UFC Vegas 38: Punch Drunk Predictions
Thiago Santos or Johnny Walker? Kevin Holland or Kyle Daukaus? Who emerges victorious on Saturday night?
I love this card.
Regardless of how I end up doing with these picks, I’m genuinely excited for this weekend’s event because, as I said last night in 10 Things I Like, this weekend’s card is one of those “Nobody is really talking about it much, but there is a lot to like here” kind of shows that always gets me excited and ends up getting solid post-event reviews from all the folks that were sleeping on it until Saturday afternoon.
All of the main card fights carry some form of intrigue, and several of the preliminary card pairings do as well. We’re going to come away from this knowing more about a couple burgeoning prospects than we did going in (for better or worse) and a couple divisional pictures will be adjusted as well, plus, Alex Oliveira is fighting Niko Price and there is no way that can be boring.
Plus, I’m coming off the best week this year in the Punch Drunk Predictions, having gone 11-1 last weekend at UFC 266 (damn you, Jalin Turner!) and I want to see if I can keep things moving in a positive direction towards my adjusted year-end goals.
Here we go.
Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
There is a very real possibility that I get this one terribly wrong, but I just don’t think Johnny Walker and his wildness can avoid getting hit with something that scrambles his circuits for 25 minutes against Santos. It probably won’t take anywhere near that long, and might not take more than five minutes for this one to be decided, but as much as Santos has struggled of late, I’ll take the guy that has fought for the title and lost to a pair of Top 5 talents in his last two outings over the guy that goes into these exchanges with 50/50 odds of getting knocked out.
Walker was on skates twice in his fight with Ryan Spann. He doesn’t defend well. He doesn’t really defend at all, and while there have been a couple instances where he hasn’t needed to defend, I tend to think Santos knows he needs to be active right out of the chute and not let Walker gather steam and walk him down.
I honestly think we might see an early level-change from Santos, just to keep Walker guessing, because his takedown defence hasn’t been great, his ability to get back to his feet was nonexistent against Nikita Krylov, and Santos could do serious damage from top position.
Maybe I’m holding out hope that “Marreta” hasn't hit the point where his career falls off a cliff and I’ll have to reckon with that Sunday if he gets blown out here, but I believe he’s still skilled enough, dangerous enough to get the job done here.
Prediction: Thiago Santos by TKO
Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus
I’m tortured by this fight because from a raw talent and upside standpoint, Holland is a couple steps ahead of Daukaus, but hard work beats talent when talent refuses to work hard, right? And I just don’t know whether Holland is ever going to be a guy that is more focused on working hard and maximizing his talent than he is on being a UFC fighter, dropping memes on social media, and having a couple years where he’s a guy people are talking about in the sport.
Harsh? Maybe, but what about his first two fights this year tells you Kevin Holland wants to be great? That he recognizes he has legitimate skills and an opportunity to be a Top 10 fixture if he’d develop a little more of a want? I know he’s gone to work on his wrestling and address that issue, and that’s great, but I need to see it. I want to see it.
All that said, I still have to pick him because of that raw talent gap; because even if he hasn’t fully addressed his shortcomings and the things that frustrate me about him as a fighter — which I discussed in full in a pair of columns (Part I and Part II) following his two losses this year — I believe he’s still naturally skilled enough to get by Daukaus.
I think this ends up being similar to Holland’s fights with Alessio Di Chirico and Gerald Meerschaert where they’re closer than most would anticipate and maddening to watch if you’re a Holland supporter, but ultimately, he’ll get the job done.
Prediction: Kevin Holland by unanimous decision
Alex Oliveira vs. Niko Price
This feels like it’s going to be a get-right fight for Niko Price — a pairing with someone that is going to happily engage in the kind of wild, frenetic, “leave it all out there” battle he loves where “The Hybrid” will find some kind of finish and get back into the win column.
Donald Cerrone didn’t do that. Surprisingly, Michel Pereira didn’t do it either, and in those two fights, Price was a little lost early, unsure of how to force that style upon his opponents and be effective with his offence. I really do believe he thrives in chaos, and when opponents don’t meet him on his terms or carry the same “let’s get wild” predilection, he struggles.
But Oliveira has always been happy to mix things up, and his last couple fights show that he’s also slowing down a little, losing a little of that gameness that made him a perpetual tough out. That’s not to take anything away from Shavkat Rakhmonov or Randy Brown, who both looked phenomenal and handle their business, but once Oliveira was in a rough spot, the fight was done, and it wasn’t always like that with him.
Regardless, I think Price rolls — he comes out, gets after it, and gets things done inside the first five minutes, hurting Oliveira and then lacing up a choke to get the finish.
Prediction: Niko Price by submission
Misha Cirkunov vs. Krzysztof Jotko
This is the most intriguing fight of the main card to me because I’m genuinely unsure of how Cirkunov fits in the middleweight division and believe this is an excellent first fight to help figure that out.
I’m siding with Cirkunov because I do think his grappling abilities have always been a trump card for him in close matchups against guys that can’t just roll out and light him up with one shot, which isn’t something Jotko is going to do. I don’t know how much that ends up telling us about where he mixes in going forward at middleweight, but maybe he looks genuinely dominant with his grappling and that provides a little inclining about that kind of thing.
The more interesting thing to watch here (for me, at least) is if he struggles to take this fight to the ground and how he responds, because that will be a red flag to remember going forward. I still think he could run into trouble against some of the fighters in the Top 10, Top 15, but I believe he’ll get the victory here.
Prediction: Misha Cirkunov by submission
Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden
As much as I would really appreciate the “And Now The Circle is Complete” nature of Breeden walking in and scoring a first-round knockout the way Hernandez did when he was the short-notice newcomer, I just can’t see it happening.
While I’ve never been as high on Hernandez as some, I do believe he’s the much better fighter here and should be able to win this one handily by blending his wrestling with his striking and just suffocating Breeden with pressure and pace.
Prediction: Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Joe Solecki def. Jared Gordon
Casey O’Neill def. Antonina Shevchenko
Karol Rosa def. Bethe Correia
Devonte Smith def. Jamie Mullarkey
Douglas Silva def. Gaetano Pirrello
Stephanie Egger def. Shanna Young
Alejandro Perez def. Johnny Eduardo
2021 PDP Record: 210-155-4, 4 NC (.563)