UFC 263 Title View: Middleweight Division
Taking a deepish dive on the 185-pound weight class ahead of this weekend's main event championship pairing
Saturday night in Glendale, Arizona, Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori will reconvene at the location of their first encounter for a five-round rematch, and this time, the UFC middleweight title is hanging in the balance.
The champion and challenger enter facing their own unique set of questions and this weekend’s UFC 263 main event has the potential to be a monumental clash in the 185-pound ranks.
Let’s take a closer look at the division ahead of this championship battle, shall we?
The Champion
Israel Adesanya
Record: 20-1 overall, 9-1 UFC
Adesanya enters this weekend’s fight on a down note for the first time in his UFC career, arriving in the desert following the first loss of his career, returning to the division he’s ruled for the last 19 months after getting out-struck and out-wrestled by Jan Blachowicz back in March.
The positive spin version of that result is that the middleweight champion was taking a chance, moving up a division without really moving up a division and simply fell pray to a bigger, stronger, experience champion. The negative spin version is that Blachowicz exposed some of the holes in Adesanya’s game and shattered his aura of invincibility in the process, making him less of a unconquerable boogeyman to middleweight challengers going forward.
It’s most likely a mix of both, and this return to middleweight is an opportunity for Adesanya to re-establish his dominance, which produced nine consecutive victories upon arrival in the UFC and 20 consecutive wins overall to begin his mixed martial arts career.
One of the interesting things you notice when parsing the resume of the City Kickboxing representative is that since he’s ascended into the title conversation (so post-Brunson), the results haven’t been as much of a home run as those earlier outings. He did little in uneventful victories over aging holdovers Anderson Silva and Yoel Romero, got pushed to his absolute limit by Kelvin Gastelum, whose best divisional win is Tim Kennedy?, and unified the titles in a clash with Robert Whittaker just a handful of months before “The Reaper” pressed pause on his career due to burnout.
The performance against Paulo Costa was masterful, and I’m not looking to rewrite Adesanya’s history, it’s just that if you look at things in context of when they happened and what has happened since, some of those efforts don’t hold up as well as they did in the moment, which ratchets up the intrigue heading into this one.
Note: the “other side of the coin” to everything above is that he did all he needed to in order to beat Silva and Romero without putting himself in harm’s way, rose to the occasion when the chips were down against Gastelum, showing his championship mettle, and beat Whittaker so handily that you have to wonder if things would go differently a second time around. Again, I’m not trying to take away from what he’s accomplished, but I don’t want to just look at the “best possible version” of those results either.
Adesanya is at his best when he’s working as a counter fighter — slipping attacks and responding in kind; connecting from unique angles, luring opponents into traps, varying his attacks in terms of type, tempo, and target, and frustrating guys looking to crowd him, cut him off, and beat him in a slugfest. He’s judicious with his output, as the most strikes he’s landed in a fight (119) coming in his victory over Brad Tavares, but isn’t a threat to change levels, and the fight with Blachowicz showed that he’s susceptible to getting taken down when an opponent sets things up well or times their entries well.
As weird as this may sound, this feels like a real crossroads fight for Adesanya, who has been largely dismissive of Vettori and his chances. He’s coming off his first loss and dealing with a recent personal loss as well, following the tragic death of his teammate Fau Vake, both of which have to play with your mind a little, for very different reasons, obviously.
The champion is unbeaten in this weight class and feels like he has a point to prove, so just in case you weren’t feeling this one as much as prior Adesanya matchups, fix that because it should be all kinds of fun, no matter what happens.
The Challenger
Marvin Vettori
Record: 17-4-1 overall, 7-2-1 UFC
Vettori is pretty much the only person that believes he beat Adesanya the first time around, but honestly, that result doesn’t really matter at this point because since then, the 27-year-old Italian is 5-0, growing into the more fully formed version of himself and that guy is a goddamn menace.
The challenger feels like one of those competitors that the MMA Twitter community just likes to clown because he wears garish outfits, speaks exceptionally highly about his skills and confidently about what will transpire this weekend, and isn’t as naturally cool and playful and quippy as Adesanya, all of which is understandable, but none of which has any bearing on the fight itself.
