UFC 278: You Wanna Make a Bet?
Yeah, I'm making the betting selections segment from the last two weeks into its own series — d'you got a problem with that?
You had to know it was only a matter of time before I spun the betting segment off into its own series, right? This isn’t simply a “get more clicks” play though, as you might be thinking, since I’ve never really done anything on this platform for the clicks.
Here’s why I’m doing it:
Some folks want fight predictions. Others want betting picks. A few might want both. Now everyone can check out the things they like in individual Friday posts each and every week.
Additionally, I want to give the betting selections the same amount of prominence as the predictions because I’ve putting as much time and energy into them, and having them tacked onto the end of the Punch Drunk Predictions made them feel a little buried, a little afterthought-y to me, and that just isn’t how I want to present them.
Lastly, this is not a rash decision made after one very good week of returns because I know all too well from years of personal experience that all you can do is keep trying to make sound plays and let the chips fall where they may, knowing that every one of those good days is going to have a corresponding not so good day to go with it. I was trying to grind out little profits at the track before I knew who Joey Knish was, but lemme tell you, I sure did identify with his approach once I made his acquaintance.
Now, in regards to last week… that’s the best-case scenario right there: a nice early stack that lands, making it so that no matter what happens the rest of the night, you’re coming home up money. Shouts to Tyson Nam!
But as I said earlier (and last week, and will say every week) the key is to not go chasing those same scores, those same results week-after-week because that’s when you start throwing money away, and I don’t want anyone throwing money away.
As always, please bet responsibly — don’t spend anything you can’t afford to lose, don’t take any of this too seriously, and if you think you’ve got a problem, please reach out for help, either to friends or the gambling awareness network in your area; here are some links for Canada and the United States.
And with that… on to this week’s plays and explanations.
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UFC San Diego Results
Units Wagered: 6.0
Units Returned: 13.95
Difference: +7.95
2022 Betting Selections Results
YTD Wagered: 14.0u
YTD Returned: 20.78u
YTD Difference: +6.78u
ROI: 48.43% (small sample size alert)
UFC 278 Betting Selections & Explanations
0.25u Punch Drunk Prediction Main Card Parlay +583
0.25u Punch Drunk Prediction Parlay +12139
These two will be here each and every week because if I go perfect on the main card or the entire event with my picks and don’t turn that into the kind of win that gives me massive returns, how would you possibly trust me when it comes to the rest of these plays?
0.25u Kamaru Usman KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 +800
0.25u Kamaru Usman KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 +1000
0.25u Kamaru Usman KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 +1400
0.25u Kamaru Usman KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 +2000
0.25u Kamaru Usman KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 +2800
Usman by stoppage at any time in the fight is +240
He has exactly one (1) submission win on his resume — his TUF 21 win over Hayder Hassan — and while he hasn’t been a finishing machine over his career, I feel like he’s trending more in that direction of late and these odds are too good not to lay out a combined 1.25u to where if he gets a stoppage, I’m making a bare minimum of 0.75u.
0.25u Luke Rockhold Win +275
I’m not overly confident that Rockhold gets the job done — I picked Costa in the Punch Drunk Predictions — but this is a little hedge against that because the Brazilian isn’t exactly a model of consistency and composure, and if Rockhold is anywhere near the guy he was on the way to winning the middleweight title, I could see him getting the victory.
1.50u Jose Aldo Win +110
0.50u Jose Aldo Decision +225
0.50u Jose Aldo Finish +400
Be prepared to see a lot of wagers like this when you come to check out my betting selections, and not just on underdogs that I think are going to win either; I like this approach with favourites just as much… maybe even more, honestly, if the odds are right.
I think Aldo wins, and the chance to double my money on him is not only too good to avoid, but too good to not put a little something extra on it as well, hence the largest single-bet outlay of the year… which is three weeks, but still.
Given that I think he wins outright, adding on the two potential methods in here only makes sense as additional bets.
In total, I’ve invested 2.5u and if Aldo is victorious, my low-end return is still a 0.28u profit, which I’ll take every day.
1.00u Tyson Pedro KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 -125
0.50u Tyson Pedro Submission in Round 1 +400
Pedro is most likely going to smash Harry Hunsucker, who hasn’t made it out of the first round in each of his two previous UFC appearances.
While the R1 TKO line is fine (-125) and covers the half-unit SUB wager while still ensuring a profit, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes with a rear-naked choke, which would provide a nice return in a fight that feels like a squash match.
0.75u Alexandr Romanov Wins in Round 1 +240
0.50u Alexandr Romanov Wins in Round 2 +375
0.50u Alexandr Romanov Wins in Round 3 +650
Romanov is a sizeable favourite over Marcin Tybura (-400) and the “By KO, TKO, DQ or Sub” line isn’t great either (-120), so why not invest in some round selections?
This is one of those, “I’ve done the math to make sure I’m turning a profit” situations where as long as Romanov wins via stoppage, I will make a profit.
0.50u Aoriqileng KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 +900
0.25u Aoriqileng KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 +1400
0.25u Aoriqileng KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 +2000
He bombed on Cameron Else last time out, and while Jay Perrin is probably going to have more to offer than Else, I still think we see a stoppage and this is a nice way to get in on that action without too much exposure
0.25u Daniel Da Silva + Jose Aldo Both Win +404
Da Silva is in a coin-flip fight to start the night, so add him with Aldo and see if we can turn 0.25u into 1.01u
Total Wagers: 9.00u
Here’s hoping we cash some tickets!