back nasty knockouts that trains with an outstanding team.

Bantamweight is flush and there are a bunch of dudes ahead of Johns in the pecking order — including Adrian Yanez, who he edged out for the LFA title — but another impressive showing on Saturday against Castaneda has to put “Chapo” into that Jack Shore, Umar Nurmagomedov range where he lands opposite either a tenured Tier 2 veteran (Brian Kelleher, Alejandro Pérez) or a fellow emerging talent next time out.

While I will admit Johns feels like one of those guys that has gotten lost in the shuffle because of the almost non-stop crush of events, it also feels like if more people paid attention to the action in the Octagon and the actual results some of these competitors are putting up and not just their IG stories, guys like Johns would get a little more shine.

Hopefully he can earn some of that on Saturday.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Michael Trizano
Q: Can Hakeem Dawodu take another step forward?

I called this fight a critical one for the Calgary native when talking about the featherweights to watch in 2022 and stick by that assessment now that the bout is quickly approaching.

Dawodu had his five-fight winning streak snapped last time out by Movsar Evloev, and until we know where the unbeaten Russian’s ceiling rests, I’m hesitant to dock the Muay Thai striker too many points for the loss. Trizano is a solid grinder, but he’s nowhere near as dynamic as Evloev, which is why how this fight plays out feels like it will be extremely telling to me. “Mean Hakeem” is a highly technical striker and can out-hustle you on the feet if you stand with him, but now that he’s climbed to this part of the 145-pound hierarchy, there aren’t going to be as many fighters that stubbornly try to just stand and beat him where he’s best if they have other options.

This is one of those fights that could be one-sided in either direction and I’m eagerly looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Q: Will “Powerbar” make me regret not including in the Fighters to Watch?

I’m gonna be honest: even though he’s won consecutive contests, I saw Barriault’s name when I was compiling my lists of fighters to including in each division and thought, “I know where he tops out,” completely forgetting that he’d packed up shop and moved to Deerfield Beach, Florida to train full-time at Sanford MMA.

Now that still might not result in the 31-year-old French-Canadian to force me to offer up a mea culpa either after this fight or later in the year, but it increases the chances because he seems to have found a good rhythm in his last few fights and middleweight is so shallow that a couple more wins would put him on the brink of breaking into the Top 15.

This fight with Njokuani should be a good litmus test for both guys, as the Contender Series grad is far more experienced than most that come off that show, while Barriault is a little younger, a little more rugged, and the kind of mid-pack guy Njokuani is going to see a lot of at the outset of his UFC career. Beating Njokuani would be a good win for Barriault (IMO) and if he can continue having success mucking up these fights and relying on his conditioning and pace, he could leave me looking like a fool for leaving him off the Fighters to Watch list.

Jason Witt vs. Philip Rowe
Q: Will the real Philip Rowe please stand up?

Rowe landed a UFC deal off a third-round finish of Leon Shahbazyan, Edmen’s older brother who is back padding his record on Gladiator Challenge shows now that the two-fight shine has come off his last name, on the final episode of Season 3. He withdrew from a pair of fights in 2020 and when he finally made his promotional debut last February, “The Fresh Prince” got out-hustled by Gabe Green.

Fast-forward five-and-a-half months and Rowe makes his sophomore appearance in the Octagon, absolutely piecing up Orion Cosce, handing the previously unbeaten DWCS grad with a terrible Natan Levy Number a second-round stoppage loss. Rowe looked crisp and confident, using his long reach and boxing up Cosce to the point where the fight could have been stopped even earlier than it was.

So which version of Rowe can we expect on Saturday?

Obviously, I don’t have the answer and it’s one of the reasons I’m looking forward to seeing these two hit the cage, because I know what I’m going to get from Witt, a gorilla of a man and a tough, experienced hand in the cage.

The Rowe that fought Green gets rolled, but the guy that busted up Cosce could win this going away; we’ll just have to see who turns up this weekend.

Alexis Davis vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Q: Can we get a round of applause for Alexis Davis please?

After writing about Jeremy Stephens’ departure from the UFC and the need to give more love to tenured veterans last week, I can’t, in good faith, get to this fight and not make it about the Canadian veteran Davis.

The 37-year-old made her pro debut against Sarah Kaufman in April 2007.

Saturday will be her 32nd fight and her 20 career victories include wins over — in chronological order — Tonya Evinger, Julie Kedzie, Amanda Nunes, Shayna Baszler, Liz Carmouche (twice), Jessica Eye, Kaufman, and Sabina Mazo, and she fought for the UFC bantamweight title. It didn’t last long and I’m not sure she remembers it, but she did indeed challenged Ronda Rousey at UFC 175.

We often get all “let’s give it up for” these male veteran that we’ve watched in countless battles, guys like Stephens or Jim Miller, but rarely do we extend that same outward show of respect to their female counterparts that have been putting in work for just as long (if not longer) and are still plying their trade at the highest level all the same.

And Davis took a break in there to have a kid too!

So yeah, can we get a round of applause for Davis, please?

Jailton Almeida vs. Danilo Marques
Q: Which type of DWCS grad will Jailton Almeida be?

So far this year, members of the DWCS Class of ‘21 are 4-3 inside the Octagon, with non-graduate Joseph Holmes also catching a loss.

The competitors that showed promise coming off the show — ‘Slava Borshchev, Jasmine Jasudavicius, Jack Della Maddalena, Michael Morales — all earned solid wins over the first two events, while the cats that felt a little over-hyped to me — Joanderson Brito, Genaro Valdez, Saimon Oliveira — each caught Ls. Almeida makes his promotional debut on Saturday, and I’m eager to see whether he lines up with the victors or the vanquished after sharing the Octagon with Marques this weekend.

I’m inclined to lean towards the latter of the two because even though there are some familiar names on his resume and he beat a guy with a pristine record to earn his UFC deal, those Brazilian veterans he beat are washed and Nasrudin Nasrudinov didn’t exactly beat a whole lot of quality to get to 9-0 before losing to Almeida.

Marques has flaws and he’s a little older, but we’ve already seen him have some success inside the Octagon, so this should be a solid test for the 30-year-old newcomer.

And in case you’re wondering, “30-year-old newcomer” is another red flag for me, especially when you’re fighting randoms, retreads, and professional opponents before reaching the biggest stage in the sport.

Malcolm Gordon vs. Denys Bondar
Q: Does anyone have anyone have any clue what to expect from Denys Bondar?

Bondar is one of those dudes that has been waiting to make his UFC debut for a handful of fights now, getting booked and scratched from two fights last year before this fight with Gordon was pushed back when the Canadian got hit with an illness towards the end of 2021. The COVID era has produced a few competitors like that who for one reason or another get booked, but never seem to make it to the Octagon, which automatically ups their “What’s the scoop with this person?” factor for me.

What complicates matters more with the 29-year-old new arrival is that he has fought absolutely no one of substance as far as I can tell, and enters Saturday’s contest on a 10-fight winning streak where he’s beaten two opponents twice and appears to have fought at least a couple people that were in their late teens or very early 20s along the way.

I can’t say with any certainty whether he’s been wrecking dudes because he’s an absolute killer or because he’s been stuck in there with a bunch of weekenders and novices that are happy to grab some show money and call it a day, but I tell you what — it makes me extremely interested to see how Saturday’s opener plays out.