Inside the Octagon, the Kings MMA product has become a pace and pressure monster, weaponizing his outstanding cardio and overall relentlessness to create a swarming, smothering, suffocating style that is exhausting to watch, yet alone contend with. Unlike his wardrobe choices, there is no flash to Vettori’s game — he’s a fundamentally sound striker with a little pop; a gritty top position grinder with more of a submission game than anyone remembers or lets on; and an intensely focused, self-assured soul who has been getting markedly better each time out since his first encounter with Adesanya.
Sure, he followed the same blueprint Derek Brunson laid out against Kevin Holland, but he was still able to execute it, which counts for something, and he absolutely dominated Jack Hermansson late last year in what to me was his real breakout performance. He looked so damn good in that fight, giving Hermansson little room to breathe from the outset, and we’ve seen since then how solid “The Joker” is inside the Octagon.
While there haven’t been the typical Top 5 wins we come to expect challengers to have before the fight for the title or we consider the possibility of them actually leaving as champion, you have to acknowledge that it’s at least possible that Vettori is still in the midst of his upswing as an athlete and a competitor and Saturday could be the point where he takes yet another step forward and shows he’s more than capable of hanging with the absolute best the 185-pound ranks have to offer.
Given how good he’s looked, especially over his last three, and the way Adesanya was beaten by Blachowicz just a couple months ago, are you not at least a little intrigued by the potential of Vettori trying to wrestle “The Last Stylebender” into oblivion on Saturday night?
The Next Man Up
Robert Whittaker
Record: 23-5 overall, 14-3 UFC
First things first: Whittaker didn’t get skipped or screwed or anything like that; he was given the chance to face Adesanya this weekend, but wasn’t interested in the tight turnaround, so the UFC went with Vettori and Whittaker remains, as the subhead says, the next man up.
More and more with each passing fight since his loss to Adesanya and brief sabbatical, Whittaker looks like the guy that ruled the division for a couple good years. He’s arguably the most complete fighter in the weight class and when he’s locked in, he’s tough to beat because he moves well, can wrestle if and when he needs to, and is always in tremendous shape. Plus, as we saw in some of his earlier championship bouts, he’s really good at making adjustments on the fly and figuring out what he needs to do in order to secure a victory, which are two intangibles that often separate the great from the very good.
Earlier this year, he dominated Kelvin Gastelum, following the same approach he used to out-hustle Jared Cannonier last fall and to defeat Darren Till before that. It’s simple, but effective in the same way a good piece of protein, seasoned well and cooked properly, is always terrific — you don’t need the flourishes when you can crush the fundamentals, and Whittaker has his fundamentals on lock.
Now, it’s possible that he’s just up against it in a matchup against Adesanya; the champion’s style serving as his personal brand of kryptonite. Their first meeting looked brutal if you’re #TeamWhittaker and it might not be as much about the former titleholder being burnt out as it is that Adesanya is just a matchup nightmare. I’m not sure, which is why I’m desperate to see the rematch, whenever it happens.
I do think, however, that this version of Whittaker is even better than the one that rose to the top of the division and navigated some dangerous title defences, because he’s making the choices that make the most sense for him, which means he’s always turning up in top form, and when he’s in top form, he’s one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
In the Mix
Paulo Costa: the Brazilian is starting to get dangerously close to spending a full year on the sidelines following his loss to Adesanya, and with his latest complaints about fighter pay, it might be a while before we see him back in action. When he’s competing and at his best, he’s a hard-charging powerhouse with the power to alter fights in a single blow and incalculable confidence, though it will be interesting to see if that has change now that he’s tasted defeat… or is he just going to chalk that up to too much shiraz or pinot noir and call it a day?
Jared Cannonier: the UFC’s “Incredible Shrinking Man” started his middleweight tenure with a really nice run, but then a torn pectoral muscle and subsequent loss to Whittaker in his return caused him to kind of stall out for the moment. He was supposed to fight Costa in August, but instead will face Kelvin Gastelum in a fight that feels like it has nothing but down side for the fringe contender.
Derek Brunson: the last time we spoke, Brunson and I joked about how he’s become the guy the UFC calls when there is an emerging talent that needs to prove they’re a contender, and how he’s beaten enough of them at this point that the company should find someone else if they’re trying to get these guys over. While he’s not fighting a neophyte next time out, he’s still facing someone I have a ton of questions about, Darren Till, and a win there should, in theory, carry the consistent veteran into the Top 5.
Jack Hermansson: “The Joker” is a perfect example of how a little time can change the way you perceive a certain result, as his win over Gastelum doesn’t carry as much weight today as it did then, but getting steamrolled by Vettori isn’t so bad now either, given that he’s fighting for gold on Saturday. I have a feeling Hermansson tops out in the 4-8 range in the rankings, but every division needs those guys and he puts on consistently entertaining fights, so you’ll never hear me complain about seeing him on a fight card.
Darren Till: I hinted at it above, but yeah, I still have questions about Till and his standing as a contender. I never liked the expedited title shot he received at welterweight (didn’t think he beat “Wonderboy” convincingly enough to merit a shot) and I’m baffled by how barely beating Gastelum, who has been tanking, qualifies him as a contender at middleweight. Give me a dominant effort or two and I might change my mind.
Uriah Hall: the 36-year-old TUF alum has looked very good since moving to Fortis MMA and feels like the dark horse of the division, though what happened in his fight with Chris Weidman kind of cooled his momentum a little. He’s now fighting with greater confidence, greater presence, and it’s paid off, though he has a tough assignment on tap at the end of next month.
The Wild Cards
Kevin Gastelum: it just felt weird not including Gastelum in this comprehensive look at the division, so I shoe-horned him into this section just to have him involved. On one hand, you have to compliment him for constantly stepping up to face top contenders needing new dance partners, but on the other hand, he’s 1-4 in his last five fights and despite only being 29 years old, looks slowed and shopworn in a way that makes you think there is no real coming back from it. We’ll see how he does against Cannonier before making a full-blown assessment.
Sean Strickland: Strickland has won three straight since returning from a two-year absence following a nasty motorcycle accident, pushing his overall winning streak to four while remaining unbeaten in the middleweight ranks. Because he fought at welterweight for a while, people seem to forget (or not look closely enough to realize) that he went 15-0 in the 185-pound ranks before switching divisions and is back to being a menace at middleweight now. Fundamentally sound and with a couple screws loose, Strickland is a problem and could be a contender by the end of the year.
The Next Wave
Brendan Allen: the 25-year-old Allen rebounded from a stoppage loss to Strickland with a submission win over Karl Roberson last time out, his first victory since making the full-time move to training with Sanford MMA. He’s always been an elite prospect and just needs time to figure a couple things out before he’s a fixture in the Top 15. Another big win over Punahele Soriano this summer would further solidify his standing as well.
Phil Hawes: it took some time, but Hawes is finally delivering on his potential, having earned three straight UFC victories and seven consecutive wins overall to emerge on the fringes of the Top 15 heading into the second half of the year. There are still a couple things he needs to fine-tune and get fully dialled in, but he’s an impressive athlete with serious power and very good wrestling, and those things alone are enough to make him a rough assignment for anyone looking to move forward or maintain their place in the pecking order.
Anthony Hernandez: “Fluffy” has been inconsistent thus far in his UFC career, but has to be included here after submitting Rodolfo Vieira. Now, that result has the potential to become a somewhat meaningless, but still cool, feather in his cap if Vieira flames out in MMA (as he appears poised to do), but Hernandez is still only 27, owns a win over Allen from their days in LFA, and is a proven finisher, so there is still upside that could be mined.
Kevin Holland: I’ve written about Holland and his struggles this year on two different occasions — here and here — so I won’t spend a lot of time on him other than to say that I appreciate that he’s trying to work on his wrestling with the crew at AKA and that I feel he can still be a factor if he dials back the bravado and bluster 10-15% and just fights, saving the talking for after.
Andre Muniz: when you snap “Jacare” Souza’s arm, you get my attention, not that I wasn’t already paying attention to Muniz before hand. Now 3-0 in the UFC and riding a seven-fight winning streak overall, the 31-year-old Brazilian feels like the new man occupying the “most dangerous submission grappler int he division” throne, and that makes him an intriguing figure to keep tracking going forward.
Makhmud Muradov: admittedly, I wasn’t sold on Muradov after his first couple UFC appearances, but there comes a point where a guy has won so many fights (three straight in the UFC, 14 straight overall) that you have to just buy in and see what happens. The 31-year-old’s results merited a bigger step up in competition than a date with Gerald Meerschaert (no disrespect to GM3), but another strong showing should bring that elevation to a different competitive tier later this year.
Edmen Shahbazyan: there are definitely things he needs to work on, and getting to a bigger gym with better wrestling and more experienced training partners would be at the top of my wish list for him, but despite consecutive poor showings, I’m just going to keep repeating that Shahbazyan is 23 years old and has plenty of time to figure things out still. That being said, the window of opportunity closes a little more with each successive drubbing.
Punahele Soriano: the Xtreme Couture product is 8-0 overall and 2-0 in the UFC with a pair of first-round stoppage wins, with an assignment against Allen up next. That’s a massive fight as far as prospects go, with the winner taking the mantle of top middleweight upstart heading into the final quarter of the year. Brandishing clean striking, proven power, and that Hawaiian toughness, Soriano should have a Brad Tavares-like career at the absolute worst, while carrying far more upside than his friend and training partner.
Jordan Wright: the 29-year-old Wright is one of those guys I struggle to take seriously because (a) he mauled scrubs before landing on the Contender Series, (b) he got steamrolled by “Fluffy” on the Contender Series, and (c) he just doesn’t look the part, at all, of a promising middleweight, but lo and behold, “The Beverly Hills Ninja” is 2-1 in the UFC and coming off another impressive first-round finish. I do want to see him in there with someone with a little more experience/confidence/poise, but for now, Wright deserves props for what he’s done and a place in this grouping until the results dictate otherwise.
Other Names to Know
Kyle Daukaus: I still believe Daukaus will have a long, largely successful career in the Octagon, even though he’s 1-2 through his first three starts. Losing to Allen and Hawes is nothing to be too disappointed about, especially that each was a hastily put together pairing. He showed too much promise fighting on the tough East Coast regional scene to wash out quickly, so don’t be surprised if he puts together a little run here soon and cements his place on the roster.
Dricus Du Plessis: when the only man to beat you in your last dozen fights is Roberto “Robocop” Soldic, you have my attention. Du Plessis slept Markus Perez in his debut, but has been sidelined since due to visa issues, which has cooled his momentum and means he’s got more ground to make up in order to make waves. Still only 27 years old, the former EFC standout is one to keep close tabs on through his next few fights, including his July matchup with the man below him on this list, which should clarify whether he’s a potential contender or an entertaining middle-of-the-pack fighter going forward.
Trevin Giles: I can tell you right now that Giles is a future “Fighter I Can’t Quit” because looking at what he did during his time in LFA and the overall promise he shows, I will always feel like he’s just a couple adjustments away from making a run. He’s 14-2 overall, has won three straight, and doesn’t train full time… think about that. Hopefully, he can remedy that situation soon because if he does, his nickname (“The Problem”) will be even more apt.
Nassourdine Imavov: Imavov won his promotional debut, then lost a narrow decision to Hawes in their shared sophomore appearance in the Octagon. He’s slated to face Ian Heinisch midway through next month and it’s the kind of pairing that could, if he’s successful, elevate the MMA Factory fighter into “The Next Wave.” There is a lot of to like about the 25-year-old “Russian Sniper” and he should be challenging for a place in the Top 15 in the next couple years, if not sooner.
Aliaskhab Khizriev: I’m putting Khizriev here because he’s a “could go either way” type in that he’s 13-0 as a pro, finishing four of his last five opponents in rapid fashion, but might also be one of those unbeaten guys that suddenly looks mediocre when he starts facing real competition. He was slated to face Daukaus earlier this year, but had to withdraw due to COVID protocols, so until there is evidence indicating which way this is more likely to go, he’ll remain here as an intrigue unknown to track.
Tafon Nchukwi: the Contender Series grad was one of my “dark horse contenders” earlier this year when I discussed the topic with my guy Dan Tom and I still stand by the selection, even though he got housed last time out. There are too many quality building blocks there for him not to develop into a solid middleweight long term, and if he really figures things out, I genuinely believe he can become a menace. That said, a strong showing in his next outing is a must or else I might have to abandon ship and offer up a mea culpa.
Junyong Park: Park is the one that put it on Nchukwi last time out, and it’s high time we give “The Iron Turtle” his due as an emerging middleweight. The South Korean has won three straight, and 10 of 11 since starting his career with a 3-3 mark, and seems to have figured out how to fight to his strengths over these last couple. Matchups are always key at this stage of things, so I’m curious to see who Park faces next and where that leads.
Title View is a recurring series that takes a detailed look at a division in advance of a championship fight in that weight class. Previous instalments can be found here:
UFC 263: Flyweight Division